Article

2020-04-29 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

SWEDEN's Tegnell: curve now flat for 2+ weeks; herd immunity in sight: 27% of hospital staff now immune

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Lex 2020-04-29 00:00|| || Front Page|| [6 views ] Top

#1 Nice of USA Today to offer alternative opinions to the guy they interviewed. Very balanced.

Why not just say he's a retard?

Posted by Bobby 2020-04-29 00:20|| 2020-04-29 00:20|| Front Page Top

#2 This assumes that those who survived infection are now immune, something the World Health Organization seems to doubt...

Posted by trailing wife 2020-04-29 01:21|| 2020-04-29 01:21|| Front Page Top

#3 Try as they might to mangle his message, USA Tiday can't hide the fact that Tegnell is right: "We have to learn to live with this disease."

Longer quote that clarifies his remarks about the relative importance of herd immunity:

"We believe herd immunity will of course help us in the long run, and we are discussing that, but it's not like we are actively trying to achieve it as has been made out (by the press and some scientists). If we [had] wanted to achieve herd immunity we would have done nothing and let coronavirus run rampant through society.

"We are trying to keep the transmission rate as low as we can. We have taken reasonable measures without really hurting health care or schools. We are going for a sustainable strategy; something we can keep on doing for months.

"Coronavirus is not something that is just going to go away.

"Any country that believes it can keep it out (by closing borders, shuttering businesses, etc.) will most likely be proven wrong at some stage. We need to learn to live with this disease.

Posted by Lex 2020-04-29 01:28|| 2020-04-29 01:28|| Front Page Top

#4 An asshole bureaucrat will never admit he was wrong. If we look at Sweden, they constantly increase their closure measures because they have 10 times the per capita casualties of any other country. They just talk about being different - because Sweden: backseat driver of Western Civilization for the last 100 years.

p.s. I look at word-o-meter stats for Sweden, and I see no flattening. Guess I lack the proper Swedish perception genes.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-29 02:31|| 2020-04-29 02:31|| Front Page Top

#5 World o meter site 8 am EDT, Cases per million/Deaths per million
Sweden - 1943/233
Germany - 1910/75
France - 2542/362
USA - 3129/179
Italy - 3333/453
Iceland - 5260 (!) /29
Norway - 1413/38
Perhaps Sweden has more deaths/million because they are forecast to be short 2600 ICU beds (IHME)on May 21st? Italy was reported to be very short of medical facilities, too.

Posted by Bobby 2020-04-29 08:33|| 2020-04-29 08:33|| Front Page Top

#6 #5 You want to look (same site) on final outcomes: death vs. recovery, Bobby.
Now some countries, like Holland & UK, do not provide this statistic - I wonder, why?
Most of the others do. Compare Sweden to Italy & France - the two industrialized countries hardest hit: because no warning, just China-WHO lies. Also compare Sweden to it's neighbors - who had the same warning.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-29 09:04|| 2020-04-29 09:04|| Front Page Top

#7 A note on statistics and Swedish culture: from everything I've seen, Sweden has probably the most thorough, rigorous, careful and professional statistical agency in the world. It appears to be the case that they count everything; they are known for not cooking their books. Here's their data site for their health agency.

In addition, in their humble and scrupulous manner - their culture disdains self-aggrandizement - they have decided to go to an extreme in counting deaths as COVID-related, even though it doesn't flatter them, in fact does the opposite. If you compared apples to apples and normalized for their enormous Muslim immigrant population, the Swedish fatality:population rate is comparable to that of their Nordic neighbors -- a bit higher but then, Sweden will have many fewer deaths of despair due to economic ruin than their neighbors will.

Even with all of the above, and with moderate, prudent restrictions on mass gatherings, they still have managed to flatten their curve - as I've said, even with their extremely liberal attribution model they flattened the curve WEEKS AGO -- and avoid overwhelming their healthcare resources. They will get their society back to a semblance of normal much faster than anyone and with far less economic damage than we will.

The last point means that Sweden will SAVE lives overall -- by learning to live with this disease and by NOT killing more people with denial of urgent care, surgeries, and economically-induced despair than COVID kills.

Again, the NYC data make clear that the panicked approach causes more deaths overall - at least 5,000 needless non-COVID deaths so far this year. And the absurd overreaction in California will eventually kill 10x as many, from not just foregone surgeries but also the tally of suicides, heart attacks, addiction, domestic violence and all other deaths of economic despair resulting from the needless destruction of millions of livelihoods.

Sweden's reasonable and balanced approach SAVES LIVES.

Posted by Lex 2020-04-29 09:23|| 2020-04-29 09:23|| Front Page Top

#8 Sweden is an example and an inspiration to us all.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-29 09:41|| 2020-04-29 09:41|| Front Page Top

#9 ^We, in Israel, even have a song expressing our great admiration for Sweden.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-29 09:51|| 2020-04-29 09:51|| Front Page Top

#10 Again, we have huge inconsistencies across geographies and nations in the methodology for recording cause of death.

Relative to other countries, Sweden is over-counting COVID deaths because they include nursing home deaths which might possibly be in part attributable to COVID. This is why the Swedish COVID-attributed deaths are so overwhelmingly concentrated in the over-80 population, much more so than other countries' counted deaths.

Only recently have other countries such as Belgium even bothered to include nursing-home deaths of this elderly population in their COVID totals.

When/if they do, their total counted COVID deaths will rise sharply and converge with Sweden's counted total. Norway's total would be on par with Sweden's if Norway were to count deaths the same way that Sweden and now Belgium and also recently New York, count them.

Posted by Lex 2020-04-29 10:28|| 2020-04-29 10:28|| Front Page Top

#11 ...27% of hospital staff now immune

Great... as long as you're not one of the 73%

Posted by Mercutio 2020-04-29 11:29|| 2020-04-29 11:29|| Front Page Top

#12 First ask how do they know 27% are immune, Mercutio.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-29 11:38|| 2020-04-29 11:38|| Front Page Top

#13 Not that I am suspicious of the MSM or anything, but it sure seems that the nursing/old-folks-home factor is de-emphasized (let alone a bunch of stacked-up dead bodies in one place in New Jersey).

Posted by Clem 2020-04-29 11:57|| 2020-04-29 11:57|| Front Page Top

23:52 CrazyFool
23:48 Whiskey Mike
23:44 Whiskey Mike
23:34 Whiskey Mike
23:32 trailing wife
23:32 Hellfish
23:29 trailing wife
23:25 swksvolFF
23:22 Clem
23:18 KBK
23:14 KBK
23:11 Whiskey Mike
23:09 Whiskey Mike
23:09 swksvolFF
23:08 Whiskey Mike
22:50 crazyhorse
22:43 Lex
22:40 Lex
22:32 Clem
22:27 Clem
22:25 Clem
22:08 Chris
22:07 Whiskey Mike
22:04 Whiskey Mike