Article

2006-10-18 Israel-Palestine-Jordan

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by anonymous5089 2006-10-18 09:25|| || Front Page|| [4 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 I confess: I share the fear the Middle East is on the brink of all-out war.

This is because Iraq situation if it does indeed become a civil war, will upset the balance of power and also because America's strength is being increasingly tested and probed by foes.

As Israel's was recently by Hezbollah.

As soon as it seems there is a possibility of knocking them off their perches the arabs won't hesitate.

1) Israel looks weaker to the Arabs after Hezbollah won - and they did win. They are not disarmed or broken, and what happened to those kidnapped soldiers? - temptation for Iran/Syria/Hezbollah to attack

2) Iraq could dissolve into all out civil war: temptation for Iran to invade to secure oil fields.

3) Turkey tempted to invade Iraq in civil war situation to prevent Kurds getting homeland in north

4) Iran extra tempted to strike Israel/USA because Ahmanutterjob is an apocalyptic religious freak who wants to wipe israel off the map and the US off the world stage

5)If Iraq goes to civil war, US image will be weakened as a force, tempting other hostiles to attempt attack

6) China through North Korea probing and testing US tolerance, strength and resolve. Trouble in the middle east would tempt them to jostle for world position as number 1 because US couldn't fight all-out ME war plus a major hot war on the Korean peninsular at the same time.

7) Russia tempted to join an all-out ME war to jostle for power/oil

Iraq is a key strategic piece of the ME jigsaw which is why we went to war in the first place. We couldn't let Saddam hold that chip.

It's the geographic hub around which Iran, Syria, Jordan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia all share borders.

It's the most important geographic jigsaw peace in the war on Islamist extremism as it allows us to pressure these adjoining states to reign in jihadist culture.

That was the idea I believe.

But the stakes are very high if the wheels fall off World War 4 could become a hot war very quickly.

Pax Americana will not go quietly into the night

My question is: what are the Saudis likely to do in the event of civil war in Iraq?

Iran will go in, Turkey may go in to crush kurds... but it's the Sunnis in Iraq that have the bit of territory that doesn't have any oil. Will the Saudis try to help their co-religionists against Iran?

Will the house of Saud view Iran such a big threat that it fights? What will this mean for Syria and Jordan? At the moment they are (i think) strategically aligned with Iran/lebanon/syria against Israel...

It's such a mess I can't work it out.

Posted by anon1 2006-10-18 10:46|| 2006-10-18 10:46|| Front Page Top

#2 I totally disagree. I think the Hezbollah/Hamas team was beaten pretty bad and the Arabs know it. What we are seeing now is posturing in an attempt to restore face in addition to rebuilding which will take years.

Iran won't provoke anything that might preempt an attack. Certainly not before the US elections (they have calanders) and probably not before they have nukes. Better and easier to play off the great nations in the UN.

In Iraq the Sunni recently turned on Al Queda in a big way in the hopes that the sectarian violence which has hurt Sunni far more than Shia will finally end. At the same time the Iraqi police numbers are getting bigger. Its getting time for the US to pile into firebases along the border and let the Iraqi's handle the bulk of internal operations. This leaves our hands free and our enemies puckered.

I think things are far better than most people realize.

Posted by rjschwarz 2006-10-18 11:35|| 2006-10-18 11:35|| Front Page Top

#3 I agree that there is the possibility things are going MUCH better than we realise due in part from the media's love of broadcasting bad news stories from Iraq and ignoring the good stuff.

And I hope that is the case, that Iraqis get behind their new constitution.

But if it does dissolve into civil war, I am not so sure Hezbollah are defeated. I believe they won in ways that counted against Israel (though i wish they didn't).

Hamas, yes, is divided and in civil war. But a regional war would perhaps unite them against their common enemy for the duration of conflict.

I guess my point is a civil war in Iraq (if it were to happen) may prove too tempting for regional players and so become a regional war.

And a regional war in Iraq may prove too tempting for the great powers and become a global hot war the likes of which we haven't seen since our Grandparent's generation.

Posted by anon1 2006-10-18 12:13|| 2006-10-18 12:13|| Front Page Top

#4 There is no doubt that weapons are being smuggled into Leb at a rapid rate. They will, no doubt, try again. I favor allowing a civil war in Iraq. We need to allow them to self destruct. Would Shia led Iraq be more hospitable to US ? Doubt that. Just a different crowd. We can control any situation in the sandbox if we decide to. We just quit playing pattycake. We need to inflict some real casualties in a short time as a demonstration of our will. After a real asskicking(in the millions of casualties), the Muzzies will slink back to regroup. Our understanding of their philosophy is greatly lacking. Our will to be assertive is greatly lacking. If we want to maintain presence in Iraq, we can. If we have misjudged our purpose there, then we should leave. If we leave, the Muzzies will press on, revved up, and the smack down which must then be applied will lead to massive death rates. There is no easy path forward. We're in the swamp now. We either proceed through it, or try to get back out the way we came in.

Posted by SpecOp35 2006-10-18 12:48|| 2006-10-18 12:48|| Front Page Top

#5 A true civil war in Iraq would look like Rwanda with a week of carnage, a lot of dead Sunnis, then peace again, I don't think it would be the drawn out terrible civil war people imagine.

We'd take a hit in our credibility somewhat but on the other hand it would create a big split between the Shia and the Sunni bad guys.

Posted by rjschwarz 2006-10-18 13:02|| 2006-10-18 13:02|| Front Page Top

#6 War in the area would be a good thing. Its the 'peace' when only the enemy gets to shoot and we and the Israels do nothing.

And none of the countries in the area can fight conventionally worth beans. Thats why they shoot babies and buses and leave bombs on the road.

Posted by Oldcat 2006-10-18 17:05|| 2006-10-18 17:05|| Front Page Top

#7 Agree with rj (#2)-Remeber the Iraqi army took over Ramadi last week - the so-called "hotbed of the insurgency". They (and/or coalition - not clear) repelled a complex, three-way attack a day or two later.

Looks good to me.

Posted by Bobby 2006-10-18 17:27|| 2006-10-18 17:27|| Front Page Top

#8 I agree with SpecOp35: the limited responses of Israel in Leb and US forces in Iraq in recent months do not belie some lack of fighting will or power on the part of the soldiers themselves.

These limited responses have been strictly political. And while I sure as hell don't agree with the politics behind pulling punches, I also know that the political has a place right now. If the ridiculous did occur, and Syria/Iran started rolling armor, then Israel/US-Iraq would suddenly conduct operations of a different timbre. Assad knows it. Ahmadinejad knows it.

I am frustrated, too, and can't help but wonder whether or not the pot is slowly boiling. Iraq has a lot to show, to prove that they are worth the cost paid in American/Allied lives.

Posted by Vegas Matt 2006-10-18 19:23|| 2006-10-18 19:23|| Front Page Top

14:51 wxjames
23:59 .com
23:58 .com
23:58 JosephMendiola
23:53 Fred
23:52 Old Patriot
23:52 3dc
23:47 Frank G
23:45 Lanny Ddub
23:44 Hyper
23:42 3dc
23:31 Frank G
23:29 Jomosing Threatle1912
23:29 Frank G
23:26 Frank G
23:24 Frank G
23:16 Zenster
23:09 RWV
23:09 Frank G
23:09 Angie Schultz
23:01 RWV
22:37 Stephen
22:09 no mo uro
22:08 trailing wife