Article

2010-12-13 China-Japan-Koreas

Former DNI Dennis Blair Predicts Military Conflict in Korea

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Sherry 2010-12-13 11:49|| || Front Page|| [11131 views ] Top

#1 If the Chinese cut off food, it would then mean the Norks had to choose between all-in or all-out. If the go for it, they would have to get food from somewhere, and they couldn't scorch all of South Korea or there would be nothing left to eat.

Posted by gorb 2010-12-13 13:07|| 2010-12-13 13:07|| Front Page Top

#2 I think Kim knows that a war would mean the end of North Korea as a political entity, but I'm willing to bet that if it looks like the regime is about to fall he'll decide to attack Seoul in the hope that the PRC will intervene on his behalf.

It really depends on what the PRC does, IMO.

Posted by HEU 2010-12-13 15:04|| 2010-12-13 15:04|| Front Page Top

#3 If the North Koreans are insane enough to shell Seoul, it is the end of their regime period. The only rationale for the South Koreans to restrain themselves will be removed and the South Korean military will break the North Korean attacks and move north to Pyongyang. The Chinese have too much to lose economically to involve themselves in a border clash with the South Koreans, so they will move their troops probably 25 miles south of the Yalu River and dig in. That give the Chinese control of several very important mines, and a nice easy to monitor border with the newly-expanded South Korea. It is also the effective limit to the Chinese Army's transport system - 25 miles before all hell breaks loose with resupply.

Posted by Shieldwolf 2010-12-13 15:34|| 2010-12-13 15:34|| Front Page Top

#4 If the ChiComs were to draw a line from Yongbyon and Hamhung in North Korea, they would effectively control all of the major mining areas of North Korea and still be about 50 miles north of Pyongyong. Since the Korean peninsula pinches in at that location, the ChiComs could easily create a rump People's Republic of Korea, and hold that border.

Posted by Shieldwolf 2010-12-13 15:42|| 2010-12-13 15:42|| Front Page Top

#5 A couple of major rail lines meet just east of Yongbyon which would let the ChiComs move more troops and supplies to the area than would be normal if they relied on their truck transport. That is why I think they would draw the line at that point, they can keep their troops and the North Koreans supplied much more efficiently along the rail lines, than relying on the poor quality North Korean road system.

Posted by Shieldwolf 2010-12-13 15:51|| 2010-12-13 15:51|| Front Page Top

#6 "Kim knows that a War would mean the end of North Korea as a Political Entity" > War or Sino-DPRK FTA = Free Trade, which IMO is the real reason Pyongyang sent an envoy to RUSSIA.

DPRK DOING AN [anti-China]"VIETNAM"???

* ION YONHAP > US EXPERT CALLS FOR INCREASING AMERICAN TROOP PRESENCE IN SOUTH KOREA TO DETER NORTH KOREAN PROVOCATIONS.

* PEOPLES DAILY FORUM > JAPAN'S DEPLOYMENT OF PATRIOT PAC-3's WILL COMPLICATE THE KOREAN SITUATION.

* TOPIX > MULLEN: RISK OF WAR RISING ON KOREAN PENINSULA.

* TOPIX > {SK INTEL Official] REPORT: NORTH KOREA MAY BE OPERATING 3-4 MORE URANIUM SITES.

* TOPIX > JAPAN'S ERA OF POSTWAR PACIFISM MAY BE COMING TO AN END.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2010-12-13 23:31|| NA 2010-12-13 23:31|| Front Page Top

#7 Don't think the Chinese could easily set up a defensive position. Remember how Rwandan rebels conquered Zaire a few years back? South Korea could easily do the same to China. There is a national democratic (Rich) government ready to go in the Republic of China (Taiwan) and everyone hates the corrupt communists. It is just a matter of putting all the pieces together.

Posted by rammer 2010-12-13 23:37|| 2010-12-13 23:37|| Front Page Top

23:37 rammer
23:35 CrazyFool
23:31 JosephMendiola
23:18 abu do you love
23:06 mom
23:03 Pappy
22:48 tu3031
22:35 JAB
22:34 abu do you love
22:31 OldSpook
22:30 abu do you love
22:24 Frank G
22:22 Secret Master
21:37 AzCat
21:15 Frank G
21:15 746
20:40 Water Modem
20:16 Eric Jablow
20:05 Glenmore
19:59 Redneck Jim
19:41 tu3031
19:40 tu3031
19:36 tu3031
19:17 tipper