Article

2014-03-12 Government

DNI Clapper: Ukraine not an Intelligence Community failure.

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Posted by Besoeker 2014-03-12 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11126 views ] Top

Clapper with hair.

Posted by Besoeker 2014-03-12 01:46|| 2014-03-12 01:46|| Front Page Top

#2 Clapper: Ukraine was not an intelligence failure

And we'll whine until everybody admits it.

Posted by Redneck Jim 2014-03-12 03:53|| 2014-03-12 03:53|| Front Page Top

#3 Documenting all possible futures does not provide actionable intelligence.

There are a lot of lousy market analysts who play that game. They are never wrong.

Drop the subscription. (I wish.)

Posted by KBK 2014-03-12 09:39|| 2014-03-12 09:39|| Front Page Top

#4 #3 Documenting all possible futures does not provide actionable intelligence. KBK

That is correct. From those "futures" [or scenarios] however, predictive analysis can be derived and an assessment can potentially be made which will lead to "actionable intelligence." It can be a complex process.

Posted by Besoeker 2014-03-12 09:47|| 2014-03-12 09:47|| Front Page Top

#5 "Weighed actionable intelligence," to be more correct.

Posted by Pappy 2014-03-12 10:12|| 2014-03-12 10:12|| Front Page Top

Weather reporting indicates the Clackamus is well above flood stage. From the attached imagery, what other 'weighted' assumptions might we derive regarding local area travel ?

Posted by Besoeker 2014-03-12 10:48|| 2014-03-12 10:48|| Front Page Top

#7 DCI to Obama: The Russians are planning to annex Crimea.
Obama: What's the par on this one again?

Posted by Jack Salami 2014-03-12 10:52|| 2014-03-12 10:52|| Front Page Top

#8 Not "predicted" but a warning was issued "ahead of time"..... ?

Who knew Sarah Palin was a intel specialist?

The intelligence chief called Putin a product of the Cold War.

More like a product of a real world with 4000 years of real world history and several hundred years of Russian history. Not to be confused with urbanite academics who believe the world didn't exist before their tenure (see - Academic Creationism - and the "World is Anew" made in their own form).

Posted by Procopius2k 2014-03-12 12:08|| 2014-03-12 12:08|| Front Page Top

#9 You must have missed the "End of History" memo, P2K. None of that stuff matters anymore. At least not for the right sort of people.

I interpret DNI Clapper's statement to mean some low-level analyst called this exactly, but he was ignored because the report didn't fit The Narrative. Besides, White House and State are busy with their own issues.

You don't have to be a rocket surgeon to expect the Russians will react to a disturbance on their border, especially if it involves strangling their access to the Med.

Posted by SteveS 2014-03-12 13:30|| 2014-03-12 13:30|| Front Page Top

#10 I think the "failure" is they expected Putin to act like Russia did before and roll tanks in ah la Stalin style and like Putin did in Georgia. The PMC method didn't cross their minds and that is what caught them by surprise.

Masterful stroke by Putin, but no real surprise to those that have been watching him play rope-a-dope with our president and his lackey failures in the State Department.

Posted by DarthVader 2014-03-12 13:43|| 2014-03-12 13:43|| Front Page Top

#11 From the attached imagery, what other 'weighted' assumptions might we derive regarding local area travel ?

In that case, it's moot. As in horse-gone-close barn door.

"Weighted actionable intelligence" is along the lines of "here's the possible events ranged in likelihood of happening based on current intelligence, combined with history of the actors involved, environmental factors, etc."

Sort of the difference between being told that you could be in front of a bunch of senior NCOs who will likely be tired and cranky due to staying the night in a cheap motel and having to be at a briefing at 0500, possibly hung-over from a get-together the night before, and by reputation, full of themselves and their rank, and actually walking into a room of SNCOs who are cranky, hung-over, and full of themselves and their rank without, being having been told about it.

Posted by Pappy 2014-03-12 14:39|| 2014-03-12 14:39|| Front Page Top

#12 Nailed it you did.

Posted by Besoeker 2014-03-12 15:06|| 2014-03-12 15:06|| Front Page Top

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