Article

2012-01-09 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Gunfight in the Strait of Hormuz: Who Will Be Left Standing?

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Posted by tipper 2012-01-09 02:34|| || Front Page|| [11127 views ] Top

#1 "Iran will not repeat its warning... the enemy's carrier has been moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drill. I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf,"

If hostilities erupt, I doubt the captains of these carriers would prefer to be cooped up on the Strait of Hormuz. Surely the Iranians know this. Which means the message is for domestic consumption. Which means Iranian people don't.

Posted by gorb 2012-01-09 03:08|| 2012-01-09 03:08|| Front Page Top

#2 Therefore, if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz it would violate international law, because a naval blockade on the high seas is a breach of the international legal principle of the freedom of navigation. The United Nations Charter, Article 2 (4) prohibits the use of force, subject to an exception under Article 51 of the Charter for the right of a nation to engage in self-defense which can be invoked during an armed conflict.

Well. So that's it, then. Iran is prohibitied from blocking the Straits. Why didn't I think of that?

Posted by Bobby 2012-01-09 06:22|| 2012-01-09 06:22|| Front Page Top

#3 I gather that Iran is looking for a minor provocation against the USN that will result in a "little escalation", but not too much, against them. Big believers in both cheap shots and gradualism.

If their little attack gets too harsh a response, they will blame it on some general "acting on his own", which is a scam they frequently use, which allows them to take all sides in an argument and dilute blame.

The counter to this, that the USN will probably use, is to just utterly obliterate just the one unit that attacked. It is just a "little escalation", but will really rattle the nerves of the Iranians inspecting the smoking hole that was the attackers. Way more explosives than was needed for the target.

Posted by Anonymoose 2012-01-09 08:05|| 2012-01-09 08:05|| Front Page Top

#4 I don't understand.

After watching the power of the US Military on CNN for over 20 years, the Iranians still do not understand the overwhelming force that just one aircraft carrier can bring to bear?

As some football coach said after beating the snot out of a highly rated opponent, "I think they read their own press clippings too much." So it is with the Iranians, the Goebbels theory of telling a lie enough times and it becomes the truth only works until someone calls your bluff.

The Iranians obviously believe their own propoganda and that is their fatal flaw. If that is the case, a large smoking crater or three dozen in the locations of what had been their most elite forces might give pause to their blathering...but I do not for a minute doubt the self deluding lack of rational thought on the part of the Iranian ruling council.

Posted by Bill Clinton 2012-01-09 10:15|| 2012-01-09 10:15|| Front Page Top

#5 That is only if the US carrier has enough gas in the tank to do the job after whatshisname gets through eviscerating the defense budget to fund his scams and payoffs to cronies.

Posted by Bill Clinton 2012-01-09 10:17|| 2012-01-09 10:17|| Front Page Top

#6 "Norway's Statoil has together with its partners Eni Norge and Petoro made a substantial new oil discovery in the Havis prospect in the same licence as Skrugard (PL532) in the Barents Sea".

They also are introducing body scanners at their airports since air traffic has increased so much there.

I think Iran has a big mouth that writes checks they can't make good.

Posted by Dale 2012-01-09 10:34|| 2012-01-09 10:34|| Front Page Top

#7 I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf"

The US will send a differently named back through and the iranians will state thier threat was for the USS John C. Stennis.

If i were prez i would of ordered the carrier to turn around and back through. Iran has been at war with the US for over 30 years - time to knock them down -- and no fricking nation building. Hit'em and hit'em hard and leave with the threat return anytime.

Posted by Dan 2012-01-09 11:13|| 2012-01-09 11:13|| Front Page Top

#8 That is only if the US carrier has enough gas in the tank
Nuclear, it's the only way to go.

Posted by Redneck Jim 2012-01-09 13:42|| 2012-01-09 13:42|| Front Page Top

#9 Declare a blockade (or whatever) to all refined gasoline going into Iran and see how long they bluster.

Posted by rjschwarz 2012-01-09 15:00|| 2012-01-09 15:00|| Front Page Top

#10 We already went over it on the sandtable.

Sinking Iran's entire navy would not interrupt chow time.

Posted by newc 2012-01-09 15:21|| 2012-01-09 15:21|| Front Page Top

#11 A fleet carrier might be less dangerous than a bass boat with a 30-30, depending on its orders, IYKWIMAITYD.
Or who's giving it the orders, IY.......
A wimpy, damaging, impotent, retreating response would suit some folks just fine.

Posted by Richard Aubrey 2012-01-09 15:22|| 2012-01-09 15:22|| Front Page Top

#12 Don't look at what the other hand is doing. This isn't about fighting, its about the oil prices. The Iranians need oil to be above 95$ a barrel to give them a positive cash flow given their national treasury depletions and debt services. Below that and they cannot fund and fuel their major economy and military and terrorism activities. So make noise and shoot a little because the Americans will never really do more that kills a few little people and that doesn't bother them at all. The afterlife virgin account is chockful for useful idiots and debt service in this life is zero.

Posted by NoMoreBS 2012-01-09 18:18|| 2012-01-09 18:18|| Front Page Top

#13 Don't look at what the other hand is doing. This isn't about fighting, its about the oil prices. The Iranians need oil to be above 95$ a barrel to give them a positive cash flow given their national treasury depletions and debt services.

Bingo. Give the man a cigar. This will spike short-term pricing until the boobs who trade the oil market figure out that Iran is all hat and no cattle. Crying wolf works for a short time, until it doesn't work any more.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-01-09 19:20|| 2012-01-09 19:20|| Front Page Top

#14 I am doubtful that the Iranians could successfully close the straits to USN traffic. It might be feasible for them to endanger the tankers enough to make the companies adverse to send the tankers through. The amount of dhow traffic in the straits always made me nervous. It would be hard to referee all the traffic or even protect the ships at anchor outide the gulf in Oman.

Posted by Super Hose 2012-01-09 19:43|| 2012-01-09 19:43|| Front Page Top

#15 Iran's "offensive" weapon agz the US is its crisis-led manipulation of world oil prices + markets to the detriment of the econ troubled US-World.

Until it becomes a de facto Nuclear Power wid a reliable minimum or "sufficient" LR Nuke Arsenal, IT WILL TOLERATE + ALLOW A US-LED GROUND INVASION OF IRAN TO OCCUR WHEREUPON ASYMMETRIC, PREDATORY, CASUALTY-CENTRIC VIETNAM-STYLE "PEOPLE'S WAR" WILL BE WAGED, ALBEIT WID "DIRTY" NUKE-WMDS BOMBS, + REGIONAL, GLOBAL TERROR, + CONDUCT OR WAGING OF INTERNATIONAL BRINKMANSHIP = CONFRONTATIONISM AMONGST WORLD'S MAJOR NUKE POWERS.

Despite any opposition to Iran's Regime, regional Muslim states have indic that they will NOT allow their territories to be used for US-led, etc. milstrikes agz their rival Iran - UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES, IT MEANS THE US + UK + ISRAEL, ETC. ALIGNED ARE ON THEIR OWN IN UNILATER STRIKING OR INVADING IRAN PROPER.

E.g. North Vietnam, the Mullahs in Tehran are willing to fight a protractive "long war" on Iranian soil irregardless of casualties suffered.

UNLESS IT IS INVADED, IRAN'S NUCPROGS WILL GO ON UNTO WEAPONIZATION.

Pesky Persians are, after all, Pesky + Persian.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2012-01-09 19:57|| 2012-01-09 19:57|| Front Page Top

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