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2019-10-07 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Turkey to attack in northeast Syria; US forces to pull back
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Posted by Besoeker 2019-10-07 06:50|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [742 views ]  Top
 File under: Sublime Porte 

#1 First big mistake after Bolton leaving.
Posted by Dron66046 2019-10-07 07:42||   2019-10-07 07:42|| Front Page Top

#2 That bastard sold out the Kurds to the Turks and their two-bit Sultan wannabee. Huge mistake. This will create even more of a mess, and embolden Turkey further. Trump screwed this one up badly.
Posted by Ulurt Jones8687 2019-10-07 07:52||   2019-10-07 07:52|| Front Page Top

#3 One ultimately does have to fight for oneself. If the decades of struggle have taught the Kurds anything it should be that.

'Ain't no one you can depend on but yourself'.
Mad Max (was it ?)
Posted by Dron66046 2019-10-07 08:03||   2019-10-07 08:03|| Front Page Top

#4 "BEIRUT — U.S.-backed Kurdish-led forces said American troops began pulling back Monday from positions along the border in northeast Syria ahead of an expected Turkish invasion that the Syrian Kurds say will overturn five years of achievements in the battle against the Islamic State group.

The Syrian Kurdish fighters also accused Washington of failing to abide by its commitments to its key allies in the fight against ISIS. It's a major shift in U.S. policy". Interesting. This just doesn't sit well. Looks to me like we are seeing a chess match. Game pieces are hidden. Time will tell.
Posted by Dale 2019-10-07 08:15||   2019-10-07 08:15|| Front Page Top

#5 I doubt the Turkish military can sustain a substantial operation for a long period.
Posted by lord garth 2019-10-07 09:12||   2019-10-07 09:12|| Front Page Top

#6  I doubt the Turkish military can sustain a substantial operation for a long period.

Agreed. In fact, the Kurds have previous experience bleeding them heavily — at the height of the Afrin nonsense I recall a Rantburger comfortingly explaining kill boxes to me — which one imagines President Trump is aware of, and which changes the complexion of this announcement considerably.
Posted by trailing wife 2019-10-07 10:33||   2019-10-07 10:33|| Front Page Top

#7 The Turks will do a quick strike, bloody things and themselves up for PR and pull back.
Posted by DarthVader 2019-10-07 10:36||   2019-10-07 10:36|| Front Page Top

#8 Pssst, Yippy? I heard the leaders of this attack are closet Gulenists. Just saying...
Posted by Frank G 2019-10-07 10:37||   2019-10-07 10:37|| Front Page Top

#9 What Could Possibly Go Wrong!
Posted by Sonny Black 2019-10-07 10:51||   2019-10-07 10:51|| Front Page Top

#10 IMO it's time we stop policing the world an let the countries in that area take care of their own shit.This will probably let Erdrogan know they aren't as bad as they think they are too.
Posted by chris 2019-10-07 10:55||   2019-10-07 10:55|| Front Page Top

#11 Iran has been aggressive. Erdogan's in trouble politically. There's a good chance one or both is trying to claim a 'victory' over US troops for PR / negotiating purposes and provoke a counter strike whose civilian casualties would also be heavily publicized.

Air strikes are a real possibility if Erdogan goes too far. But if in fact the Kurds make him pay - specifically, if he can't use this to appear strong at home - it will backfire on him badly and he can't claim we did it to him.
Posted by Chinemp Shiper1154 2019-10-07 11:13||   2019-10-07 11:13|| Front Page Top

#12 In addition, there's the NATO angle. So long as Turkey is notionally a member, it's prudent to avoid any direct military fighting against their troops.
Posted by Chinemp Shiper1154 2019-10-07 11:16||   2019-10-07 11:16|| Front Page Top

#13 Why do we even have troops in Syria? ISIS is defeated. Assad won the civil war. What are we even doing there, other than spending billions every month that are badly needed back home?

Or if that's not enough for you: what's the prize when we win? What are we fighting for in Syria? What does victory look like? Bolton doesn't know and neither do you.
Posted by Herb McCoy 2019-10-07 11:31||   2019-10-07 11:31|| Front Page Top

#14 Tar baby. Best to stay out.
Posted by Lex 2019-10-07 12:08||   2019-10-07 12:08|| Front Page Top

#15 #13 Yes, I agree. I just see for some reason a bigger game at play here to be seen. With Trump I see more than the obvious domestic media consumption provided. The media will misdirect as I believe is part of the plan. They certainly can be played that easily. Perhaps I am reading more into this but a wait and see attitude is my attitude. :)
Posted by Dale 2019-10-07 12:59||   2019-10-07 12:59|| Front Page Top

#16 First they took the Rhineland Northern Cyprus and we didn't care. Then they took the Sudetenland Afrin and we did nothing. Next they will take Czechoslovakia Northern Syria (they already have Austria Idlib...) and they will stop there, right, Right??

If the Assads are vicious little Mussolini's they at least don't have the external ambitions of Erdogan.
Posted by magpie 2019-10-07 13:03||   2019-10-07 13:03|| Front Page Top

#17 The Turks have troops tied up in Cyprus, Qatar, Somalia and on the border west of the Euphrates.

Post their anti Gulan purges I don't think they have more than the equivalent of one Division of soldiers that are both reliable and competent enough to handle the job east of the Euphrates. They might be in even worse shape than I have guessed.
Posted by lord garth 2019-10-07 13:23||   2019-10-07 13:23|| Front Page Top

#18 Seriously? The Turk is going to conquer the world? We need to stomp them hard as if they were Nazis? I hear some howlers on Rantburg but that one takes the cake.

Just accept that you lose arguments once in a while, and that doesn't make the other people Hitler.
Posted by Herb McCoy 2019-10-07 13:38||   2019-10-07 13:38|| Front Page Top

#19 Yeah, they only take Americans as hostages, ship refugees to Europe to destabilize, threaten Israel, attack our Kurdish allies, assassinate, in Europe, beat demonstartors in America, and threaten to colonize a caliphate.

But appeasement scum like you say: "Hey, What me worry? It's only some other suckers getting killed and stomped." Literally Hitler? No mirror at home?
Posted by Frank G 2019-10-07 13:57||   2019-10-07 13:57|| Front Page Top

#20 Once again we desert the Kurds, how long before we once again try to coheres them in to becoming our proxies?
Posted by Hupiper Schwarzeneggar6867  2019-10-07 14:31||   2019-10-07 14:31|| Front Page Top

#21 Frank G.
(a) Recep been jailing professional officer corps and replacing them with loyalists.
(b) Syrian Regime (i.e. Russia) is firmly opposed to invasion of its territory & Kurds have good relations with Alawis (both are minorities hated by Sunni Arabs).
(c) Kurds have very effective allies who prefer to operate overtly.
(d) Kurds have been build up in western public's eyes as virtual saints, they ain't.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2019-10-07 14:31||   2019-10-07 14:31|| Front Page Top

#22 Sorry (c) prefer NOT to operate overtly
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2019-10-07 14:33||   2019-10-07 14:33|| Front Page Top

#23 I'm told that this could also be because of the left-leaning base that formed the YPG. They're all marxist seculars, which is why they're so open to other ideas and religions. Maybe that was why Trump decided to let them fight their own war, 'let's see who sends for help'. Another communist regime in a pressure-cooker zone is probably not what the world needs.

But in a time when optics are more important than kinetics, this couldn't have come at a worse time. I think the Republican party will be the most disappointed in this move. Bolton would never have advised this.
Posted by Dron66046 2019-10-07 14:46||   2019-10-07 14:46|| Front Page Top

#24 Seriously? The Turk is going to conquer the world?

Tell that to the Turk rubbing his hands in glee, getting hard at the thought of the coming slaughter of proud boys and girls of the peshmerga.
Posted by Dron66046 2019-10-07 14:48||   2019-10-07 14:48|| Front Page Top

#25 So would this be the maximally inconvenient time to mention the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)? I hope so. You know, the Marxists?
Posted by Herb McCoy 2019-10-07 14:51||   2019-10-07 14:51|| Front Page Top

#26 You go Erb!
Posted by Skidmark 2019-10-07 15:49||   2019-10-07 15:49|| Front Page Top

#27 Why do we even have troops in Syria?

Because when Obama failed to provide air support to the once a future ISIS, aka McCain's Heroes, Obama needed a trip wire to keep them from getting rolled up and provide a safe area of classic insurgency practices.

Then Erdy saw an opportunity to punish the Kurds and take some major crossroads - Kobani for instance - and tried picking a fight with Syria, who at this point also meant Iran and Russia. A scrap between a NATO member and a Russia/Iran combo would have been awkward to say the least considering bids for uranium were opening. Also, it kept Iran and Russia's ally Syria safe from attack.

Seriously? The Turk is going to conquer the world? We need to stomp them hard as if they were Nazis?

You don't history much do you? You only seem to address conflict in terms of warfare, very 2D there Kahn. This area has been the trade crossroads of the world since before cuneiform. Though it may not be as important as before the age of steam, there is still a large chunk of world trade and resource gathering, people, in this region.

And in terms of warfare, you are wrong again, but I have real work so maybe later.
Posted by swksvolFF 2019-10-07 16:04||   2019-10-07 16:04|| Front Page Top

#28 "Some bad choices were made after WW1"
~ Rand Paul, Fox News 7 Oct 2019

A perfect example of peace keeping donor fatigue. Anyone remember the democrat silence when Soetoro pulled out of Iraq? If someone, or a group of someone' feels the need, they can ruck up and go join the Kurds. Have at it !

We have no dog in this fight and certainly don't need another trip wire. Call it a day. Get the fok out, stay the fok out !
Posted by Besoeker 2019-10-07 16:25||   2019-10-07 16:25|| Front Page Top

#29 It is not in the interest of the American people to engage in endless war in Syria. End of story.
Posted by Herb McCoy 2019-10-07 16:45||   2019-10-07 16:45|| Front Page Top

#30 g(r)om - I disagree with letting regional allies suffer on our behalf, whether Kurds, Hmongs, Ukrainians, Georgians, et all.
Posted by Frank G 2019-10-07 19:08||   2019-10-07 19:08|| Front Page Top

#31 China, me droogs. Don't lose focus. The middle east is a tar baby. Focus on the Chinese threat.
Posted by Lex 2019-10-07 19:26||   2019-10-07 19:26|| Front Page Top

#32 So the season opener will be Turkey vs. Syria/Iran/Russia? Popcorn is great, but any opinions on deep fried peanuts? New to me.

Now, one of the Hanson brothers will end up boxing Erdy's ears, and he will come crying to NATO for help, and may encourage a human wave to enter Greece as pressure on NATO to get involved.

At which point I hope NATO tells Turkey to go stuff their noses with capers.

My prediction, and this is a long shot, is that regardless, Turkey will initiate the journey of some 20,000 refugees, or even as few at 5,000, enough to be large enough to not be bothered as they walk to a major European city, preferably with some symbolism. Say, Vienna. Only instead of Kara Mustafa Pasha and a dredge of wailing imams leading the horde, it will be Doctors without Borders, the video production arm of Red Crescent, and the fokkin Pope, and everyone who asks where the food and winter clothing is coming from gets branded a white nationalist or Nazi.

I can only hope we have been there as long as we have in order to prepare the Kurds for when this day would come.

I will also point out that the timeline to form a greater Kurdistan had been extended about four years beyond my amateur estimation.
Posted by swksvolFF 2019-10-07 19:59||   2019-10-07 19:59|| Front Page Top

#33 This whole thing about 50 US troops.
Posted by Phaick Uneretle6310 2019-10-07 23:30||   2019-10-07 23:30|| Front Page Top

23:50 Spirt Glans1838
23:41 Frank G
23:30 Phaick Uneretle6310
23:26 Phaick Uneretle6310
22:48 swksvolFF
22:22 swksvolFF
22:07 Spirt Glans1838
22:03 jpal
22:01 Spirt Glans1838
21:50 trailing wife
21:49 Spirt Glans1838
21:45 Spirt Glans1838
21:43 Spirt Glans1838
21:42 jpal
21:40 swksvolFF
21:36 Spirt Glans1838
21:14 Snusotch Shique1675
21:14 SteveS
21:10 trailing wife
21:07 Frank G
20:59 trailing wife
20:52 Phaick Uneretle6310
20:50 trailing wife
20:40 Phaick Uneretle6310

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