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2010-04-15 China-Japan-Koreas

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Posted by tipper 2010-04-15 10:53|| || Front Page|| [11131 views ] Top

#1 In 1978, the state produced virtually all the nations gross domestic product. Today, that figure has dropped to a third.

Does this mean The U.S. under Obama is more socialist than Communist China?

Al

Posted by Frozen Al 2010-04-15 11:37|| 2010-04-15 11:37|| Front Page Top

#2 Yes.

Posted by ed 2010-04-15 12:22|| 2010-04-15 12:22|| Front Page Top

#3 What a bunch of BS. They confuse discontent with thieving local officials with discontent with the central government in Beijing. Actually, the central government is typically viewed as a savior, as every Chinese has the right to go to Beijing and petition the government for grievances.

The CCP is responsible for the greatest period of prosperity in the 5,000 year history of China. They went from dirt-poor (literally - no Xbox and cable TV for the peasants in 1992) to modern nation in less than 20 years. Well, parts of China are fully modern, anyway. Think about what would have happened to the USA in 1845 if aliens with cell phones and computers landed and started investing in factories everywhere. By 1863 there'd be a "modern" alien-influenced state built right next to the saloons and cathouses.

Chinese are proud of China, and the CCP is the reason for it. Chinese greatly fear chaos and the CCP is the lesser of two evils. There is an unspoken deal: "keep the prosperity coming and we won't complain too much."

Posted by gromky 2010-04-15 12:24|| 2010-04-15 12:24|| Front Page Top

#4 What a bunch of BS. They confuse discontent with thieving local officials with discontent with the central government in Beijing.

No doubt that's true, gromky, and is an important insight in terms of evolution vs. revolution on the political side of things. But on the economic side, the question is whether those straight-line extrapolations upon which all of China bases their hopes are realistic. If not, as I contend based on my very limited understanding of economics (and a philosophical fondness for asymptotic curves), life will become a bit more interesting for all of China a good deal sooner than planned, even without a political revolution.

Posted by trailing wife 2010-04-15 14:43|| 2010-04-15 14:43|| Front Page Top

#5 Westerners are seeing the country through their own distorted lens. To Chinese, the CCP is kind of troublesome but they're delivering the goods in spades. You have to realize that before 1992 China was poor. I mean, basket case poor. The CCP has made China into a powerful nation and the people don't mind the repression all that much, as long as it keeps the feared chaos at bay. China's entire history 100 years before Mao was civil war and being beaten up by imperialists. Nobody seems to understand this, even people who should know better.

I'm no panda hugger but the commies have done a bang-up job ever since Deng Xiaoping hijacked the People's Revolution onto the capitalist road.

Posted by gromky 2010-04-15 15:13|| 2010-04-15 15:13|| Front Page Top

#6 China's entire history 100 years before Mao was civil war and being beaten up by imperialists.

Or the Manchus who beat up the Ming, or the Ming who beat up the Yuan/Mongols, who beat up the Sung, who...well you get the idea..all the way back to the Han and Shang. It's the other old Chinese cycle: chaos and regionalism, centralization, entropy-decay-corruption of the center, disintegration-decentralization. It's only been going on for a couple thousand years. What modern tech does is speed up the time line.

The problems Beijing faces are the growing economic rift between the Han and non-Han in the outer regions attenuated by the Han's historical racism and ability to handle a real serious recession coupled with classical wide spread corruption that is the bellwether of other failed dynasties. They're riding the proverbial tiger, though they've shown remarkable pragmatism in adopting the changes they have. What has yet to be seen is at what point their [the Party] need to control overpowers the natural tendency of effectiveness to be correlated to the lowest level of responsibility which works against centralization. We're seeing that failure in the Beltway today.

Posted by Procopius2k 2010-04-15 17:08|| 2010-04-15 17:08|| Front Page Top

#7 China's entire history 100 years before Mao was civil war and being beaten up by imperialists.

That's the way the Chinese see their history. A perception strongly reinforced by a very nationalistic narrative indoctrinated into all Chinese by the educational system and government propaganda.

China is a totalitarian regime and such regimes don't survive social and economic disruption well. The CCP is probably safe as long as the good times roll, but look out if there is a real estate crash, a bigger and 'better' GFC MKII, raging inflation, etc.

Posted by phil_b 2010-04-15 19:45|| 2010-04-15 19:45|| Front Page Top

#8 Globalization, which looked like an inevitable trend in early 2008, is now obviously going into reverse as economies are delinking from each other.

This is incredibly wrong and just plain foolish. Economies are not delinking, nor will they. Hell, the writer goes on to use the Great Depression as an example of the difficulties exporting nations face, but doesn't recognize why they face it. Because import and export economies are linked, silly. They were a hundred years ago and will be a hundred years from now.

What's going to prevent China from becoming the dominant economic superpower is poor governance, an aging population and competition from cheaper labor markets.

Posted by Mike N. 2010-04-15 20:29|| 2010-04-15 20:29|| Front Page Top

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