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2020-05-26 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Horowitz: The CDC confirms remarkably low coronavirus death rate. Where is the media?
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Posted by Clem 2020-05-26 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11124 views ]  Top

#1 In case of unknown like CV-19 was in February, one has two choices.
You could assume the worst case scenario and act accordingly - like the People of Israel.
Or, you could assume the best case scenario - like the swine of Sweden.
Less than 300 dead in Israel, more than 4000 in Sweden. Enjoy your feeding trough.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-26 00:16||   2020-05-26 00:16|| Front Page Top

#2 Population of Israel? Population of Sweden? Asking for a friend.
Posted by Clem 2020-05-26 00:29||   2020-05-26 00:29|| Front Page Top

#3 8 M vs 10. Albert.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-26 00:32||   2020-05-26 00:32|| Front Page Top

#4 Assuming half the country eventually gets infected, at the 0.2% rate that’s 340,000 deaders. We have a ways to go.
Posted by KBK 2020-05-26 00:49||   2020-05-26 00:49|| Front Page Top

#5 ^It's 100,000 now. So, not very far.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-26 00:53||   2020-05-26 00:53|| Front Page Top

#6 p.s. I can cut coronavirus death rate by factors of magnitude - lets assume there are a 100,000,000 asymptomatic CV19 infections in the World.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-26 04:18||   2020-05-26 04:18|| Front Page Top

#7 Where is the media?

...Trying to figure out how to make Trump look bad for it.

Mike
Posted by Mike Kozlowski 2020-05-26 04:30||   2020-05-26 04:30|| Front Page Top

#8 Let's see in a year what the relative excess deaths are...

The whole point of lockdowns for this shamdemic was to stop the health services being overwhelmed (they were nowhere near and the transfer of resources killed more than COVID did) not to prevent people getting COVID.

The COVID government over-reaction mirrors the cytokine storm over-reaction of the immune system that kills.
Posted by Bright Pebbles 2020-05-26 05:09||   2020-05-26 05:09|| Front Page Top

#9 Forever quarantine rapidly replaced gerbil worming as religion for the irreligious because the sacrament was so much more readily accessible.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-26 06:32||   2020-05-26 06:32|| Front Page Top

#10 The 'media' has been screaming fire in a crowded theater for a couple months now. Time to start talking 'media control' as much as they talk 'gun control'. I'd start off with making the libel laws singular, all equal before the law, no two tier public vs private. Then like any other business subject them to liability for conveying a false or fabricated 'product'.
Posted by Procopius2k 2020-05-26 07:28||   2020-05-26 07:28|| Front Page Top

#11 Easier to just ignore the media. It should now be standard practice for lawyers to impeach the testimony of anyone who says they believe what the media spews out.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-26 07:51||   2020-05-26 07:51|| Front Page Top

#12 "And you believed this why? Please don't insult the judge and jury by saying you believed it because it was on the front page..."
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-26 07:53||   2020-05-26 07:53|| Front Page Top

#13 Sweden and Israel have many different parameters that influence their total deaths besides just public policy response to the virus. Two big ones would be climate, and age distribution which are both very different and both favor Israel.
See
Israel age structure
and
Sweden age structure
Posted by ECOnhzna 2020-05-26 09:30||   2020-05-26 09:30|| Front Page Top

#14 #13 Now give us an argument for Sweden vs it's neighbors.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-26 11:00||   2020-05-26 11:00|| Front Page Top

#15 Upwards of 70 percent of the Covid19 death toll in Sweden has been people in elderly care services (as of mid-May 2020). We summarize the Covid19 tragedy in elderly care in Sweden, particularly in the City of Stockholm. We explain the institutional structure of elderly care administration and service provision. Those who died of Covid19 in Stockholm’s nursing homes had a life-remaining median somewhere in the range of 5 to 9 months. Having contextualized the Covid19 problem in City of Stockholm, we present an interview of Barbro Karlsson, who works at the administrative heart of the Stockholm elderly care system. Her institutional knowledge and sentiment offer great insight into the concrete problems and challenges. There are really two sides to the elderly care Covid19 challenge: The vulnerability and frailty of those in nursing homes and the problem of nosocomial infection—that is, infection caused by contact with others involved in the elderly care experience. The problem calls for targeted solutions by those close to the vulnerable individuals. - cite
Posted by Procopius2k 2020-05-26 11:30||   2020-05-26 11:30|| Front Page Top

#16 ^If there any justice, there will be a Nuremberg for Swedish bureaucrats.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-26 11:38||   2020-05-26 11:38|| Front Page Top

#17 But what about Swedish MBAs?
Posted by Lex 2020-05-26 11:40||   2020-05-26 11:40|| Front Page Top

#18 Ford County, Kansas
Big food processing node, facilities and transportation

1600 cases out of 40,000 population*
2 hospitalizations
0 deaths

*three or four months of counting, whenever they started counting. In fact, Kansas has more or less quit official stat keeping; updates are sporadic and the shoulder shrugging well hidden.
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-05-26 11:43||   2020-05-26 11:43|| Front Page Top

#19 #17 They can join millions of young people whose future was stolen by unnecessary lock-down.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-26 11:52||   2020-05-26 11:52|| Front Page Top

#20 Give it a rest, g. We dispatched that bogeyman of yours weeks ago.

Again: the national and American state tallies for COVID are completely inconsistent and cannot be meaningfully compared.

This fact alone undercuts all the BS we've heard about non-existent causal relationships between this or that government measure and the actual infection and fatality rate. Our policymakers are sleepwalking in a fog of garbage data.

Re. Sweden, their extremely comprehensive and overly cautious statistical approach is guaranteed to yield significantly higher numbers than their neighbors -- or any other nation or political entity. For starters, Sweden counts nursing home deaths; most countries - e.g. Norway - and many US states until recently did not.

Given that somewhere around half the deaths worldwide have occurred in nursing homes, it should be obvious that, relative to global averages, Sweden is OVER-counting while many nations and American states - most egregiously New York State - have been UNDER-counting.

State after state, nation after nation around the world is now revising its numbers to correct their stupid and inaccurate methods. Sweden has not done so because they never gamed their numbers to begin with.

Give it a rest, g.
Posted by Lex 2020-05-26 11:59||   2020-05-26 11:59|| Front Page Top

#21 ^Blessed are the believers.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-26 12:05||   2020-05-26 12:05|| Front Page Top

#22 Admit it, g, this is a data shitshow.

Even the CDC has now admitted in effect that Dr. Ioannidis, Dr. John Lee and others were right to call BS on their funny numbers and hallucinatory models.
Posted by Lex 2020-05-26 12:13||   2020-05-26 12:13|| Front Page Top

#23 Oh well, at least it kept Biden in his basement for a few months.
Posted by Abu Uluque 2020-05-26 12:14||   2020-05-26 12:14|| Front Page Top

#24 But look at all of the comedy we missed with him there! We really need Pelosi to be locked up, basement or anywhere. Schiff, too.
Posted by Clem 2020-05-26 12:23||   2020-05-26 12:23|| Front Page Top

#25 ^-- for which every woman and female child is thankful.
Posted by CrazyFool 2020-05-26 12:23||   2020-05-26 12:23|| Front Page Top

#26 I admit. I admit everything. There is no coronovirus. It's all subliminal messages sent by Bill Gates via Windows 10. It's all a plot to destroy American economy. In fact not a single person outside USA suffered from coronovirus. It's all false news promulgated by UN.
Dr Ioannidis is the greatest scientist in the World (of warcraft).
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-26 12:24||   2020-05-26 12:24|| Front Page Top

#27 Ioannidis, March 17 COVID case fatality rate estimate: 0.3%

CDC, May 22 COVID case fatality rate estimate: 0.26% ...revised down 91% from WHO-dat's CFR estimate of 3.4%

Oops. What's -90% among friends?
Posted by Lex 2020-05-26 12:45||   2020-05-26 12:45|| Front Page Top

#28 More fun and games, this time from Washington State, which has (grudgingly, indirectly, through a bureaucrat's remark) admitted its COVID fatality counts have been inflated by at least 22%:

“So our method that we use to give up-to-date counts related to COVID death is not our usual process for how we track data for deaths in Washington,” Dr. Katie Hutchison, Health Statistics Manager for DOH. “We had to modify what we normally do in order to quickly meet the data and informational needs of the pandemic. We’re aware that there is some confusion about how this works and whether or not this modified process is accurate.”

“Our dashboard numbers do include any death to a person that has [at any time] tested positive to COVID-19."
Posted by Lex 2020-05-26 12:59||   2020-05-26 12:59|| Front Page Top

#29 Aside, "Dr. Fauci, it's time to send black helicopters".
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-26 13:02||   2020-05-26 13:02|| Front Page Top

#30  See
Israel age structure
and
Sweden age structure

ECOnhzna dear, before you do the link thingie you have to type a bit of text and highlight it for the link to hold on to. Otherwise you did it perfectly. I just went into your comment and added some text so your links could be seen. It helps to click on Preview when you think you’re done, to check if you missed anything before hitting Submit.
Posted by trailing wife 2020-05-26 13:05||   2020-05-26 13:05|| Front Page Top

#31 Don't panic, g.

"We'll always have Stockholm."
Posted by Lex 2020-05-26 13:05||   2020-05-26 13:05|| Front Page Top

#32 Quarantine religionists are going to need psychiatric long term care.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-26 15:25||   2020-05-26 15:25|| Front Page Top

#33 Admit it, this is a data shitshow.

Once the "experts" get ahold of the data, it's all platinum. Once they plug it into their models, all you rubes just stand back and keep your mouths shut.

/truth
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-26 15:40||   2020-05-26 15:40|| Front Page Top

#34 * With the proper "Experts" adjusting the data
Posted by Frank G 2020-05-26 15:42||   2020-05-26 15:42|| Front Page Top

#35 For starters, Sweden counts nursing home deaths; most countries - e.g. Norway - and many US states until recently did not.

Lex which states aren't, weren't counting nursing home death?

Even the governors of New York and Minnesota who are murdering seniors have been counting them.
Posted by Woodrow 2020-05-26 17:49||   2020-05-26 17:49|| Front Page Top

#36 Grom, why such hostility towards Sweden? Yeah they did things differently, but swine?
Posted by rjschwarz 2020-05-26 18:28||   2020-05-26 18:28|| Front Page Top

#37 "Experts" hate anyone who disagrees with them. Who does "It's just starting" work for?
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-26 19:08||   2020-05-26 19:08|| Front Page Top

#38 I notice St. Fauci and Scarf Woman™ have been sidelined.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-26 19:11||   2020-05-26 19:11|| Front Page Top

#39 Here you go, Woodrow - this analysis by the Kaiser Foundation on the complete mishmash of inconsistent state reporting on nursing home COVID data will make your head spin - excerpt:

There is wide variation in the types of data that states are reporting.

Nine states report fully comprehensive data on cases and deaths at the facility level, including Illinois and Oregon.

Other states, including Michigan, Mississippi, and Pennsylvania, report data at the county level, citing privacy concerns about reporting at the facility level.

Three states provide data on facilities only, with New Mexico providing a list of facilities with reported cases, and Arizona and Maine reporting a total number of facilities.

There is also some variation in the types of facilities that states include in their long-term care facility counts. Five states report data on nursing homes only, while the remaining states report on long-term facilities more generally.

State definitions of “long-term care facilities” can include a range of settings, including assisted living facilities, personal care homes, and intermediate care facilities.

Michigan and New Mexico are the only two states to report on congregate settings more generally, without providing a breakout for long-term care facilities.

States also vary in their inclusion of residents versus staff in the reporting cases and deaths.

Eight states report data on residents only, 17 states report data on residents and staff together, and the remaining states do not specify who is included in their data.

States also varied in how often they update the data, with the majority of states updating the data daily. Kentucky and Utah provide the data via a daily press conference, and other states report that they update the data several times a week or weekly.

Seven states, including California, Illinois, and New York, did not clearly report how often their data was updated (Table 1).
Posted by Lex 2020-05-26 20:21||   2020-05-26 20:21|| Front Page Top

#40 #36 Sweden has as of 1974 abandoned its culture and more recently turned the nation over to islamics. Making it the rape capital on Europe.

Then there is the tiny matter of capitulating to Hitler.

Defending Sweden because it accidentally may have done something right? Why?

I say that because I've dealt with these morons for a half century. Common sense is genetically lacking.
Posted by Woodrow 2020-05-26 23:04||   2020-05-26 23:04|| Front Page Top

#41 Lex you referenced article is a month old. Making the data same. Useless.

State Reporting of Cases and Deaths Due to COVID-19 in Long-Term Care Facilities
Priya Chidambaram
Published: Apr 23, 2020
Posted by Woodrow 2020-05-26 23:32||   2020-05-26 23:32|| Front Page Top

23:32 Woodrow
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