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2024-10-09 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Hurricane Milton: Live updates tracking the storm's path

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Posted by Fred 2024-10-09 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11133 views ] Top

#1 at 800am EDT, the hurricane weakened slightly from the 500am status

continued weakening is expected until landfall because of upper winds sheeting the vertical uplift field

however it will likely be at Cat 3 or 4 at landfall

as of now the eye is very small and hurricane winds only extend about 30 miles from the center of the storm

however, as the storm weakens, the hurricane force wind field is expected to expand

the eye of the storm may make landfall south of Tampa Bay but, if this happens, it will still result in 5+ feet of storm surge in Tampa Bay and of course the worst will be just to the south of the eyewall's landfall

Posted by Lord Garth 2024-10-09 09:44|| 2024-10-09 09:44|| Front Page Top

#2 at 1100am EDT the hurricane has weakened a bit more although still a category 4 storm

forecasts confident of continued weakening but landfall will likely be at least a category 2 storm

forecasts becoming confident that landfall will occur south of Tampa Bay; Bradenton or Sarasota FL may get the eyewall passing over it.

Posted by Lord Garth 2024-10-09 12:35|| 2024-10-09 12:35|| Front Page Top

#3 at 2pm the Hurricane is down to just 1 mph above category 3

Since 5am the central pressure has gone up b about 40mb and the peak wind speed has gone down by about 30mph

Still a dangerous storm and the weakening of the central pressure vortex has, as expected, resulted in an expansion of the wind field

Central vortex landfall is likely to be after dark this evening and is still expected to be south of Tampa Bay

Posted by Lord Garth 2024-10-09 14:11|| 2024-10-09 14:11|| Front Page Top

#4 Waffle House, citing the Waffle House Index, closes Tampa locations ahead of Hurricane Milton

It’s serious

Posted by Beavis 2024-10-09 14:53|| 2024-10-09 14:53|| Front Page Top

#5 Am I seeing Tornado Excitement?

Posted by swksvolFF 2024-10-09 17:19|| 2024-10-09 17:19|| Front Page Top

#6 At 5pm EDT hurricane down to category 3. Hurricane winds still a small area but tropical storm force winds have expanded especially to the north. Still about 6 hours to landfall

Posted by Lord garth 2024-10-09 18:22|| 2024-10-09 18:22|| Front Page Top

#7 At 800pm EDT, the eye of the storm is just about to come ashore (faster than I thought it would). The center of the vortex will come ashore in the vicinity of Sarasota.

It is enough south that the damage to Tampa will be less than expected. Of course Sarasota and especially the barrier islands on the coast will be hit very hard.

Posted by Lord Garth 2024-10-09 20:03|| 2024-10-09 20:03|| Front Page Top

#8 at 930 pm EDT, the entire eye of the hurricane is onshore

I haven't seen any reports of sustained wind speeds over 75 mph yet but that doesn't mean there aren't any. Also I've seen no reports yet of 8' + storm surge partly because it is dark and the webcams aren't going to be able to show it.

Posted by Lord Garth 2024-10-09 21:34|| 2024-10-09 21:34|| Front Page Top

#9 at 1100pm EDT. Hurricane moving across central FL at about 17 mph which will take it to the Atlantic Ocean by about sunrise local time. It is, based on radar, now a category 2 storm but continuing to weaken and will likely be a category 1 storm when it moves offshore into the Atlantic.

Some ferocious precipitation rates have been recorded with 3, 4 and even 5" of rain in an hour. The highest wind I saw reported was 86 mph but no doubt other reports have yet to come in. Again I have not seen reports of severe storm surge but as it is night we will have to wait for morning to ascertain what happened on that issue.

Posted by Lord Garth 2024-10-09 23:05|| 2024-10-09 23:05|| Front Page Top

#10 Thank you, Lord Garth. I was able to be knowledgeably comforting at dinner tonight, based on your reports here, so you have done a mitzvah.

Posted by trailing wife 2024-10-09 23:15|| 2024-10-09 23:15|| Front Page Top

23:29 trailing wife
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