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2020-05-06 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

After Repeated Failures, It's Time To Permanently Dump Epidemic Models

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Posted by Lex 2020-05-06 09:09|| || Front Page|| [5 views ] Top

Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-06 09:31|| 2020-05-06 09:31|| Front Page Top

#2 Models do not predict the future. They tell you what *might* happen *if* your *assumptions* are correct.

Posted by Iblis 2020-05-06 10:03|| 2020-05-06 10:03|| Front Page Top

#3 Only one significant model appears to have been correct. But wasn’t. The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has actually been dramatically reduced and reduced.

Until, a few days ago, its projected death toll nearly doubled. Model upgrades, they said.

Posted by Bobby 2020-05-06 12:42|| 2020-05-06 12:42|| Front Page Top

#4 Those are my ~~principles~~ models, and if you don't like them... well, I have others. -
Groucho Marx

Posted by Procopius2k 2020-05-06 13:08|| 2020-05-06 13:08|| Front Page Top

#5 Said it before and I'll say it again.

Models = Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics.

Posted by AlanC 2020-05-06 15:16|| 2020-05-06 15:16|| Front Page Top

#6 Models are tools. A good model is the most valuable thing there is. If fact, the things you think of as Laws of Nature are just models.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-05-06 15:28|| 2020-05-06 15:28|| Front Page Top

#7 Yes, tools. And the world's politicians are in full on "all I've got is this hammer" mode.

Posted by M. Murcek 2020-05-06 16:00|| 2020-05-06 16:00|| Front Page Top

#8 Hey, what's Don King up to? He was big in the numbers racket. Maybe he can assist in some way.

Posted by DooDahMan 2020-05-06 17:42|| 2020-05-06 17:42|| Front Page Top

23:52 Bobby
23:41 Bobby
23:37 Lex
22:19 Zhang Fei
22:18 Anomalous Sources
21:55 trailing wife
21:04 Clem
20:44 Procopius2k
20:44 KBK
20:32 KBK
20:28 Lex
20:20 Clem
20:18 KBK
20:16 Lex
20:07 Phusotle Dingle5823
19:57 KBK
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19:35 Procopius2k
19:31 Whiskey Mike
18:13 KBK
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18:10 Frank G
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17:52 jpal