Article

2022-11-10 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by badanov 2022-11-10 00:00|| || Front Page|| [12 views ] Top

#1 Armies without supply lines wither and die. Once the bridges across the Dnieper were destroyed, this outcome was inevitable. The Russians could make a dramatic last-man-standing attempt to hold Kherson but the cost would be high and the end result would be the same. Retreating from an unfavorable, unsupportable position and saving their army is the only sane course of action for the Russians.

This will be a huge media victory for the Ukrainians, but note that they will have exactly the same supply problems if they try to cross to the east bank.

Posted by SteveS 2022-11-10 10:33|| 2022-11-10 10:33|| Front Page Top

#2 ^ Steve, I think that's right and, just as a rank amateur looking at a map, it's not clear to me where either side can advance from here. Except for Kherson the lines have been frozen in place for a while. Some professional speculation here.

Posted by Matt 2022-11-10 11:25|| 2022-11-10 11:25|| Front Page Top

#3 This will be a huge media victory for the Ukrainians, but note that they will have exactly the same supply problems if they try to cross to the east bank.

Except that nearly every non CTSO nation on the planet is supplying the Ukrainians.

Posted by badanov 2022-11-10 11:46|| 2022-11-10 11:46|| Front Page Top

#4 "most serious purely military defeat"

Did we miss the battle for Kherson?
Author seems a bit of a RUS neocon.
There has been lots of noise about russian supply chains across the river.

So can we expect a UKR garrison by this weekend?
Will we see the UKR flag fly about the city hall?
Doubtful. Maybe. We'll see...

I see Kherson as a kill zone. UKR can occupy it all they want. With the rus evacuation - I think the Russia will flatten the city via artillery when UKR moves in. And that damn is primed for a false flag or an outright attack - flood zone - that will flood the city if destroyed.

Posted by mossomo 2022-11-10 13:00|| 2022-11-10 13:00|| Front Page Top

#5 Except that nearly every non CTSO nation on the planet is supplying the Ukrainians.

To be clear, I am not talking about Ukraine as a whole, just the troops that cross the river. They will face the same supply bottleneck of getting stuff across the river that is forcing the Russians to withdraw. Ukraine may have supplies, but there is still the "last-mile" problem.

In addition, the land bridge to Crimea is one of Russia's objectives. The Rus will work very hard not to lose that. Especially if it means losing control of the canal at Nova Kakhovka that brings fresh water to Sevastapol.

Posted by SteveS 2022-11-10 13:20|| 2022-11-10 13:20|| Front Page Top

#6 What a difference an election makes! As predicted, the Biden Administration has all but officially announced that The Great Ukraine Grift has come to an end.

Now it’s Milley singing, All we are sayyyying… is Gice Peace a Chance. So it’s tag team time: not just Sullivan but today it’s Milley’s turn to call for peace talks. New York Times just half an hour ago:

Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called the coming winter months an opportune time for the two sides to hold peace talks. The United States’ most senior general said this week, as he raised the possibility of peace talks to end “a lot of human suffering.” …

General Milley described the coming cold months, when many military experts expect a lull in the fighting, as an opportunity for both sides to consider peace talks.

Milley referred to a favorite historical lesson that he often says should have been learned from World War I, when European powers’ refusal to negotiate compounded the human suffering and led to millions more dead. “Seize the moment,” General Milley said.

Posted by Billy B 2022-11-10 13:23|| 2022-11-10 13:23|| Front Page Top

#7 “Seize the moment,” dudes! The gravy train done just ground to a halt.

Posted by Billy B 2022-11-10 13:25|| 2022-11-10 13:25|| Front Page Top

#8 * Now it’s Milley singing, All we are sayyyying… is Give Peace a Chance.

Posted by Billy B 2022-11-10 13:34|| 2022-11-10 13:34|| Front Page Top

#9 Milley Vanilli and Austin must have cashed out their Raytheon and Lockheed stock holdings today

Posted by Tyranysaurus Ebbavigum3598 2022-11-10 13:37|| 2022-11-10 13:37|| Front Page Top

#10 ^ Probably not far from true. Wall Street likes a sense of direction. I believe they see the money flows not going to Ukraine real soon now.

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-11-10 13:46|| 2022-11-10 13:46|| Front Page Top

#11 What’s Pelosi buying now?

Posted by Chitle Jeng7991 2022-11-10 13:53|| 2022-11-10 13:53|| Front Page Top

#12 ^ Divorce attorney retainers.
Snark O'The Day

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-11-10 13:55|| 2022-11-10 13:55|| Front Page Top

#13 ^ Snark O’ The Day!

Posted by Billy B 2022-11-10 14:18|| 2022-11-10 14:18|| Front Page Top

#14 DOW up 1000+. Fat lady is singing "Grid lock, for the next two years...."

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-11-10 14:22|| 2022-11-10 14:22|| Front Page Top

#15 Success begets more success. Officials: US sending Ukraine $400 million in military aid

This will be a huge media victory for the Ukrainians, but note that they will have exactly the same supply problems if they try to cross to the east bank.
The Ukrainians can attack from Zaporozhye. Make it to Melitopol and, with the Kerch bridge down, cut off supplies from Russia.

And that dam is primed for a false flag or an outright attack - flood zone - that will flood the city if destroyed.
The right side (Kherson) is on the high ground. The left side (Russian defense lines) is low ground. If I were Ukrainian, I'd open the flood gates in this winter and flood/freeze every Russian out of their trenches.
Nova Kakhovka, Ukraine Flood Map

Posted by Shamp Snurt3261 2022-11-10 15:10|| 2022-11-10 15:10|| Front Page Top

#16 The Russians seem to have finally decided to publicly admit that occupying the port of Odessa is not feasible. Kherson as a jumping off point for taking Myklaiv and then on to Odessa became redundant ..."A Bridge Too Far". Odessa can be blockaded at will -and- defending Crimea's long "land bridge" corridor will be difficult enough.

Posted by magpie 2022-11-10 15:42|| 2022-11-10 15:42|| Front Page Top

#17 Now seeing unconfirmed nuus reporting of 100k RU KIA.

Nicely done Putin.

Posted by Besoeker 2022-11-10 16:07|| 2022-11-10 16:07|| Front Page Top

#18 Reports of firefights in Kherson city. Ukrainians attacking evacuation routes. Reports of explosions near Antonovsky bridge and the other side of the Dnieper. Russians stealing private boats to flee across the river. What a mess.

Will be a lot of armor and equipment left behind.

Posted by Shamp Snurt3261 2022-11-10 16:28|| 2022-11-10 16:28|| Front Page Top

#19 Night sounds at Antonivka

Posted by Shamp Snurt3261 2022-11-10 19:54|| 2022-11-10 19:54|| Front Page Top

#20 Russians stealing private boats to flee across the river. What a mess

Communist Dunkirk. Your enthusiasm and approval is NOT REQUIRED

Posted by Frank G 2022-11-10 20:01|| 2022-11-10 20:01|| Front Page Top

#21 Dunkirk 2: Guderian drives to the beach.

Posted by Shamp Snurt3261 2022-11-10 22:43|| 2022-11-10 22:43|| Front Page Top

23:09 trailing wife
22:52 trailing wife
22:43 Shamp Snurt3261
22:37 trailing wife
22:31 trailing wife
20:39 Frank G
20:30 Matt
20:05 Frank G
20:01 Frank G
19:57 Frank G
19:54 Shamp Snurt3261
19:46 NoMoreBS
19:44 badanov
19:28 Mercutio
19:22 DarthVader
18:41 crazyhorse
18:40 Omineling Forkbeard1962
18:35 Rambler in Virginia
18:34 Vortigern Sforza9765
18:26 Shamp Snurt3261
18:25 Omineling Forkbeard1962
18:23 Shamp Snurt3261
18:16 Papa Cooky
18:16 Shamp Snurt3261