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2008-07-22 Home Front Economy

T. Boone Pickens Calls for Assault on Foreign Oil

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Posted by OldSpook 2008-07-22 12:20|| || Front Page|| [6 views ] Top

#1 Its a pretty neat solution - attack the supply side by jumping up US domestic petroleum production, and attack the demand side by substituting alterntive energy sources, and moving transportation from petrol to natural gas.

Double US domestic oil production and cut demand in multiple places? Sounds like a big drop in the need to import, and a lot of it within the next few years, instead of decades out.

Combine all that with nukes and clean coal for baseload power, more electrical cars, and development of better alternative energy things like fuel cells, bio-diesel sources, diesel-electric engines, etc, - we coudl probably cut demand and increase supply to the point where we are energy self sufficient within a decade, and pretty much "off oil" within a genertion.

Major obstacles are the greens and their lawyers who will delay things with lawsuits.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-07-22 12:43|| 2008-07-22 12:43|| Front Page Top

#2 There is no way $300 bbl of oil is going to happen without the world economy taking a nose dive to the point of "drop-dead demand". I can see it approaching $200 bbl but it also causing a significant depression world-wide. If you look at all the independent energy studies, the one with the greatest potential is a "hydrogen economy" but you need to have an interim plan of more domestic drilling (which requires more domestic refining capacity that is never discussed in the same mouthful), more conservation, energy efficient automobiles, trucks and planes as well as focus on nuclear for baseline power production. Natural gas is a poor fuel economically since even for power generation it is in the 50% range of efficiency. Coal gets you more and of course nuclear gets you almost pure efficiency. The odd thing about solar and PV is that the more you reduce greenhouse gases (CO2) the more efficient it becomes and the warmer the earth will become (not the inverse). His plan is doable but only in a much longer time period not 10 years.

Posted by Jack is Back!">Jack is Back! 2008-07-22 12:50|| 2008-07-22 12:50|| Front Page Top

#3 Oil prices fell $5.07 to $125.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as concerns eased about possible supply disruptions from Tropical Storm Dolly.

Posted by tu3031 2008-07-22 12:57|| 2008-07-22 12:57|| Front Page Top

#4 Sounds like a solid plan to me. Like OS mentioned, he's advocating attacking the problem on the demand and supply side. We can't replace imported oil with domestic oil in any kind of useful timeframe, but by attacking the demand side we can make huge gains on our import balance sheet. I'm a big fan of both electric and hydrogen power. But we do need something interim, natural gas certainly has potential. My biggest concern about electric cars is straight forward, I fear the electric grid can not handle a sudden increase. I believe electric cars will have to be introduced somewhat slowly to make sure the grid can handle the extra load. Now that the Iraq war is winding down, it's a good time to start spending some money on these types of projects. Improve our infrastructure, start developing an hyrdogen infrastructure and build lots of nuke plants.
check this out

Posted by AllahHateMe 2008-07-22 13:09|| 2008-07-22 13:09|| Front Page Top

#5 So why is pickens feverishly buying up water rights all over the western states? So he can sell us the water to run hydro dams?
This guy is no philanthropist, he's a robber baron. If he's pushing alternative energy you can be sure he owns controlling stake in it. He should do well with the Goracle.

Posted by bigjim-ky 2008-07-22 13:13|| 2008-07-22 13:13|| Front Page Top

#6 Tbe "Pickens Plan" is the best plan I've seen lately... in fact, it's the ONLY plan I've seen lately. He's wrong about "having only one enemy" however. The congressional democrats will having nothing to do with him, I assure you.

Posted by Besoeker 2008-07-22 13:13|| 2008-07-22 13:13|| Front Page Top

#7 Add to the Pickens plan nuclear: big plants and the new little plants. Push to get electricity generation from nuclear from 19% to ~40% of our needs. That's dependable (more so than wind) and do-able today.

Flex-fuel, plug-in hybrid cars.

Make ethanol from switchgrass, not corn.

Wind farms and solar farms where they make sense.

Drill, drill, drill.

Posted by Steve White 2008-07-22 13:34|| 2008-07-22 13:34|| Front Page Top

#8 I'd rather see nukes become 100% of base load electrical power in the US wihtin 30 years, with natioon-wide solar and wind providing the peak power.

As for natural gas - he is not avocating it for generation (he want to get away from using it for power generation, RTFA!), he is advocating it for vehicles. And that's already being done, and can be done with little engineering and relatively low costs for vehicle conversion, the major hurdle being distribution at filling stations. I imagine that a home-fill could be engineered in areas with natural gas pipes already laid.

Jack, need I remind you that just 10 years ago, back in July 1998, west texas sweet spot market price was just $14 a barrel; we are at over 10 times that amount today without a world-wide depression. RTFA - Pickens aas talking talking about $300/bbl oil in the context of 10 years down the road, if we continue to drift as we do now, and our trend lines show us importing 80% of our oil, in addition to Chinese and other demands. So he's not blowing smoke.

Bigjim, you really need to adjust your paranoia tin-foil beanie. If the guy's plan will get us off foreign oil, and do so at a decent cost, he will have solidified our economy and security massively, and thats as patriotic as anyone can be. If he makes a buck at it, so much the better - that's the American Way.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-07-22 13:51|| 2008-07-22 13:51|| Front Page Top

#9 This guy is no philanthropist, he's a robber baron.

I wouldn't go so far as to say he is a robber baron.

He definitely has business interests in mind though. Just him saying $300 oil helps buoy the oil market helping both his oil interests and his new power generation business. It's no mistake he launched the Pickens Plan, is running a major national ad campaign and is testifying in front of the Senate all in the same week. He stands to profit mightily from the high price of oil.

I will say this though, I think his patriotic intentions are real. I have had the opportunity to hear him speak on a number of occasions. There's nothing more American than doing something to help America immensely and make a buck doing it.

Posted by Intrinsicpilot 2008-07-22 13:52|| 2008-07-22 13:52|| Front Page Top

#10 Paranoia tin-foil beanie? The disease hasn't progressed that far, yet.

Posted by bigjim-ky 2008-07-22 14:12|| 2008-07-22 14:12|| Front Page Top

#11 T.Boone is in his 80's.
I see it as his way of returning a favor to the country that let him emerge on the stage. His country.

I agree with his solution.
It buys time.
Nukes take forever to be approved.
Same with other stuff.
Wind approval is pretty quick
His N<->S backbone powerline that connects the windmills and the E<->W grid is the glue that lets one make a baseline power supply out of the fickle wind.

Conversion is easy. I remember in my youth converted hemmis running deep wells in Central NE. Day and night your heard them run on and on... Conversion was cheap too.

It's known tech and do'able with the cheapest conversion of any mobile power source.

Posted by 3dc 2008-07-22 14:30|| 2008-07-22 14:30|| Front Page Top

#12 Pickens' company Mesa Power has invested $2 billion in a Texas panhandle wind farm.

The dirty secret of "wind power" is that the wind isn't strong enough a lot of the time and they have to keep turning the blades with a gas powered generator so they don't seize up. Wind power is about as efficient as congress when it comes to making money and power.

Go nuclear and clean coal. Drill and refine. That is the only way out of this mess until fusion comes online 20-50 years from now.

Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader 2008-07-22 14:36|| 2008-07-22 14:36|| Front Page Top

#13 This guy is no philanthropist, he's a robber baron

Just like the bastards who shoved the Magna Carta down king John's throat?

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2008-07-22 14:38|| 2008-07-22 14:38|| Front Page Top

#14 I know you have heard of Enron.
How about Google ,Al Gore, Maurice Strong and Bill Clinton?
Do you know what common thread connects them all?
This is the exact same plan, but put out by a republican. Don't call me a nut until you think about this for a few minutes. It's the exact same goddamned plan. So why is it gospel when this guys lays it out? Tinfoil beanie indeed.

Posted by bigjim-ky 2008-07-22 14:51|| 2008-07-22 14:51|| Front Page Top

#15 He has been running radio ads out this way for a while now - TX OK panhandles west KS east CO if anything, especially during the summer, has clear skies and wind.

Sounds like a plan, what are we waiting for? Oh yeah congress and the CO+KS govorners.

Posted by swksvolFF 2008-07-22 14:53|| 2008-07-22 14:53|| Front Page Top

#16 Fucking Congress is our enemy and has been blocking any forward movement Visa-Vi National Power solutions..

the Executive Branch going back at least three Presidents hasn't set National Power Goals.

I like the OS's Plan,
Steve White's plan
3dc's Plan
and LOTS MORE Nukes..

DRILL
DRILL
DRILL

COAL
COAL
COAL

NUKES
NUKES
NUKES

/and euthanize politicians

Posted by Red Dawg">Red Dawg 2008-07-22 15:28|| 2008-07-22 15:28|| Front Page Top

#17 The Enviro wackos have closed down two very large wind farms in California in law suits saying they were a threat to migrantory birds.

The enviros don't want a solution to the energy crisis, such that it is (if there really is a crisis is subject to debate), what they really want is to destroy the industrialized state. They are more anarchists than any thing.

Pickens is good on the wind farms and the increased use of natural gas in transportation. Add Nuclear power as has been stated in this thread and you can cut domestic oil consumption. Add to that drilling for oil in ANWR, the Gulf of Mexico, Tar Sand in North Dakota and Oil Shale in Wyoming and Colorado, you can really cut back on foreign oil.
The last gambit is that by increasing domestic production of oil and reducing consumption, you can buy our engineers and scientists enough time to develop some coherent alternative propulsion systems for cars, trucks, trains, etc., hybrid technology is so jerry rigged as far as I am concerned. Hydrogen is too expensive and biofuels will only work when cellulotic ethanol can be produced in bulk and at lower cost. Making any biofuel out of a food source is bad...except to EarthFirst who believe the ideal human population of Earth is ZERO.
Pickens is on the right path but remember you cannot conserve your way out of an energy production shortage when consumption is rapidly escalating in the "third world". AND most of the third world does not give two hoots in hell about air quality or the environment....

Posted by James Carville 2008-07-22 15:33|| 2008-07-22 15:33|| Front Page Top

#18 Wind power is good for peaking but is no good for base load. It would require storage for that, and storage is so expensive that it is out of the question. Wind farms require (often) huge subsidies as they have been a break-even business in good years, and big losers the rest of the time. Nuclear is good, coal is good, drilling is good. But this windfarm nonsense is just the next swindle from pickens. He pulled the same thing with natural gas a few years ago and go a rather gratuitous platter of federal money to shore him up. The transmission lines for the windfarm give him the right of way he needs to run a massive water pipeline through north texas. Dont for a second believe that this guy is doing this for our good. He'll soak the profit from this and bail out leaving taxpayers with a huge headache to deal with.

Posted by Unese Bonaparte7312 2008-07-22 15:40|| 2008-07-22 15:40|| Front Page Top

#19 Problem with Picken's "Plan" is that birds keep flying into the wind turbine blades. This will sure to rankle the enviros. Save the Birds will threaten to take precedence over Save the Humans.

Posted by Woozle Unusosing8053 2008-07-22 16:24|| 2008-07-22 16:24|| Front Page Top

#20 If I recall correctly, our number one foreign oil supplier is Canada. I do not see Canada as a threat to the U.S. just now.

Posted by trailing wife ">trailing wife 2008-07-22 16:56|| 2008-07-22 16:56|| Front Page Top

#21 On problem with Wind is we tend to think of centralized power. In Northern Germany along the North Sea coast a small town will have its own windmill providing power.

The Bay area could power itself on wind the place is so windy. Convince a few hitech companies to put windmills on their campuses and sell the extra to the grid and you're in business.

Other areas, like Southern California should think of converting rooftops to solar. A different solution for each area and supplement it all with nuke power.

Posted by rjschwarz 2008-07-22 17:15|| 2008-07-22 17:15|| Front Page Top

#22 He [Pickens} added: "I am convinced we are paying for both sides of the Iraqi war."

I have thought this for a long time. The Arabs and Muslims have taken the money we have given them for oil and financed terrorism and hate through the mosques.

Demand for oil is going to keep going up. The price of oil will go right up with the increased demand--unless we change the supply side in some way. If we don't take control of our own energy future, we will continue to be on the mideast oil titty and have to put of with OPEC's price fixing and the focus of their hatred. The price of everything that is transported (which is just about everything) in the USA is affected by oil prices. We can't just keep living the same ol same ol in Washington. We might have to export whacky environmentalists if anyone will have them.

Posted by JohnQC 2008-07-22 17:51|| 2008-07-22 17:51|| Front Page Top

#23 I think 3 lines of wind and solar farms, one on each coast, and one in the center of the country woudl be geographically diverse enough to provide at least a baseline of sustained output, when hooked to the E-W grid. Each would be getting good sustained morning and evening winds at good staggered offsets from each other, and the N-S large reach provides buffers agains regional calm days.

That and changing over to Natural Gas is a quick enough stop-gap while we ramp other things (nukes, electric) up.

Its the first and quickest set of things we can do, while waiting for the effects of drilling, and construction of coal and nuke power plants, and coal conversion (into transport fuel) plants.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-07-22 17:55|| 2008-07-22 17:55|| Front Page Top

#24 Wind power is good for peaking but is no good for base load.

Wind power is good for nothing: nothing tells there will be wind when you need it. Also, most electric gear and all of electronics requires reasonably constant power.

Posted by JFM">JFM 2008-07-22 18:00|| 2008-07-22 18:00|| Front Page Top

#25 The Germans use solar a lot, windmills as well. I believe the home or business owner can get a tax break on solar panels. The excess (to the household) electricity produced must go back into the grid. Electricity in Germany is very, very expensive.

Posted by Besoeker 2008-07-22 18:03|| 2008-07-22 18:03|| Front Page Top

#26 Most vehicles on Perth roads are LNG (often called LPG) powered and conversions continue at a record level, for the simple reason LNG is one third the price of petrol or diesel.

All service stations here sell LPG and filling up your car is no harder than filling it up with petrol. I can't recall a single LPG accident at a service station. LPG is just as safe as petrol.

A conversion costs between $2,000 and $3,000. Do the sums, but for high mileage vehicles like taxis the payback period can be as little as 18 months. (Compare with solar and wind, which are somewhere between 20 years and never)

Otherwise, I agree with Pickens and OS. It's a workable plan. Buying time to build nuclear power stations and with the real prospect of getting off the imported oil addiction for good.

And so what if Pickens is making money out of it. That's capitalism, my friend.

Posted by phil_b 2008-07-22 18:45|| 2008-07-22 18:45|| Front Page Top

#27 The Germans subsidize solar electricity to the tune of over $0.50/kWh. That's over 10X the cost of nuclear or coal generated electricity. And they are supposed to shut down all their nuclear plants. Complete madness. They Germans will freeze in the dark or spend truckloads of Euros on Russian gas. Either one seems to satisfy the Marxist Greens.

US wind power is also highly subsidized. Wind power costs around 10¢/kWh but is federally subsidized to the tune of 3¢/kWh. That is almost the production cost of coal or nuclear electricity, even including all the roadblocks thrown up by our Red-Greens. This includes production subsidies, tax credits of the build, and an accelerated 5 years depreciation schedule. Then there are local electric subsidies. Even then wind still sells for 7¢/kWh.

Still that underestimates wind power costs, since the producers don't have to pay the full cost of the required backup power plants (which use expensive nat gas) as well has wrecking havoc on the power grid when wind approaches 10% of capacity.

Wind is good for reducing fuel consumption. Fortunately the US has 200 years reserves of coal so fuel is not an issue. That leaves CO2, a canard used by primitivists to bash the ignorant and gullible.

Posted by ed 2008-07-22 19:02|| 2008-07-22 19:02|| Front Page Top

#28 I think his plan is a start. I am concerned about the location of the windmills, at least the current huge blade versions (I've seen another design that is more like a jet turbine...much more compact and can operate at much higher wind velocities) because he wants to locate them on the main north-south bird flyway. Seems like a problem waiting to happen.

I am a big fan of converting the commercial rolling stock to natural gas. There will some conversion time for the stations, but that should still be doable.

We need a whole lot more nukes. That and clean coal are obvious. We also need to go after all the oil sources in this country.

The last thing I believe we really need to focus on is distributed generation sources. RJ correctly pointed out that San Francisco could power itself with a local wind farm because of the high winds here. We get sun for 9 months of the year, at least. We should have solar on all the major buildings and houses to contribute to the grid during peak daytime use.

We need to be doing ALL of these things and others I have not mentioned. Pickens is absolutely correct that we cannot continue to send our money overseas. We need to put things into actions and cut off the nuts of the attorneys and enviros that try to stop it.

Posted by remoteman 2008-07-22 19:10|| 2008-07-22 19:10|| Front Page Top

#29 Geographic diversity does make wind and solar power a reliable enough source. Not base load, but certainly good for peaks.

And it certainly is reliable enough in some areas, otherwise it woudl not be in use. QED the incorrrect assumptioons about it being useless.

As for government subsidy for wind and solar? I consider my tax money going there instead of to the Saudis or Hugo Chaves to be acceptable.

This is all about nhational survival strategy, not class warfare.

Remember that most of the initial steps are intermediate solutions, not final ones. Wind, solar and nat-gas use to reduce petroleum demand while the nukes and clean coal are eventually brought online to replace it in the next 3 decades. And we can produce natural gas like crazy domestically.

Wind, solar, natural gas and diesel (biodiesel) we can do now, with the least tech effort, and least political resistance.

Clean coal, more drilling and use of oil shales are good for the intermediate frame, mainly due to political obstruction and engineering/contruction time.

And the long term: nukes, electrical and coal conversion (to diesel and jet fuel), along with diesel electric, better batteries, and fuel cells for applications where batteries weight/power ratio is too restrictive.

That's the path out.

The sooner we start, the sooner we can wave goodbye to the Saudis and Hugo Chavez.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-07-22 20:26|| 2008-07-22 20:26|| Front Page Top

#30 FYI, the very first thing should be President Bush announcing the strateic fuel production program for the US military.

That means a coal to diesel and military fuels (JP4, etc) plant at EVERY major US military installation and port, and conversion of non-combat vehicles from gasoline to diesel or or natural gas, with the objective of making the US Department of Defense completely self sufficient in terms of fuel.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-07-22 20:46|| 2008-07-22 20:46|| Front Page Top

#31 Desperate times my friends, desperate indeed. There's a simple a solution and I have it for you. Cast your seein-eyes upon my ~~fertilizer~~ oil tanks, look right thru the winder thar. Every see such a thing? Hell, yes, that's what I call a shitload of ~~shit~~ oil. There's money to be made here, but we gotta trust each other. My associate Dr. Muckforddo will handle the details.

Posted by Billie Sol Estes Rockets 2008-07-22 20:48|| www.cybernations.net]">[www.cybernations.net] 2008-07-22 20:48|| Front Page Top

#32 If this is such a great idea, why does it need a tax subsidy? When oil goes back to $40 per barrel in a year or so no one will be willing to sign on for any of this.

Pickens knows that the way government destroys something is to tax it. If he really wants to get rid of foreign oil, he should have government tax it so that its price stays high. Then the market will find the best solution. If it's NG cars, great. If electricity wins, fine. But I'm tired of know alls like Pickens and the Clintons and the Obamessiah telling me they've got a solution I have to pay for even though I think it's stupid.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-07-22 20:50|| 2008-07-22 20:50|| Front Page Top

#33 Solar is useful for peaking as electric demand spikes when it is sunny and hot. Wind does not have that relationship to daily electrical demand. It not "reliable" as far as the electric grid is concerned but can swing wildly in a matter of seconds. If wind power is any significant portion of generating capacity, that makes it impossible for generators to compensate for wind fluctuations and requires expensive voltage regulation by huge batteries or flywheels, as well as large amounts of backup gas turbine generators to take over when the wind is not blowing.

Instead of using tax dollars to subsidize wind power, build RELIABLE coal fired plants that generate electricity at 1/3 the price of wind. There is plenty of coal. Or add nuke capacity. Both keep the dollars and jobs in the US.

It is a much better better allocation of limited resources. Would you pay 3X the price for a car that only started 1/3 of the time you wanted to go somewhere, even if the fuel was free?

Posted by ed 2008-07-22 20:51|| 2008-07-22 20:51|| Front Page Top

#34 coal to diesel and military fuels (JP4, etc) plant at EVERY major US military installation and port

Probably the greatest near term payoff and method to cripple our OPEC friends, other than seizing the Saudi oil fields, the US gov could do. Not just in the cost of oil not imported, but also by dropping the marginal cost of every barrel of oil in the world. Add nukes, bypassing the enviro whackos, to produce electricity and hydrogen to get 2.5 times the petroleum from each ton of coal.

Posted by ed 2008-07-22 21:00|| 2008-07-22 21:00|| Front Page Top

#35 I'm all in favor of the "throw as much as we can on the wall and see what sticks" approach. We know how much effect talking has, since we've had that for the past 35 years.

Posted by Fred 2008-07-22 22:42|| 2008-07-22 22:42|| Front Page Top

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