Article

2020-04-15 Europe

Sweden Tops 1,000 Deaths As Criticism Of ‘ Herd Immunity’ Strategy Grows

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Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-15 04:00|| || Front Page|| [16 views ] Top

#1 A footnote on model predictions.
In the past months various stupid/dishonest people made hay pointing out how quantitative predictions of the IMHE model are wrong.
An epidemiological (or any other, outside simple physics/chemistry - where the numerical values of the model's parameters are known) model cannot produce quantitative predictions. A good model produces qualitative predictions.
"If you don't flatten the curve, medical service will be overwhelmed." is such a qualitative predictions.
The problem, for experts, is convincing the People (their elected representatives). And People believe in numbers. So the experts - being aware of the qualitative predictions - produced the most threatening numbers the model would allow. In countries where it worked - politicians were convinced and imposed quarantine, deaths (and long term damage to economy) go down. In other countries, where they weren't - like Sweeeden, people die like flies.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-15 05:07|| 2020-04-15 05:07|| Front Page Top

#2 I wonder how herd immunity is affecting the no-go zones there.

Posted by Clem 2020-04-15 06:09|| 2020-04-15 06:09|| Front Page Top

#3 Err... the new infection rate has stabilized in Sweden. Their daily death counts (see chart, "Avlidna per dag") are now falling. It is very unlikely that Sweden's 10m population will suffer more than 3,000 deaths total from this virus - i.e., a rate of, maximum, 0.3 per million, or what we typically experience in a bad flu season in the US.

Here's the data for daily new infections in Sweden:
3/30...475
3/31...555
4/1.....601
4/2.....357
4/3.....366
4/4.....341
4/5.....391
4/6.....739
4/7.....656
4/8.....645
4/9.....542
4/10...389
4/11...419
4/12...420 (revised from yesterday)
4/13...440 (added since yesterday)
4/14...169 (may be revised slightly upward)
4/15...(not yet published)

Posted by Lex 2020-04-15 17:52|| 2020-04-15 17:52|| Front Page Top

#4 * 0.3 per 1,000
I.e. 3,000 Swedish deaths are on the same scale as about 60,000 US deaths

Posted by Lex 2020-04-15 17:54|| 2020-04-15 17:54|| Front Page Top

#5 #3 April 15 (GMT)
482 new cases and 170 new deaths in Sweden (from wordometers). IMO, it's just broke out of Stockholm - you ain't seen nothing yet.

p.s. The famous(ly misquoted) Icelandic study - less than 1% positive:

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-15 18:02|| 2020-04-15 18:02|| Front Page Top

#6 The Squareheads trying for a new record - more deaths than new infections.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-15 18:08|| 2020-04-15 18:08|| Front Page Top

#7 The IHME model says Sweden has 79 ICU beds. Seventy-nine. Maybe that influenced their choice.

Italy - 2,059
Spain - 1,364
Germany - 5,891
USA - 7,795

Somebody else can do the ICU bed/Population

Posted by Bobby 2020-04-15 18:30|| 2020-04-15 18:30|| Front Page Top

#8 According to the Swedish statistical agency's website that reports infections, fatalities etc in exhaustive detail, the daily average COVID fatalities in Sweden for the last 6 days is about 50. The the daily average the preceding 6 days was about 75.

Posted by Lex 2020-04-15 18:33|| 2020-04-15 18:33|| Front Page Top

#9 Meanwhile, in America, all is working as planned. Except, well, er...

Posted by Lex 2020-04-15 19:03|| 2020-04-15 19:03|| Front Page Top

23:56 ruprecht
23:52 JohnQC
23:36 JohnQC
22:46 Skidmark
22:09 magpie
22:05 Besoeker
20:51 Lex
20:51 JHH
20:48 Lex
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20:43 Sock Puppet of Doom
20:40 Lex
20:36 trailing wife
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19:58 Vernal Hatrick
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