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2006-05-20 Afghanistan

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Posted by Fred 2006-05-20 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11129 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 One other factor that experts seem completely oblivious to is that you can't separate developments between Afghanistan and Pakistan, particularly with much of the border existing only as a legal fiction. Attacks are up in Afghanistan largely because the assembled Bad Guys (Haqqani, Mullah Omar, Tahir Yuldashev, et al.) in Waziristan and the rest of the NWFP and FATA have finally gotten a clue and started actively seizing territory from the Pakistani government. That gives them a secure place to recruit, train, regroup, and formulate new attacks as they go about beating their lives and plotting world domination, hence the uptick in cannon fodder.

Posted by Dan Darling">Dan Darling 2006-05-20 00:12|| http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com]">[http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com] 2006-05-20 00:12|| Front Page Top

#2 Add to that, one reason why there are more firefights is that the NATO forces (including ours) are taking the fight to the Taliban. The press sees a fight and thinks, 'Taliban resurgence', when what really happened is 'NATO intel, insertion, patrol, and whack the Taliban'. Even the Afghan army and police are getting better at this, and they're doing the same thing.

We'll take 8:1 ratios (20:1 is better). At some point potential Taliban recruits are going to start wondering if it isn't better to study auto mechanics.

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2006-05-20 00:59|| 2006-05-20 00:59|| Front Page Top

#3 Bill Roggio is reporting here that:
The fighting in Musa Qala in Helmand province is a bonafide major Taliban attack. The Associated Press reports an "estimated 300-400 militants with assault rifles and machine guns attacked a police and government headquarters" in Musa Qala.

Posted by 3dc 2006-05-20 01:01|| 2006-05-20 01:01|| Front Page Top

#4 A map with current NATO regional assignments at this link
(too slow to put inline)

Posted by 3dc 2006-05-20 01:05|| 2006-05-20 01:05|| Front Page Top

#5 It's accommodating of them to bunch up. The figures reported over the last few days show this to be a major mistake, but that's what happens when experience is getting bumped off - harsh lessons must be relearned.

Posted by eniac 2006-05-20 03:42|| 2006-05-20 03:42|| Front Page Top

#6 Warrior doees n ot automatically imply poor tactics and indiscipline: the Mongols had good tactics and strong siscipline.

On the opposite sense you have armies where discipline is strong but everything goes top down making them inflexible and unable to adapt to reality on the ground and to seize opportunities (Red Army), units are unable to coordinate (Arab armies, Google for the clsssic "Why Arabs lose wars"). See also what happenned to the British in Issandwhana (where a quertermaster refused tos supply ammo because: "it belonged to another unit") as an example of soldier culture gone nuts

Now the real deadly combination is when you get a warrior impetus and initiative with the dedication to training and discipline of the soldier.

Posted by JFM">JFM 2006-05-20 03:56|| 2006-05-20 03:56|| Front Page Top

#7 Afghan militant toll nears 200

This is a significant milestone in the Afghan War. Tonight al-Jezeera's Jim al-Ehrer Report will scroll pictures of the 200 dead jihidis with their names and home villages at the end of his broadcast in honor of these fallen heros.

Analysts question how long a country of Afghanistan's size can sustain losses fo this magnitude. Soon Gold Crescent Mothers will be protesting at Friday prayer meetings at Kabul's main mosque. Afghan will is sure to collapse soon as more and more Afghans turn on Mullah "Chimpy Cyclops" Omar.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-05-20 07:42|| 2006-05-20 07:42|| Front Page Top

#8 Heh.

And don't forget Inshallaburton, an ISI spinoff.

Of course MullaHitler would be taken as a compliment.

Posted by random styling 2006-05-20 07:47|| 2006-05-20 07:47|| Front Page Top

#9 Eight to one kill ratio:

Somedays it just doesn't pay to be a misogynistic asshole.

Posted by badanov 2006-05-20 10:23|| http://www.freefirezone.org]">[http://www.freefirezone.org] 2006-05-20 10:23|| Front Page Top

#10 LOL - youse guys!

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2006-05-20 10:35|| 2006-05-20 10:35|| Front Page Top

#11 Another shining example that Afghanistan is not the center of gravity to the AQ/Taliban. As they move their training and recruiting base out deeper into PAK. I suspect it wont be long before the only news of fighting is raids from cross border, if we are not already there. For us to end this war and not end up chasing them from country to country we must deal with Iran and the Soddi's. We must take the fight to flag pole and stop wrestling with fire bases.

Posted by 49 Pan">49 Pan 2006-05-20 11:38|| 2006-05-20 11:38|| Front Page Top

#12 3dc quote: The Associated Press reports an "estimated 300-400 militants with assault rifles and machine guns attacked a police and government headquarters" in Musa Qala.

These are NVA battalion-sized units. I'm impressed. Iraqi guerrillas can't mount attacks of this size.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2006-05-20 12:11|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2006-05-20 12:11|| Front Page Top

#13 eniac: It's accommodating of them to bunch up. The figures reported over the last few days show this to be a major mistake, but that's what happens when experience is getting bumped off - harsh lessons must be relearned.

We don't know that they're bunching up. But they are massing. And it's not a mistake - it's a necessity if they want to kill large numbers of anti-Taliban personnel. Sending ten guys against a fortified position isn't going to do much. Why do they need so many men? It's simple math - 400 guns will usually win out over 20 guns. The trick is to get out of dodge before coalition air support arrives. If they're smart, they'll learn to time these attacks with a stopwatch. If it hasn't succeeded by a set time, they break it off and skedaddle. The Taliban have two big disadvantages compared to the NVA, though - the lack of triple canopy jungle (to hide their retreat) and smart bombs.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2006-05-20 12:27|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2006-05-20 12:27|| Front Page Top

#14 These are NVA battalion-sized units. I'm impressed. Iraqi guerrillas can't mount attacks of this size.

They infiltrated from just over the Pak border. I'd be much more impressed if the attack was further north. Of course the insurgents in Iraq can't operate as openly in Syria and Iran as the Taliban can in Pakland. If they could, or if the Saudis providing sanctuary, we'd be seeing bigger attacks in Iraq.

As 49pan points out, the war just drags on until we can destroy the enemy center of gravity in Pakistan. The West will tire. Eye-rolling, spittle spewing fanatics will just keep on keeping on.

Posted by 11A5S 2006-05-20 13:42|| 2006-05-20 13:42|| Front Page Top

#15 This war will take 20 years to win. Those of us who see the need TO win had better be willing to last it out.

Posted by lotp 2006-05-20 13:52|| 2006-05-20 13:52|| Front Page Top

#16 And yes, it will shift forms and places, including into latin america and our southern border in a serious way.

Posted by lotp 2006-05-20 13:53|| 2006-05-20 13:53|| Front Page Top

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