Article

2019-10-16 The Grand Turk

End of An Era: America's Mideast Long War Phase is Over

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Posted by Lex 2019-10-16 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11131 views ] Top
File under: Sublime Porte

#1 One of the clearest thought pieces we've seen in decades.

This especially nails it:

"The world has changed greatly since 2001. China has emerged as a major power, and Russia has become more active. Iran, not Sunni jihadists, has become the main challenge in the Middle East and the structure of alliances needed to deal with this has changed radically since Desert Storm and Iraqi Freedom. In addition, the alliances have changed in terms of capability. The massive deployments in the Middle East have ended, but some troops remain there, and to a section of the American military, the jihadist war remains at the center of their thinking. To them, the alliances created over the past 18 years remain as critical as Belgium’s air force had been during the Cold War.

"There is another, increasingly powerful faction in the United States that sees the Middle East as a secondary interest. In many instances, they include Iran in this. This faction sees China or Russia (or both) as the fundamental challenger to the U.S. Its members see the Middle East as a pointless diversion and a drain of American resources.

"For them, bringing the conflict to a conclusion was critical. Those who made their careers in this war and in its alliances were appalled.

"The view of President Donald Trump has been consistent. In general, he thought that the use of military force anywhere must be the exception rather than the rule. ...

"Given the shift in American strategy, three missions emerge. The first is the containment of China. The second is the containment of Russia. The third is the containment of Iran. In the case of China, the alliance structure required by the United States is primarily the archipelago stretching from Japan to Indonesia and Singapore – and including South Korea. In dealing with Russia, there are two interests. One is the North European Plain; the other is the Black Sea. Poland is the American ally in the north, Romania in the south. But the inclusion of Turkey in this framework would strengthen the anti-Russia framework. In addition, it would provide a significant counter to Iranian expansion.

"Turkey’s importance is clear. It is courted by both Russia and Iran. ..."

Posted by Lex 2019-10-16 00:49|| 2019-10-16 00:49|| Front Page Top

#2 China has emerged as a major power

WOT was a real boon to China

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2019-10-16 01:03|| 2019-10-16 01:03|| Front Page Top

#3 Notice something - none of these super duper strategic experts mentions the word "fracker" anywhere?

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2019-10-16 01:10|| 2019-10-16 01:10|| Front Page Top

#4 There you go again, seeking out that which is not mentioned. Good on you !

Posted by Besoeker 2019-10-16 01:43|| 2019-10-16 01:43|| Front Page Top

#5 So too for the Sandbox generation, those whose careers were spent rotating into Iraq or Afghanistan or some other place, the alliances formed and the enemies fought seemed eternal. The idea that the world had moved on, and that Fulda and NATO were less important, was emotionally inconceivable. Any shift in focus and alliance structure was seen as a betrayal.

THIS. It's blatantly obvious by this point that these thinkers are in a box and cannot see outside. They are so focused on military operations that they aren't aware that it is precisely military operations that are the problem.

others deeply regretted that the weapons they had worked so hard to perfect and the strategy and tactics that had emerged over decades would never be tried.

The sunk cost fallacy rears its ugly head once again. Oh darn, there's no war! Your career was a waste! Well, we'd better have thousands of people die so that you don't feel unfulfilled.

The first is that the modest objective of disrupting terrorism has been achieved, and the second is that the ultimate goal of creating something approaching liberal democracies was never really possible.

Bam! Hit the nail squarely on the head. We can't change the middle east. Only their people can do that. And the vast majority of them don't want to change.

Posted by Herb McCoy 2019-10-16 04:28|| 2019-10-16 04:28|| Front Page Top

#6 Ref #5: ....Oh darn, there's no war! Your career was a waste! Well, we'd better have thousands of people die so that you don't feel unfulfilled.

Your rant of course, but I suspect there are a few here who could have done without that comment.

Posted by Besoeker 2019-10-16 05:49|| 2019-10-16 05:49|| Front Page Top

#7 Once an asshole, always an asshole

Posted by Frank G 2019-10-16 06:39|| 2019-10-16 06:39|| Front Page Top

#8 Now let's take a similar look at Europe. It's not the one endangered by totalitarians from Berlin or Moscow. It's one dominated by authoritarians, though in better suits, from Brussels.

Posted by Procopius2k 2019-10-16 08:11|| 2019-10-16 08:11|| Front Page Top

#9 The whole point of the Cold War was training so we didn't have to fight. Mission accomplished. "Deeply regret"? How can anyone deeply regret winning the war without firing a shot? Sun Tzu would be beaming with pride at this outstanding application of the warrior's mission.

Should I take a page from the SJW Left and start worrying about hurting people's feelings? I thought we were about good arguments and intellectual discourse, not personal attacks and emotional states. I'm getting the idea that I keep making good arguments that nobody can counter, thus the retreat into character attacks. This always happens when I'm on Reddit or other left-wing dominated forums, I sure don't expect it here of all places.

Posted by Herb McCoy 2019-10-16 08:53|| 2019-10-16 08:53|| Front Page Top

#10 #2 has emerged as a major power WOT was a real boon to China

Could I suggest crooked, self-enriching politicians and bad policies as an alternative explanation?

Posted by JohnQC 2019-10-16 09:43|| 2019-10-16 09:43|| Front Page Top

#11 Back in the late 90s Apple computers was going down fast. They brought in Gil Amelio to make the cuts required to save the company. When that was done Steve Jobs took over and made the company profitable again.

I often get the impression Trump is like Gil Amelio doing the dirty work, getting crap for it, and knowing he'll probably never get the credit he's do.

Posted by rjschwarz 2019-10-16 09:58|| 2019-10-16 09:58|| Front Page Top

#12 The first is the containment of China. The second is the containment of Russia. The third is the containment of Iran.

Ahh... a lot of containment I see. A sort of economic McCarthyism then. Well, contain to your heart's content. States will not give up trying to exceed their 'place' in the world designated for them by others.

the modest objective of disrupting terrorism has been achieved

It has ?

RANT

This article is basically saying everybody who ever served in any long war, those with the Northern Alliance, before that against Saddam, those who hunted daesh, everyone who ever commanded an offensive or watched over a conflict is a fool with too much diesel in his wagon and sand in his head. A trigger-happy, delusional thug who'd rather watch thousands die than accept that the world is easier disciplined by macro-economic punitive measures on entire populations, not by just killing the real offenders.

I echo the last line though.

You shouldn't even have tried projecting an altruistic, civilizing influence. These places are tribal hell holes. You take from them what you want, and maybe set up a dictator stooge providing contracts for infra and communications, rake in the moolah and the resources. That worked for the UK for decades, why start this democracy shtick with an already liberal democratic people ? All they do is based on consensus, religiously motivated asshole consensus, but the islamists have a true republic ethic. It's the sharia and the ulema that dictates the mental set that their republic ethic serves. Aren't they liberal in allowing men to rape young women ? To stone and behead and impale each other ? There is no robed bureaucrat telling the people what should be done. They're assholes by choice.

The error of the west has always been that they didn't understand the nature of the muslim animal. China didn't either, for that matter. But they chose their policy well. They don't have to understand it. They'll quarantine the rabid and keep them from reproducing, until there are no more.

I can't blame the Americans for not understanding the muslim threat, but I'm sure Israel would have advised US presidents many times on the right course of things. And that advice must have fallen on ears deafened by self-interest and the 'what's in it for us ' refrain.
Rant ends.

I still trust God is with Trump, and whatever he does shall prosper As you all know by now, my reasonings are part fanatical .
I just pray he never makes the mistake of evaluating Israel with the same cost-benefit treatment. The day he does, it's 'Mene mene' time.

Posted by Dron66046 2019-10-16 09:59|| 2019-10-16 09:59|| Front Page Top

#13 It has ?

Yes.

a fool with too much diesel in his wagon and sand in his head. A trigger-happy, delusional thug

This is an emotional reaction. It is an exaggeration that wasn't said anywhere in the article. Nonetheless, a new paradigm needs to take place. Bush standing down the B-52s is a good comparison. Good, serious people were shocked and absolutely convinced it was all a trick to get us to let our guard down, then BAM! It's because they were so inside a box that they couldn't see outside. All they could see was everything they had worked for all their lives descending to rack and ruin. The sunk cost fallacy.

not by just killing the real offenders

We've been killing the "real offenders" for 18 years now. Victory has not been achieved, nor is it in sight. It doesn't work. Time for a new strategy.

Posted by Herb McCoy 2019-10-16 10:48|| 2019-10-16 10:48|| Front Page Top

#14 You shouldn't even have tried projecting an altruistic, civilizing influence. These places are tribal hell holes. You take from them what you want, and maybe set up a dictator stooge ...

Agreed. The only way to deal with a monster like this is the realpolitik way: without sentiment or lofty Wilsonian illusions about remaking people or tribes or religions.

Stop talking. Avoid BS "one-world" universal-aspirations-of-mayonnaise rhetorical tropes and operate ruthlessly to crush these cockroaches wherever you can--with the lightest possible footprint. If there's to be an overseas expedition, make it punitive.

Above all, I think--I hope-- we've learned that, whatever our flaws, our number one goal is to advance our own interests and keep our people safe, our economy solvent and our communities and families strong.

Very few of the policies pursued by our virtue-signaling "global citizen" elite over the past 30 years have produced the above benefits.

Fracking is one: it's been a runaway success-- and the leading Dem contender for POTUS says she wants to "ban" it.

But our China policy has been a disaster, our policy in the Middle East a mess, our Afghan policy a bitter stalemate, and our policies toward Iran and Russia under the previous administration have been comically stupid.

Time to reboot.

Posted by Lex 2019-10-16 12:29|| 2019-10-16 12:29|| Front Page Top

#15 Above all... keep our people safe, our economy solvent and our communities and families strong.

Which is all one expects from a good king. Trump seems to me a God fearing man, unwilling to give in to the reactive demand for violence and abundant deployment of forces, from people like me. I respect that greatly.

The next term should show us the fruits of just what has been sown now. God knows Trump will need all the support we can drum up regardless of what his policy on the mid-east. The survival of the American republic itself should be a priority for a prez and it is.

The bloodthirsty screech of the desert Djinns will never cease, until Megiddo itself.

Posted by Dron66046 2019-10-16 13:10|| 2019-10-16 13:10|| Front Page Top

#16 Numbers 14 and 15 are absolutely spot on.

Posted by Besoeker 2019-10-16 13:16|| 2019-10-16 13:16|| Front Page Top

#17 Innit funny how so many people who believe you have no right to self defense also believe there is an infinite need to spend American blood and treasure on some of the most indefensible barbarians on the planet elsewhere?

Posted by M. Murcek 2019-10-16 13:43|| 2019-10-16 13:43|| Front Page Top

#18 Because it's twofer, MM.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2019-10-16 13:44|| 2019-10-16 13:44|| Front Page Top

#19 In the past the US made folks want to be civilized and like us by being Awesome. People came here and tried to be Awesome in order to fit in. Some took a generation but most made it. We were never about going out and forcing others to be like us until WW2 (which was a somewhat unique situation).

We need to get back to that. We need to stop tolerating the bogus folks and regain confidence. Trump has done a remarkable job so far at this, I can't imagine how things would be if he didn't have a nonstop drum-beat of doom and dragging feet surrounding him constantly.

Posted by rjschwarz 2019-10-16 14:04|| 2019-10-16 14:04|| Front Page Top

#20
"First time to the US, Sir ?"

"Hmm ? Yes." [nods gaily]

"Purpose of visit ?"

"Oh... uhh, I'm here to be Awesome !!"

Posted by Dron66046 2019-10-16 14:09|| 2019-10-16 14:09|| Front Page Top

#21 Indeed. Everything is awesome (when yer part of a team)

Posted by Lex 2019-10-16 14:35|| 2019-10-16 14:35|| Front Page Top

#22 Seriously, MM's point ("awesome") is well-taken.

Our effective sphere of control extends to our borders plus the two oceans and the countries on those borders.

We need to get back to focusing on events within our sphere of control, and make that sphere as, well, awesome as we can-- instead of fighting for Girls' Education in Tribal Afghanistan, or Good Government for Mosul, or Extending the Blessings of NATO to Ukraine, or creating Kurdish Republic #7 in Wherever.

It's damned hard to create an effective republic - safe solvent & strong - in a huge, socially-diverse geographic area such as ours. That's enough. Being awesome would be even better.

Time to reboot.

Posted by Lex 2019-10-16 14:44|| 2019-10-16 14:44|| Front Page Top

#23 Time to reboot, and since we are no longer beholden to other oil suppliers, our own selfish, self-interests are different than they were ten years ago. Take a breath. Time to reboot.

Posted by Bobby 2019-10-16 16:30|| 2019-10-16 16:30|| Front Page Top

#24 Lex...as they used to say, "Right On!"..just sent #14 to an upper east side $ Dem formerly with the Hillarious camp..hope it sinks in.

Posted by Unosh Hupinelet8756 2019-10-16 18:50|| 2019-10-16 18:50|| Front Page Top

#25 Thanks, U.
Ask your friend to support Rantburg while he's at it.
Best,
L

Posted by Lex 2019-10-16 19:26|| 2019-10-16 19:26|| Front Page Top

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