Article

2010-03-30 China-Japan-Koreas

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Posted by Steve White 2010-03-30 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11131 views ] Top

#1 explosion inward? mine or torpedo. Explosion outward? internal...could be sabotage.

Posted by anymouse 2010-03-30 00:08|| 2010-03-30 00:08|| Front Page Top

#2 It seems to me that the most likely place for damage would be somewhere along the bow of the ship. Could a mine be sucked toward the hull of a passing ship and impact it in the middle of the hull?

Could it have been a magnetic mine placed on the outside of the ship while at port or at sea? I don't think the Norks have the ability to pull this kind of operation off anywhere but in port.

Isn't the hull on these ships only about a half inch thick? Maybe the frame is strong, but given modern explosives, half an inch is like paper mache. I hope they don't put the magazines or explosives storage areas near the hull without some kind of protection in between.

Posted by gorb 2010-03-30 00:37|| 2010-03-30 00:37|| Front Page Top

#3 Isn't all this speculation fun? So, what are the conspiracy theories about this one?

Posted by gromky 2010-03-30 02:48|| 2010-03-30 02:48|| Front Page Top

#4 Ship broken in half near the middle screams "TORPEDO".

Posted by Redneck Jim 2010-03-30 04:52|| 2010-03-30 04:52|| Front Page Top

#5 Are there known deposits of methane ice down there? Perhaps they were unlucky enough to pass by as a big bubble was coming up (fast) from directly below.

Posted by Grenter, Protector of the Geats 2010-03-30 09:24|| 2010-03-30 09:24|| Front Page Top

#6 Its fairly simple if you stick to the facts:

Shallow water. Fast currents. Ship broken apart in one explosion amidships, aft 1/3 sinks in minutes. Crew reports ship was "lifted up"

The first precludes torpedoes because it is too shallow for submersibles and CAPTOR mines. The second precludes pre-laid mines because the current makes them unmaintainable. The third precludes "accident" because internal explosion, there would be multiple explosions were that the case and the ammunition is stored fore not aft.

That leaves a mine detonation outside a minefield. And that means a mine adrift.

Alternately, there are old World War 2 large naval mines that are possibly still in the yellow sea. These are left over from the large amount of mines the US put in to strangle Japanese merchant shipping. These are old mines and quite large compared to modern ones, which would explain the massive explosion and overkill.

North Korea's silence reinforces either of these. If this were deliberate they would be screaming about imperialist aggressions and justified self defense. However a mine lost from one of their own minefields would have to be explained to the chain of command. If you were the North Korean officer in charge of the mine tenders and you gun decked the maintenance report, then its your butt that has to explain to Kim Jong Il how you lost one of the people's mines, and explain away something that could have started a war and denied Dear Leader of his western goodies. If it was an old mine, then they are probably in a hurry to inventory all their mines to make sure before they speak out.

Any way you look at it, it is likely a loose mine of indeterminate origins. End of story.

H/T to the Rantburg regulars for assembling all that info in posts over the weekend.

Posted by Beldar Threreling9726 2010-03-30 10:56|| 2010-03-30 10:56|| Front Page Top

#7 Nothing is indeterminate, as far as any fragments or explosive residue. Even a small trace will point the finger.

My guess is a tethered mine, especially in shallows, where ships are likely to stay in well defined lanes to avoid hitting obstacles. Area denial weapons, because the Norks have been trying to muscle the South out of the disputed waters.

Posted by Anonymoose 2010-03-30 11:08|| 2010-03-30 11:08|| Front Page Top

#8 My guess is a tethered mine

So would a mine have to be tethered in order to strike a moving ship halfway along the hull, or would it naturally be pulled into the side of a ship by the eddy currents generated by its passing?

Could the mine be on a timer? Were the WWII mines on a timer?

Was the Korean ship moving?

Posted by gorb 2010-03-30 11:41|| 2010-03-30 11:41|| Front Page Top

#9 More theories...

What Happened to the Cheonan?

Posted by tu3031 2010-03-30 12:22|| 2010-03-30 12:22|| Front Page Top

#10 I wonder if we're awaiting lab results from explosive residue?

This may be a chemical question rather than military, but is it possible to identify the source and age of an explosion? In other words, could we determine if the blast was from a WWII mine (either ours or the Japanese), a current/modern mine - either ours (ROK/US?) or the NORK, or if it was not a mine but some other external source?

Though the story indicates both possibilities, wouldn't it be already known whether the blast was internal or external?

Or, could the silence mean we (ROK/US/others - Japan?) are simply tying down the loose ends and following leads without needing to alert or divert attention?

Seems the silence stops the hesitation which precludes the accident theories.

Finally, at 1,200 tons, was this truly 1% +/- of the ROK Navy tonnage - shown in some references at 150k tons? It's not the Ark Royal or Hood, but still, a large single loss.

Posted by Halliburton - Mysterious Conspiracy Division 2010-03-30 14:06|| 2010-03-30 14:06|| Front Page Top

#11 Choose a cause:

1. Norks
2. Accident
3. Bush
4. Global Warming
5. Tea Partiers
6. Sarah Palin

Posted by GolfBravoUSMC 2010-03-30 14:42|| 2010-03-30 14:42|| Front Page Top

#12 1,3,4,5,6

No way it could be option 2.

Posted by Mike N. 2010-03-30 14:55|| 2010-03-30 14:55|| Front Page Top

#13 BAENGNYEONG ISLAND, South Korea (AFP) A South Korean diver died Tuesday while trying to rescue dozens of sailors believed trapped inside a warship that sank near the North Korean border after a mysterious explosion.

Defence Minister Kim Tae-Young has said a drifting North Korean mine dating back to the 1950-53 war might have caused the blast which left 46 missing, or the North might have intentionally sent a mine floating towards the Cheonan.

Navy chief Kim Sung-Chan, in a report to the president, said the ship's munitions storage room did not appear to have exploded and "the ship was broken in two because of powerful outside pressure or an (exterior) explosion".

Dozens of divers have braved the Yellow Sea's strong currents and frigid and murky waters, trying in vain to get inside the hull. One of them, father of two Han Joo-ho, fell unconscious Tuesday and later died, the military said. Navy Lieutenant Colonel Song Moo-Jin said the divers were working "in a very vicious environment" and could stay underwater for only about 20 minutes at a depth of 40 metres (130 feet).

The Korea Herald said a naval attack which could spark a war would make little political sense for the North's regime, but noted the country's military had occasionally taken independent action. "A regional commander could have sent a mini-sub or floated mines aiming at South Korean craft, with or without the backing of the high command in Pyongyang," it said in an editorial.

Posted by tu3031 2010-03-30 16:12|| 2010-03-30 16:12|| Front Page Top

#14 I agree there is no way it was number 2, but 1 is out of they question also as I have no doubt that the North Korean and just stunned.

As for the other options I am conflicted.

Posted by Kelly 2010-03-30 18:56|| 2010-03-30 18:56|| Front Page Top

#15 I saw the movie preview - "The Kracken" is on the loose !!!

Posted by Chief 2010-03-30 21:45|| 2010-03-30 21:45|| Front Page Top

#16 Likely a mine adrift, and possibly an old one. Occam's Razor.

Posted by OldSpook 2010-03-30 22:05|| 2010-03-30 22:05|| Front Page Top

#17 BTW, modern naval mines are not the old studded softball looking things from WW1. You dont run into them, you drive near them and they detonate sending a huge column of water into the hull, leveraging hydrostatic pressure to literally snap the keel and shatter the hull.

The picture you paint of "driving into the mine with the bow" is so outdated as to be humorous.

Posted by OldSpook 2010-03-30 22:09|| 2010-03-30 22:09|| Front Page Top

#18 You mean...like this?

Posted by tu3031 2010-03-30 22:24|| 2010-03-30 22:24|| Front Page Top

#19 Video of a 2005 (?) Detonation of a WW2 Sea Mine in the baltic.

That big, from over a mile away. 60 year old mine.

Posted by OldSpook 2010-03-30 22:40|| 2010-03-30 22:40|| Front Page Top

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