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2007-12-30 China-Japan-Koreas

Fuel Logistics For The Invasion Of Taiwan

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Posted by Anonymoose 2007-12-30 10:18|| || Front Page|| [1 views ] Top

#1 If China is serious, they would have to start stockpiling fuel now or put the nation on serious rationing for 30 days or more. That would really piss off an already irritated youth.

Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader 2007-12-30 10:43|| 2007-12-30 10:43|| Front Page Top

#2 If China is serious, they would have to start stockpiling fuel now or put the nation on serious rationing for 30 days or more. That would really piss off an already irritated youth.

This is probably why China has been putting together a strategic oil reserve. That's probably not counted in Chang's estimate of military reserves. I don't think they'll have a problem with fuel, unless the USAF flies interdiction missions in China proper. Besides, if China can't finish the job in two weeks or less, and Uncle Sam rolls into theater, it can't win the war, fuel or no fuel.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2007-12-30 12:27|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2007-12-30 12:27|| Front Page Top

#3 The science of logistics is in detecting supply problems and overcoming them, or optimally, avoiding them altogether.

If it is terribly difficult for the mainland to invade Taiwan in a conventional manner, then their strategists would be tasked with doing so in an unconventional manner.

For example, why not send an enormous fifth column of invasion personnel to Taiwan over the course of months, or even years, on commercial aircraft and boats? Less "invasion" and more "immigration".

And everything would be easier if there was a political party and propaganda machine advocating reunification. Trying any number of schemes to see what might interest the Chinese living in Taiwan as well as the Taiwanese.

Promising a peaceful reunification like Hong Kong. Considerable self-government. Easy travel for business and pleasure with the mainland. Promises of lucrative business deals. The opening of trade with the rest of the world.

Of course, promising and delivering are two different things.

The primary objective of such activities would be to have so many mainland operatives in the big cities that they could not be rooted out by the US without destroying those cities.

The biggest sticking point would be the Taiwanese military command, but that would not be telling them to stand down against another military, just not to declare martial law and take over the government.

Posted by Anonymoose 2007-12-30 13:23|| 2007-12-30 13:23|| Front Page Top

#4 "Unleash Chiang Kai-Shek!"

borgboy sez we shoulda done it decades ago...

Posted by borgboy2001 2007-12-30 13:30|| 2007-12-30 13:30|| Front Page Top

#5 Anonymooose

I know a number of "old Taiwanese" (A name I give to those whose ancestors were in Taiwan before the Japanses invasion and they think themselves as not Chinese. They want nothing with China period. I don't know the feelings between 1948 Taiwanese (those who came with Tchiang) but if my memory is any good the former are the majority.

Posted by JFM">JFM 2007-12-30 14:31|| 2007-12-30 14:31|| Front Page Top

#6 According to Factbook Taiwan: Taiwanese (Hoklo and Hakka) 84%, mainland Chinese 14%, indigenous 2%.

From the Wiki:

The composite category of "Taiwanese people" is often reputed by many Taiwanese to include a significant population of at least four constituent ethnic groups: the Hoklo (70%), the Hakka (15%), Mainlander (13%), and Taiwanese aborigines (2%).

However, within Taiwan, there is a nationalist criteria, self-identification (including the concept of "New Taiwanese") criteria, and socio-cultural criteria, that are used to distinguish Taiwanese from mainlanders.

Now, this being said, the big question is: would the Taiwanese accept being part of China in the bigger picture over a period of time, in exchange for Hong Kong-like political control, plus a big jump in their international and economic standing; or are they adamant about their independence at any cost?

Posted by Anonymoose 2007-12-30 16:07|| 2007-12-30 16:07|| Front Page Top

#7 "the big question is: would the Taiwanese accept being part of China in the bigger picture over a period of time, in exchange for Hong Kong-like political control"

Yes, that is the big question. And the reality of the matter is that China can have Taiwan any time she wants it. It would take nothing more than wave after wave of paratroops.

It doesn't matter how good Taiwan's weapons are, at some point the supply of them or people to operate them becomes exhausted.

Posted by crosspatch 2007-12-30 18:36|| 2007-12-30 18:36|| Front Page Top

#8 CP - The riposte to your point is to ask how the paratroops get near Taiwan to begin with. I think Moose's point in #3 is far more likely, and the race is on to see whether Taiwan's counterstrategy along the same lines succeeds first.

PRC's big choice is whether it wants to be the PRC, or continue it's comparatively recent and limited foray into the world of free market economics. It's apparent that troubles are piling up there which only have political solutions, and the last place most dictatorships permit politics is in the area we generally recognize as political.

Taiwan has far more practice in these matters, and so do most of the PRC's neighbors for that matter (DPRK being the all-time exception).

If "China" wants to be a power, it won't be the PRC; to the extent the PRC wants power, the economy suffers; the extent the military is involved - everyone loses. I'm still hopeful we'll see the first option, with the PRC slowly but surely withering away. In another fifty years it will be Nixon's only legacy.

Posted by Glung McGurque2454 2007-12-30 20:34|| 2007-12-30 20:34|| Front Page Top

#9 Gotta get the planes over Taiwan before you can drop paratroopers. Taiwan has tens of thousands of anti-air missiles and guns. Maybe one in 10 planes would make it. If that. If they want to use paratroops instead of an amphibious landing, they would need a small tac nuke near the site to take out the electronics to make way.

Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader 2007-12-30 20:56|| 2007-12-30 20:56|| Front Page Top

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