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2007-03-12 Europe

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Posted by Fred 2007-03-12 00:00|| || Front Page|| [6 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 The equation is very simple:

Only the two leading candiadtes go second round. If Bayrou goes against Sarkozy he will benefit from left'zs votes and will win. if it is Royal agaisnt Sarkozy she will get trounced.

Now the raise of BAyrou is due to many left-wing people doubting of Royal's chances so his prospect votes are in fact very frail: if Royal appeared to have a chance many of Bayrou's first round prospevctive voters would return to their original affiliation ie Royal.

At this point it is in Sarkozy's interest to give the impresssion he could lose against Royal.

About antiamericanism. Bayrou is National-europesist. I think he would be worse then Royal respective to America. I can also predict what he will be thinking 30 seconds after getting elected: "How I get reeelcted?". From his past actions as minister I predict he will spend five yeras doing NOTHING and specially nothing who would lower his popularity by 0.0001%
Don't expect any help from him against Iran or on the WOT. In fact he will do the utmost to have a cold war EU-USA.

Posted by JFM">JFM 2007-03-12 04:57|| 2007-03-12 04:57|| Front Page Top

#2 So Royal would be worse domestically, but Bayrou would be worse in foreign policy?

I did see an article that said that if Bayrou gets to the second round, he would beat either Royal or Sarkozy.

Just wonderful.

Posted by Jackal">Jackal 2007-03-12 08:59|| http://home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html]">[http://home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html] 2007-03-12 08:59|| Front Page Top

#3 Of course that Bayrou would beat both: as a 'centric' candidate he would get his own votes, plus either Sarkozy's or Royal's votes while his opponent would get only part of the vote of his own side.

However as I said if Royal recovers only a bit he will bleed voters as fast as he had gained them.

Posted by JFM">JFM 2007-03-12 09:21|| 2007-03-12 09:21|| Front Page Top

#4 Press: "Poll: French election wide open"

Reality: "Shock Sarko landslide"

Posted by Bright Pebbles in Blairistan 2007-03-12 13:11|| 2007-03-12 13:11|| Front Page Top

23:59 Secret Master
23:54 whatadeal
23:41 whatadeal
23:39 DMFD
23:25 whatadeal
23:17 USN, ret.
23:17 OldSpook
23:13 USN, ret.
23:11 OldSpook
22:49 USN, ret.
22:48 JosephMendiola
22:46 JosephMendiola
22:42 JosephMendiola
22:37 Icerigger
22:35 WTF
22:34 JosephMendiola
22:32 Jackal
22:27 Jackal
22:24 Jackal
22:21 JosephMendiola
22:21 Jackal
22:19 Zhang Fei
22:19 Jackal
22:16 JosephMendiola