Article

2013-03-30 China-Japan-Koreas

North Korea: 'outbreak of war hours away'

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Posted by Steve White 2013-03-30 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11132 views ] Top

#1 Kim Jong-un makes serious threats. He expects the US and SKor to back down or at least back pedal. If they do not, and Kim does not instigate an incident, then he looks foolish and loses face. If he makes a major incident, he could be turned to a grease spot. He has screwed up. I think. He can be very dangerous, like nitroglycerine, IMHO.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2013-03-30 00:21|| 2013-03-30 00:21|| Front Page Top

#2 This may end up being the ultimate test for Obama. I hope the administration is in very close consultation with both the Chinese and the Russians. If some over zealous Nork rocketeer pulls a lanyard, the response needs to be massive and immediate. I'm not at all certain the US is ready for a conventional, fight to the death conflict.

Posted by Besoeker 2013-03-30 00:34|| 2013-03-30 00:34|| Front Page Top

#3 "WIdout looking foolish" > His Pudginess can't.

IMO the Kim Regime = DPRK believes it has reached an existential moment/threashold - China stands to take over the DPRK be it from War-induced state collapse, Dynasty/Regime-led collapse, or via the new Sino-DPRK FTAS which most Perts anticipate will serve to only increase China's domination of the DPRK, NOT lessen it.

IMO THE KIM REGIME PER SE SEES ONLY TWO FINAL OUTCOMES -INEVITABLE CHINESE TAKEOVER; VERSUS "FORCED" REUNIFICATION WID THE US-PROTECTED SOUTH BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY [including JAPAN].

It just so happens that the DPRK's "existential" moment comes at a time in parallel when China fears for its own "post-US", "future World #1", "Manifest Destiny" vee the US as per getting final control over TAIWAN.

IN CHINA'S MIND, "NO TAIWAN" = THE US-N-ONLY-THE-US STAYS AS GLOBAL/WORLD #1 THRU 2050 IFF NOT THE ENTIRE 21ST CENTURY.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2013-03-30 00:44|| 2013-03-30 00:44|| Front Page Top

#4 The DPRK isn't threatening the ROK to destroy it - its threatening the ROK wid war to forcibly reunify wid it in order to preeempt or prevent a seemingly "inevitable" Chinese takeover.

NORTH KOREA IS PCORRECTLY-DENIABLY DEMANDING ITS RIGHT TO BE CONQUERED BY THE SOUTH.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2013-03-30 00:49|| 2013-03-30 00:49|| Front Page Top

#5 BREAKINGNEWS > US AIR FORCE SAYS IT COSTS US$2.1 MILYUHN TO SEND B-2 BOMBERS ON TRAINING MISSION IN SOUTH KOREA.

This Artic is giving me bad vibes as related to what kind of possible, "plausible/reasonable" rationale the USA = Bammer Admin may use to NOT intervene on behalf of the ROK + Nippon, etc. in East Asia, contrary to long-standing Agreements or Treatises???

[MULTIPLE USN CVNS, USMC LHDS/LHAS SEQUESTER-DOCKED ALL IN A ROW AT NORFOLK NAVAL SHIPYARD = "NUCLEAR" PEARL HARBOR here].

Posted by JosephMendiola 2013-03-30 01:57|| 2013-03-30 01:57|| Front Page Top

#6 Bammer Admin may use to NOT intervene on behalf of the ROK + Nippon, etc. in East Asia, contrary to long-standing Agreements or Treatises???

"There simply wasn't enough time to redirect US Forces to Benghazi".

Posted by Besoeker 2013-03-30 07:41|| 2013-03-30 07:41|| Front Page Top

#7 This may end up being the ultimate test for Obama.

Success is not an option.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2013-03-30 08:09|| 2013-03-30 08:09|| Front Page Top

#8 Kim may have his timing perfect on this, assuming his military can beat the SORKs, because it is not unlikely that the US forces will be ordered to avoid any combat. And not necessarily because Obama is interested in letting us be defeated, but rather because the Chinese may have sent signals that they will bail on our debt if we intervene. Of course if that works, it won't be long before Taiwan is given its ultimatum. Etc. Dominos.

Posted by Glenmore 2013-03-30 08:35|| 2013-03-30 08:35|| Front Page Top

#9 Back in 1950 it took the Norks with little anti-tank opposition, several days to make it to Seoul. Today, it's one big urban sprawl starting about half way to the DMZ. Once you hit that, its city fighting. Never been nice. Only the Americans have shown some knack in execution [see assault on Fallujah which was a set piece battle on an isolated urban area with out crap going on the flanks]. Plans seldom survive after the first five minutes of contact with an opponent. That doesn't even take into account the amount of loss of command and control when Norks find themselves knee deep in food and consumer goods they couldn't comprehend the availability thereof [see - looting].

Even if they make it into the suburbs of Seoul, their tail end will be hammer unmercifully by uncontested air after the first day. It's a feeder battle they can't win in anything other than eliminating any reserve for the counter stroke that will [as in the first period conflict, executed by the SKoreans on their own - the Americans/UN tagged along] happen.

Posted by Procopius2k 2013-03-30 10:26|| 2013-03-30 10:26|| Front Page Top

#10 Joe strikes again with the first original thought of the day.

The DPRK isn't threatening the ROK to destroy it - its threatening the ROK wid war to forcibly reunify wid it in order to preeempt or prevent a seemingly "inevitable" Chinese takeover.

And Joe is probably right on this. Remember, "forcible unification" goes both ways. If you have to be conquered by someone then lil-Kim would surely prefer it be Koreans doing it rather than the Chinese.

Posted by rammer 2013-03-30 11:04|| 2013-03-30 11:04|| Front Page Top

#11 Ive always understood that everyone knows NorthKoreacant win but their artillary can smash Seoul in hours.

Posted by Rjschwarz 2013-03-30 12:38|| 2013-03-30 12:38|| Front Page Top

#12 ..could ding up, create some urban renewal, but smash a whole major metro area? That's going to take a hellva amount of ordnance that even in theoretical calculations at the most efficient level is going to take many days, if not weeks to accomplish. Given modern laser guided ordnance and counter battery capabilities, I doubt the Norks tubes last that lone. Seoul sits in a topographical bowl requiring high trajectory shooting to hit most of it from the north. You're just not going to be able to pull a artillery piece to the front of a [man made] cave, shoot a few rounds clear of the next ridge line, to drop much into the city from the DMZ. It's more like opening up the ceiling to get a good arc to clear the obstructing terrain. Given modern penetrating ordnance [thanks to Saddam and the Taliban], those sites aren't going to get many volleys in before payback arrives.

Posted by Procopius2k 2013-03-30 12:56|| 2013-03-30 12:56|| Front Page Top

#13 The norks can shoot a bunch of stuff in a short period of time, then they will run out of bullets, diesel, and food.

At least 100,000 South Koreans would be displaced or injured by then, and the entire North Korean country could be over run by the then very pissed off South Koreans.

Reunification with the South never sounded so easy.

Posted by rammer 2013-03-30 14:21|| 2013-03-30 14:21|| Front Page Top

#14 One thing Pudge has going for him is that China will likely back him up (or at least threaten to) if things south (heh).

Posted by SteveS 2013-03-30 14:33|| 2013-03-30 14:33|| Front Page Top

#15 Reunification with the South never sounded so easy.

The price tag afterwards would make the German reunification looks like a merger of two lemonade stands.

Posted by Pappy 2013-03-30 14:35|| 2013-03-30 14:35|| Front Page Top

#16 North Korea: 'outbreak of war hours away'

End of the war Minutes after that.

Posted by Redneck Jim 2013-03-30 14:45|| 2013-03-30 14:45|| Front Page Top

#17 End of the war Minutes after that.

If you think North Korea is some sort of free agent, yeah. They're a country-sized suicide bomber working for someone else.

Have you ever wondered why they consider Austin a target (for example)?

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2013-03-30 15:21|| 2013-03-30 15:21|| Front Page Top

#18 "Have you ever wondered why they consider Austin a target?"

It starts with "A," Thing?

Posted by Barbara 2013-03-30 15:25|| 2013-03-30 15:25|| Front Page Top

#19 There are at least three chip fabs in Austin as far as I can tell. Two Freescale and one Samsung. (And the Samsung one is being upgraded at a cost of 4 billion to deal with smaller process nodes.)

There are countries that would make money off of the destruction of a bunch of US electronics factories, especially if all we do in return is murder a bunch of North Korean slaves.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2013-03-30 15:41|| 2013-03-30 15:41|| Front Page Top

#20 Also: major technology companies with facilities in the area besides Freescale and Samsung (which have the previously mentioned fabs) include AMD, IBM, Dell, and National Instruments.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2013-03-30 15:50|| 2013-03-30 15:50|| Front Page Top

#21 It's not what damage they CAN cause, it's the damage WE (USA) WILL cause, they better back down, and quickly.

Posted by Redneck Jim 2013-03-30 15:54|| 2013-03-30 15:54|| Front Page Top

#22 RJ, it's not at all clear to me we will retaliate. Between the erosion of our capability, the lack of will in our political leadership, and the fear of economic retaliation from China, we might well do nothing.

Posted by Glenmore 2013-03-30 16:21|| 2013-03-30 16:21|| Front Page Top

#23 Probably the best deterrent we could do would be to threaten an import tariff on Chinese goods.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2013-03-30 16:30|| 2013-03-30 16:30|| Front Page Top

#24 If the fit hits the shan and we did nothing, can Zero's PR machine make a "win" out of it?

And sell anyone besides the media drones?

Posted by Bobby 2013-03-30 16:44|| 2013-03-30 16:44|| Front Page Top

#25 Initiate Operation Starvation II

Posted by Alaska Paul 2013-03-30 16:55|| 2013-03-30 16:55|| Front Page Top

#26 "Have you ever wondered why they consider Austin a target?"

Considering Austin is a blue island in a sea of red, I'd say fratricide.

Probably the best deterrent we could do would be to threaten an import tariff on Chinese goods.

Actually, it'd be like the Tea Party, a grass roots boycott of anything marked Made in China. As the corporations desperately try to fake 'Made in' over the Chinese labels, those with reserves to sustain them and shift production elsewhere will survive regardless of how many politicians they buy to avert the bottom line disaster for importers in general.

Posted by Procopius2k 2013-03-30 17:22|| 2013-03-30 17:22|| Front Page Top

#27 Have you ever wondered why they consider Austin a target (for example)?

Because they don't know their Austin from their Houston?

Posted by Angie Schultz 2013-03-30 17:23|| 2013-03-30 17:23|| Front Page Top

#28 Maybe Dennis Rodman was a CIA plant and told them Austin TX was just outside of Los Angeles where the Lakers are. Start with LA...then again, could this be the setup for Marshall Law?

Posted by Mugsy Glink 2013-03-30 18:26|| 2013-03-30 18:26|| Front Page Top

#29 Put yourself in Pudgy's shoes...would you be afraid of the Spawn of Timothy Leary?

Posted by Pliny the Cheap6130 2013-03-30 18:46|| 2013-03-30 18:46|| Front Page Top

#30 Have you ever wondered why they consider Austin a target (for example)?
I expect for them to take out Paris or worse, Archer City.

Posted by Shipman 2013-03-30 18:48|| 2013-03-30 18:48|| Front Page Top

#31 Archer City? Never heard of it.

(Checks map)

Gee, that's near Possum Kingdom State Park.

At least we know Port Arthur is protected by The Spirits.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2013-03-30 21:16|| 2013-03-30 21:16|| Front Page Top

#32 This reunification gambit - what's in it for Pudge and his upper echelon?

Posted by KBK 2013-03-30 21:37|| 2013-03-30 21:37|| Front Page Top

#33 ..sort of like reelection campaign money for our pols, they get to keep it for personal use after they retire from Congress. In this case all the money in those overseas banks for a gangnam lifestyle away from the Socialist Paradise they've created for everyone else.

Posted by Procopius2k 2013-03-30 21:40|| 2013-03-30 21:40|| Front Page Top

#34

This reunification gambit - what's in it for Pudge and his upper echelon?

Life in exile in the west or west-lite (south or central America) vs. death or life in exile in a prison?

Posted by Rob Crawford 2013-03-30 22:07|| 2013-03-30 22:07|| Front Page Top

23:53 Pappy
23:38 Pliny the Cheap6130
22:45 trailing wife
22:08 Rob Crawford
22:07 Rob Crawford
21:40 Procopius2k
21:37 KBK
21:17 Thing From Snowy Mountain
21:16 Thing From Snowy Mountain
20:55 Mullah Richard
20:45 Frank G
20:35 Thing From Snowy Mountain
20:34 Frank G
20:16 Besoeker
20:15 Bill Clinton
20:08 Besoeker
20:03 Besoeker
19:54 Pappy
19:46 Besoeker
19:42 Pappy
19:39 Steve White
19:38 Airandee
19:34 Pappy
19:28 Pappy