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2020-03-27 Economy
Study Of 1918 Flu: Cities That Imposed Social Distancing Performed No Worse Economically Than Those That Didn't ‐ And Did Better Afterward
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Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-27 05:41|| || Front Page|| [11133 views ]  Top

#1 People who want this mess to go on indefinitely found a study that backs their position. Whuttasurprise.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-03-27 06:53||   2020-03-27 06:53|| Front Page Top

#2 Yes MM, I "cherry picked" this study just as cherry picked the study about asymptomatic carriers of HIV.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-27 07:09||   2020-03-27 07:09|| Front Page Top

#3 Did I say you were the "people" I was talking about? I don't see that in the verbiage. I'm sure the notion came from somewhere else...
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-03-27 07:24||   2020-03-27 07:24|| Front Page Top

#4 Forever crisis will work out about as well as forever wars.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-03-27 07:26||   2020-03-27 07:26|| Front Page Top

#5 I posted it.

MM, you're not stupid - why let preconceived notions (quarantine is a massive left-wing plot 😢) affect your judgment?
If you can't analyze the technical data - very few people can (including most so called experts)
look at the aspects you do understand.
Example: Israel has one of the most severe NPIs in the world - Bibi is a left-winger?

p.s. I'm also tired of the ceaseless clamor about "Covid stimulus package increases national debt"
(especially from people around here who, before that, complained about all the businesses going bankrupt, and all the people living from paycheck to paycheck starving)
(a) When you gotta spend money on essentials, you gotta spend money - it's like buying food.
(b) Who told you, you (USA) is not, eventually, going to default on its national debt - especially if, in the interim, you can get foreigners buy a lot of it?
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-27 07:37||   2020-03-27 07:37|| Front Page Top

#6 Well, it's being overdone in various locals. Here in Florida they are only asking me to stay six feet away from people I don't know. Can't say I have a problem with that. As for the spending, yes, it's necessary right now but coming on top of unnecessary spending during the last 40 years it's a problem in the long run. Maybe a social political model that recognized real problems will arise and we should be thrifty against this eventualities? Nahhh. That would be rational...
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-03-27 08:06||   2020-03-27 08:06|| Front Page Top

#7 Stuff you will be hearing Real Soon Now:

We have not spent nearly enough on this crisis.

We cannot blame the obvious cause of this crisis.

There can be no consequences for the obvious cause of this crisis.

The US cannot domestically solve it's manufacturing problems.

Thank God for the non-practitioner "experts" who didn't make it worse got us through this crisis.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-03-27 08:16||   2020-03-27 08:16|| Front Page Top

#8 /\ New study concludes Chinese 'Horseshoe bat soup' has newly discovered medicinal properties.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-03-27 08:20||   2020-03-27 08:20|| Front Page Top

#9 ^ Bumped from the lifestyle pages to the front page of NYT because "timeliness..."
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-03-27 08:24||   2020-03-27 08:24|| Front Page Top

#10 The Novel Coronavirus is the best thing happen to the World.

(a) Given how unprepared we were, imagine if it were something really serious like old style (starting 430 BC) plagues - all of Chinese origin, incidentally.
(b) An opportunity to kill Globalism and its most egregious aspect = China incorporated.
(c) Political/cultural consequences in USA.
(d) The two psycho-regimes playing with nukes: North Korea and Iran; are the hardest hit.
(e) Tremendous advances in bio-medical research & medical engineering - maybe, just maybe, some advances in actual pure research (which always pays up big) in immunology.
(f) Last, but not least, it saved Israel from pro-Arab government - or, at least, fourth elections.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-27 08:32||   2020-03-27 08:32|| Front Page Top

#11 ^ g, you & I are starting to think alike.

As horrible as it sounds, this crisis might well be the thing that will finally, once and for all, end this nation's foolish policy of making our prosperity and security dependent on a hostile nation headed by the advanced world's shittiest government.

That decoupling would bring so many blessings to us in so many areas that it might well be worth all the grief.
Posted by Lex 2020-03-27 08:38||   2020-03-27 08:38|| Front Page Top

#12 What the gerbil left will propose in response to Chinavirus crisis:

Put China in charge of future outbreaks because they have so much expertise.

Manhattan Project, er, huge spending increase to get Iran and North Korea "back on their feet."

Exponential increase in gimmiegrant importation to counteract the minute blip that the Chinavirus crisis caused.

Now that the proles are used to more intrusion in their miserable lives, make that the new normal.

Any questions? Bueller?
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-03-27 08:39||   2020-03-27 08:39|| Front Page Top

#13 Time will tell.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-03-27 08:40||   2020-03-27 08:40|| Front Page Top

#14 #10 (g) We don't hear much about global warming lately, do we?

#12 Only if they want Trump to win both the Electoral College and the popular vote in November.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-27 08:45||   2020-03-27 08:45|| Front Page Top

#15 #10 (e) MIT is developing open-source, $100 ventilators in response to COVID-19 shortages

The researchers’ initial testing of the ventilator has already been completed. The project actually used an old MIT project as its base, which allowed testing to move forward swiftly.

The ventilator has already been submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for “Emergency Use Authorization.” Researchers hope this designation will allow the device to move through the bureaucratic approval process more quickly than usual. The device is already being tested on animals.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-27 08:58||   2020-03-27 08:58|| Front Page Top

#16 #12 I'm not opposed to Manhattan Project-level focus and resources redirected away from stupid consumer tech startups and toward basic biomedical research.

Make the US the "medicine cabinet" of the world. End dependence on China for production of active pharmaceutical ingredients. Bring it home.
Posted by Lex 2020-03-27 08:59||   2020-03-27 08:59|| Front Page Top

#17 1918 economy was also hugely agricultural. A bit surprised that wasn't mentioned.
Posted by Woodrow 2020-03-27 10:15||   2020-03-27 10:15|| Front Page Top

#18 Quiet, Woodrow. You're pissing all over the pretty narrative.
Posted by M. Murcek 2020-03-27 10:40||   2020-03-27 10:40|| Front Page Top

#19 #17 Cities That Imposed
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-27 10:43||   2020-03-27 10:43|| Front Page Top

#20 I tried to find the study, but allahpundit links just keep referencing himself.
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-03-27 10:45||   2020-03-27 10:45|| Front Page Top

#21 Tallest structure in the world 1918 - Eiffel Tower.
Population balance - Rural.
Population New York - about 5million today 8million.
Crossing the Atlantic - Lusitania vs. Dreamliner, shit one can fly from LA to Taiwan before a coal ship built proper pressure.

I'm all about hunkering down for a few more weeks to see what we have and how we can handle it, but there is no comparison
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-03-27 10:53||   2020-03-27 10:53|| Front Page Top

#22 #20 Here you are my hearty from Google Scholar
Eichenbaum, Martin, Sérgio Rebelo, and Mathias Trabandt. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics." (2020).
You can't find it because it wasn't published yet.

However, it appears to be a ripoff from

Hatchett, R. J., Mecher, C. E., & Lipsitch, M. (2007). Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(18), 7582-7587. (you can get a PDF of that one from G-Scholar)
Excerpt: We obtained data on the timing of 19 classes of NPI in 17 U.S. cities during the 1918 pandemic and tested the hypothesis that early implementation of multiple interventions was associated with reduced disease transmission. Consistent with this hypothesis, cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic had peak death rates 50% lower than those that did not and had less-steep epidemic curves. Cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic also showed a trend toward lower cumulative excess mortality, but the difference was smaller (20%) and less statistically significant than that for peak death rates
Also look at fig - 1

I also recommend
Brainerd, Elizabeth, and Mark V. Siegel. “The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic.” CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3791, February 2003.
Exerpt: Controlling for numerous factors including initial income, density, human capital, climate, the sectoral composition of output, geography, and the legacy of slavery, the results indicate a large and robust positive effect of the influenza epidemic on per capita income growth across states during the 1920s.


Damn clever these totalitarians - going back in time to publish academic papers to fool real Freedom Lovers*

"To be free means to be responsible for your own actions" Robert Heinlein
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-27 11:32||   2020-03-27 11:32|| Front Page Top

#23 Thank you g(r)om.
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-03-27 11:55||   2020-03-27 11:55|| Front Page Top

#24 Yes, thank you g(r)om. Now if we could just get Dr. Fauci to read a little 'Eichenbaum, Martin, Sérgio Rebelo, and Mathias Trabandt.'

Any stroke that prevents drowning can be generally be referred to as swimming.
~ Besoeker
Posted by Besoeker 2020-03-27 12:38||   2020-03-27 12:38|| Front Page Top

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