Article

2012-08-01 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by lord garth 2012-08-01 10:08|| || Front Page|| [11134 views ] Top

#1 They're doomed. All the momentum is going one way. There will be a huge massacre in Syria, rivaling the massacre in East Prussia 1945.

Posted by gromky 2012-08-01 12:01|| 2012-08-01 12:01|| Front Page Top

#2 Gromky, the Soviet massacres in East Prussia are thought to have resulted in about 300,000 civilian fatalities (including deaths inflicted by the retreating Germans) and about 1.5 million displaced persons.

Posted by lord garth 2012-08-01 12:59|| 2012-08-01 12:59|| Front Page Top

#3 Have to wonder what makes Assad so confident about what he's doing. He saw what happened to Ghaddafi. Why doesn't he just grab some gold bullion, throw it on a plane, pick up his wife in Moscow, and go live on a small island for the rest of his life?

It seems as though he's got a lot of confidence in whatever intel is flowing to him via Tehran and the Russians. Apparently, he figures he can pinpoint the opposition and ruthlessly annihilate key areas of resistance. If the Syrian opposition is going to win - they have to take out these conduits of foreign intel that are flowing to Assad.

Posted by Raider 2012-08-01 14:55|| 2012-08-01 14:55|| Front Page Top

#4 The Russians and Iranians have this back. The UN Security Council isn't going to step in, NATO isn't going to step in, and the 35% of the population that Sunni is going to overwhelming support you because they have no where to go but exile, enslavement, or the grave.

So, yeah: if I were Young Frankenstein I would feel cocky too.

Posted by Secret Master 2012-08-01 15:09|| 2012-08-01 15:09|| Front Page Top

#5 smaster

Sunni population of syria is about 70%-75%

even if you subtract the Kurds, who are almost all Sunni, its still about 55% to 60%

Posted by lord garth 2012-08-01 15:11|| 2012-08-01 15:11|| Front Page Top

#6 Raiders: Have to wonder what makes Assad so confident about what he's doing. He saw what happened to Ghaddafi. Why doesn't he just grab some gold bullion, throw it on a plane, pick up his wife in Moscow, and go live on a small island for the rest of his life?

I don't understand why the media is so confident of rebel victory. Indonesia conquered and controlled East Timor, a population of millions, with tens of thousands of troops. The Chinese conquered Tibet, populated by millions, with tens of thousands of troops. Going further back in history, the Mughals conquered large chunks of India with less than 1/20 the population of the Hindus and assorted other religions they conquered. Superior firepower, motivation, organization and training made the difference.

The key to a low-cost occupation is collective punishment targeted at anyone who supports the rebels - the Mongols were notorious for controlling territories for hundreds of years with perhaps 1% of the populations they conquered via large scale massacres of populations who stood by (providing them shelter and/or sustenance) while insurgents operated in their midst. The Nazis occupied Western Europe with minimal casualties from local resistance because of events like Lidice.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-08-01 15:51|| 2012-08-01 15:51|| Front Page Top

#7 Besides, if everyone is so confident of rebel victory, why the push for NATO intervention? Fact is, when NATO intervened, Gaddafi was on the verge of wiping out the rebels. NATO air forces rescued them in the nick of time.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-08-01 16:01|| 2012-08-01 16:01|| Front Page Top

#8 maybe the media are giving you a story that somebody wants you to hear.

Posted by Raider 2012-08-01 16:31|| 2012-08-01 16:31|| Front Page Top

#9 My read on this is that Assad can't muster enough ground forces to retake Allepo. Which is not to say I think the rebels will win. But then I think the end-game is ethnic partition, or perhaps Turkish intervention.

Posted by phil_b 2012-08-01 18:49|| 2012-08-01 18:49|| Front Page Top

23:16 crazyhorse
22:45 rammer
21:51 Redneck Jim
20:23 rjschwarz
20:12 JosephMendiola
20:09 phil_b
20:08 Glonter Noodleman8562
20:06 JosephMendiola
20:03 JosephMendiola
19:55 JosephMendiola
19:53 JosephMendiola
19:42 4119
19:41 4119
19:07 SteveS
19:00 SteveS
18:49 phil_b
18:49 Herman Grererong9282
18:46 Pappy
18:40 swksvolFF
18:40 Pappy
18:37 Pappy
18:31 Pappy
18:30 Rambler in Virginia
18:30 swksvolFF