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2012-11-16 Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Morsi to Israel: you're gonna get yours
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Posted by Steve White 2012-11-16 13:14|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [6494 views ]  Top

#1 Did Barry's Cairo speech cause this mess?
Posted by Nioj Eht 3.1 2012-11-16 13:27||   2012-11-16 13:27|| Front Page Top

#2 "if I see that the homeland is in danger"

Whose homeland, dipshit?

Israel tried to give Gaza back to Egypt, but you wouldn't take it, so it can't be yours.

The only ones putting Gaza in danger is the clowns firing rockets into Israeli population centers from Gaza. Maybe we'll get lucky and they'll fire some at you, too.

@sshole. >:-(
Posted by Barbara 2012-11-16 13:35||   2012-11-16 13:35|| Front Page Top

#3 Morsi obviously has forgotten the Six-Day War and the Yom Kippur War. Hindsight would be a benefit here. No need for further Arab embarrassment.
Posted by Gruse Snore6844 2012-11-16 14:42||   2012-11-16 14:42|| Front Page Top

#4 He's also forgotten that he has one of the top strategic targets on the planet.

It's right up there with China's Three Gorges Dam.

Right here.

Note the potential energy behind it...
Posted by Water Modem 2012-11-16 15:00||   2012-11-16 15:00|| Front Page Top

#5 132 cubic kilometres of water.
Posted by Water Modem 2012-11-16 15:04||   2012-11-16 15:04|| Front Page Top

#6 111 meter drop.

1,000,000 M(3) in 1 cubic Kilometer
so 1,000,000,000 Kilograms/cubic kilometer
132 cubic Kilometers so
132,000,000,000 kilograms of water behind the dam

Drop ranges from 111 meters down to zero meters
lower estimate would be to use a linear dispersion in the drop.
ie... 132,000,000,000 kg / 111 = share at each meter of drop or just switch to a calculus based slope....
std grav is: 9.80665 m/s2,
do the math...
it's immense.
Posted by Water Modem 2012-11-16 15:15||   2012-11-16 15:15|| Front Page Top

#7 "No need for further Arab embarrassment."

I disagree, GS. There's always need/opportunity for further Arab embarrassment - and the Arabs will take advantage of it.

I'll double my popcorn order.
Posted by Barbara 2012-11-16 15:27||   2012-11-16 15:27|| Front Page Top

#8 How much does the flood plain widen below the dam and how soon? And how much of those km>3 of water get soaked up in the desert and how soon?
Posted by Glenmore 2012-11-16 15:27||   2012-11-16 15:27|| Front Page Top

#9 Glenmore, subbed for a science class yesterday and this question came up. Desert soil absorbs water SLOWLY compared to places that are always wet which is the reason that flash flooding is a much bigger problem in arid environments.

This would be one hell of a flash flood.
Posted by AlanC 2012-11-16 15:58||   2012-11-16 15:58|| Front Page Top

#10 using 1/10 meter increments I get:
66,481,017,899,999.8 joules

print "calc energy in Aswan Dam
$g = 9.0665;
$total_mass = 132000000000.0;
$total_drop = 111.0;
$drop_increments = 1110.0;
$drop_count_max = 1110;
$drop_mass = $total_mass / $drop_increments;
$drop_height_increment = $total_drop / $drop_increments;
$height = 0.0;
$total_energy = 0.0;
for ($drop_count = 0; ($drop_count < $drop_count_max); $drop_count++) {
$height = $height + $drop_height_increment;
$drop_energy = $height * $drop_mass * $g;
$total_energy = $total_energy + $drop_energy;
print "height ",$height, " Joules of potential energy: slice ", $drop_energy, " total ", $total_energy, "
Posted by Water Modem 2012-11-16 16:04||   2012-11-16 16:04|| Front Page Top

#11 interesting - the html tool back-slash n as real carriage returns. Next time will need to post as code.
Posted by Water Modem 2012-11-16 16:09||   2012-11-16 16:09|| Front Page Top

#12 That's about the total energy released by an average hurricane in 1 second.
and its all at the front of one river.
Posted by Water Modem 2012-11-16 16:19||   2012-11-16 16:19|| Front Page Top

#13 Did he just calim Gaza?

If so, he now owns the rocket attacks, and Israel is fully justified in declaring war and stomping Egypt hard.
Posted by mojo 2012-11-16 16:37||   2012-11-16 16:37|| Front Page Top

#14 Water Modem, you are a wonder and joy. For those of us less technical, would you please give us something for comparion purposes?
Posted by trailing wife 2012-11-16 16:46||   2012-11-16 16:46|| Front Page Top

#15 Aaaaand, Water Modem provided an example while I was typing. Thank you, that's very helpful.

Morsi obviously has forgotten the Six-Day War and the Yom Kippur War. Hindsight would be a benefit here. No need for further Arab embarrassment.

Except that they firmly believe they won those wars, Gruse Snore6844.
Posted by trailing wife 2012-11-16 16:51||   2012-11-16 16:51|| Front Page Top

#16 It's about 9 FatBoy Atomic Bombs (A "Fat Man" bomb was dropped over Nagasaki, Japan, on Aug. 9, 1945) so in other words approximately a 180 kiloton atomic bomb (big for an a-bomb small for a n-bomb) But that's just the energy at break point. That mass of water is going to roll with all that force creating canyons all the way to the Med. In the Med it would likely make a tidal wave that would slosh all over.
It would take out everything near the Nile and gouge a canyon right through the delta. Think what channelizing the Mississippi did to it's delta. The Egyptian delta would likely start disappearing. There would be a huge dead zone in Med that the Nile would plow right into for centuries. (think Louisiana delta) Perhaps the Suez would become a strait instead of a canal...

Or compare to another dam..

calc energy in 3 Gorges Dam
meters height 174.999999999986 Joules of potential energy: slice 3563134499.99971 total 31,179,208,442,252.2
or Aswan is about two 3-Gorges Dams worth of potential energy.
Posted by Water Modem 2012-11-16 17:27||   2012-11-16 17:27|| Front Page Top

#17 What about Cairo?
Posted by Grunter 2012-11-16 18:16||   2012-11-16 18:16|| Front Page Top

#18 Grunter - it hugs the Nile... so What Cairo?
The one in Illinois?
Posted by Water Modem 2012-11-16 18:28||   2012-11-16 18:28|| Front Page Top

#19 The larger a temporary lake is, the more extreme the likely breakout will be. One of the largest known to have occurred in recent geological history was the collapse, around 15,000 years ago, of the ancient Lake Bonneville which was filled with meltwater from the last ice age and covered large areas of Utah, Idaho and Nevada. Erosion broke through the lake shore's lowest point, the Red Rock Pass in Idaho, releasing as much as 1,000 mile³ (4,000 km³) of water within a period estimated to have lasted only two weeks. The energies released by the outburst were capable not just of stripping surface features, but gouging out bedrock to a depth of many feet. It drastically reshaped the landscape downstream, carving out many of the features of the Snake River and its surrounding area. Glacial Lake Missoula also had lake breakouts, due to breaking of ice dams, see Missoula Floods. These lake breakouts caused extensive erosion throughout eastern Washington. It has been suggested that gigantic breakouts from underground lakes may have been responsible for carving some of the canyons of Mars.
Posted by Water Modem 2012-11-16 18:32||   2012-11-16 18:32|| Front Page Top

#20  Wikipedia on Lake Bonneville
Posted by Water Modem 2012-11-16 18:35||   2012-11-16 18:35|| Front Page Top

#21 This may not end well.

IMO it is likely will Morsi/MusBro-led Egypt will pressure fellow Arab League member Baby Assad in Syria, + the Hezzies in Lebanon, etal. to attack Israel from the North - IIRC DURING 1973'S YOM KIPPUR WAR ISRAEL'S IDF JUST BARELY WON A HARD-FOUGHT ARMOR BATTLE AGZ WAVE AFTER WAVE OF SYRIAN TANKS, PLUS SYRIAN GROUND TROOPS EQUIPPED WID SOVIET-SUPPLIED ATGMS.

I find it ironic that the greatest single threat to Baby Assad's rule stems not from the Rebels. but from post-Mubarak Egypt's desire to protect the Paleos + Hamas in Gaza.
Posted by JosephMendiola 2012-11-16 18:59||   2012-11-16 18:59|| Front Page Top

#22 As the material gave way, Marsh Creek Valley, immediately downstream, was flooded from wall to wall, and the rapid discharge eroded the pass to its present level. The flood then flowed into the Snake River Plain, generally following the path of the present-day Snake River to its outlet in the Pacific Northwest.[3]

The Bonneville Flood, as it is known, was a catastrophic event. The maximum discharge was about 15 million cubic feet per second (420,000 m³/s), or about three times the average flow of the Amazon River, the world's largest river. The speed of flow was approximately 16 mph (7 m/s), and though peak flow lasted only a few days, voluminous discharges may have continued for at least a year.
Posted by Water Modem 2012-11-16 19:08||   2012-11-16 19:08|| Front Page Top

#23 The Red River break was 105 meters high and Aswan is 115 so the flow should be similar to Lake Bonneville's just end much quicker than one year.
Aswan has 132Km(3) of water to let go where lake Bonneville had 4000km(3) so (132/4000)*1 year = 12 days. Max flow should be 2 weeks * (132/4000) or 1/2 day.

Posted by Water Modem 2012-11-16 19:16||   2012-11-16 19:16|| Front Page Top

#24 What are the Death Toll's likely to be? Warning/reaction times? Seriously, we could be talking about 30-40million people, not to mention species of animal and the archeology lost. This seems more a last-ditch option.
Posted by Charles 2012-11-16 19:47||   2012-11-16 19:47|| Front Page Top

#25 Yes... not to be rude but so?
I mean.. if you're in a glass house like that it implies you should walk carefully. Morsi obviously is too stupid to see that.
Posted by Water Modem 2012-11-16 19:50||   2012-11-16 19:50|| Front Page Top

#26 Actual damage might be worse than Bonneville. The area from Aswan to Cairo has a lot of fine sand that the flow would pick up. By the time the flow reached Cairo it would be akin to grinding compound that you say grind your engine's heads with... Nasty stuff. Anything in it's path would be ground fine. People, pyramids, weapons, cars, roads.... likely all the way to bedrock.
Posted by Water Modem 2012-11-16 19:54||   2012-11-16 19:54|| Front Page Top

#27 There is the friction to consider as the water roars down the Nile Valley. That will slow it some. Of course, the water is going to pick up everything in its path as Water Modem points out, so that by the time it gets to Cairo it'll be the equivalent of battleship sandpaper.
Posted by Steve White 2012-11-16 20:12||   2012-11-16 20:12|| Front Page Top

#28 It looks like about 600 miles as the river flows from Aswan to Cario. At 16mph that's 600/16 or 37.5 hours. Most could walk way into the desert in that time. Average human walking speed is 4mph so 37.5 hours without sleep could take one 150 miles. But my bet is that the wavefront is only 5 to 10 miles wide at Cairo with 5 being more likely. The West side is greener on Google Maps than the East so I assume the East side is higher. Walk East 5 to 10 miles and one is probably okay.
There would be plenty of time to do that. 3 hours plus crowds. Make it 6 out of 37.5

Take food, snakebite kit and clothes plus guns and leave the rest. (Sand dunes East of town)

Posted by Water Modem 2012-11-16 20:43||   2012-11-16 20:43|| Front Page Top

#29 Bwahahaha - escape? Most would stay and protest Da Joooos, then get white water swimming lessons. I just wonder if you could get the stink out of the Med
Posted by Frank G 2012-11-16 20:57||   2012-11-16 20:57|| Front Page Top

#30 I may need to take the last one back.
Widest part of the Amazon is 24.5 miles. At the flow we are talking about max run is 3 times Amazon flow so if it is shallow for awhile width could be 74 miles wide at 16 mph.

And I did leave out drop from Aswan to the sea...
That's 85 meters so total drop to the sea would be 115 + 85...
(mod of program and subtract for additional energy);
That makes total energy to the sea: 5.64630884565001e+17 joules
That's a lot more... 5.0e+17 more joules....

About 10MT more than the Tsar Bomb or 60MT.
Posted by Water Modem 2012-11-16 21:56||   2012-11-16 21:56|| Front Page Top

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