Article

2005-03-12 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Revealed: Israel plans strike on Iranian nuclear plant

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-03-12 8:22:25 PM|| || Front Page|| [11133 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Darn, just posted the same article. Fred, please kill the dupe if it pops up.

I see this as an intentional leak to gauge MM's reaction. I think at the moment MM's are not capable to launch a nuke warhead. However, due to the lack of intel sources from Iran, some rocking of boat may reveal few interesting things about current status of their defences (or offences for that matter).

Posted by Sobiesky 2005-03-12 8:35:23 PM|| 2005-03-12 8:35:23 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 Where did the "350 nuclear facilities" count come from? I thought it used to be "300" and I was skeptical even then. I find it very hard to believe that you would have to hit 350 facilities to cripple the program.

Posted by Tom 2005-03-12 8:57:56 PM|| 2005-03-12 8:57:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 Only a fraction of those 350 would be the critical ones, but which? Redundance is also essential, so just destroying 1 of 5 or 10 places that can make something won't do. Debka gave the original estimate of 350, but I wouldn't think it unreasonable. Making nukes isn't easy. http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=940

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-03-12 9:02:52 PM|| 2005-03-12 9:02:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 The much-touted Atlantic Monthly account of war games had less than 125 nuclear sites:

"The second part of the simulation consisted of air strikes on suspected Iranian nonconventional weapons sites and support facilities. The magazine said the Pentagon and intelligence community identified 300 such sites, including 125 biological, chemical and nuclear complexes."

Source: http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=41989

Posted by Tom 2005-03-12 9:32:13 PM|| 2005-03-12 9:32:13 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 I agree that this is a deliberate leak designed to shake the tree and see what falls out. A secondary purpose might be to spread disinformation about the details of the attack, in order to throw the MM's intelligence network (aka the western media) off the track. When the blow comes, the method will likely be a complete surprise.

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2005-03-12 9:51:22 PM|| 2005-03-12 9:51:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 God be with them!

Posted by Joanne 2005-03-12 9:57:22 PM|| 2005-03-12 9:57:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 Marshmallow Man?! ;-)

Posted by Sobiesky 2005-03-12 10:01:36 PM|| 2005-03-12 10:01:36 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 The could be the "big one."
As I indicated back in January, I suspect that at least some of Israel's Arrow interceptor missiles have nuclear warheads. This is the best way to be sure that an oncoming ballistic missile is killed dead rather than just damaged or knocked off course. The conventional Arrow is marginal at best against a ballistic missile with the the kind of flight performance needed to reach Israel from Iran. The nuclear option, most likely a low kiloton or sub-kiloton device, turns a very chancey proposition into a much more sure one.

This raises a sticky political problem: Any ballistic missile coming from Iran must be assumed to have a nuclear warhead. It may not have, but it will be too late by the time this can be definitely determined, most likely by a rising mushroom cloud.
Hence the nuclear Arrow would have to be launched without definite knowledge that the target was also a nuke, which would be "first-use" and therefore condemned by the global moonbat-appeasement community. The PM would have about 60 seconds to decide, and he would have to get it right.
Personally, I would give the "go" signal and tell the "international community" to get stuffed.

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2005-03-12 10:26:01 PM|| 2005-03-12 10:26:01 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 You'd be surprised at the strike options Israel has.

None of them depend on the good will of the US or any regional power.

Posted by OldSpook 2005-03-12 10:28:55 PM|| 2005-03-12 10:28:55 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 I wouldn't be, OS, unless they are prepared to launch an Orion to the Moon and drop meteors on the mullahs (maybe not even then).

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2005-03-12 10:43:22 PM|| 2005-03-12 10:43:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 I ment to say "none of the ones I have in mind" depend on the good will of the US or regional powers, nor are they neccesarily nuclear. I bet they have dependent ones in addtion to their ability to act unilaterally, and nuclear ones in addition to the conventional ones.

The use of any of them would be catastrophic for politics in the region (really hurting the US in Iraq, and the freedom movements in Syria and Iran), but not nearly as catastrophic as a NUDET over Jerusalem or Tel Aviv or Hafia.

One thing I'd do if I were Sharon: Make sure the Mullahs and Saudis know, in no uncertain terms, that a nuke detonation over Israel will bring multiple 100KT detonations at 100M over all of Mecca & Medina in Saudi and Qom & Mashad in Iran, followed by a high altitude airburst "dirty bomb" on each with enough Cesium and strontium to destroy each area and prevent anyone entering them for several centuries. Addtionally, the immediate demolishing of the Dome of the Rock by rocket, bomb, tank fire and D9 dozers to finish the job, the stones from which will be dumped at sea, after which a parking lot will be established there.

Tell the Muslims they can pray to a smoking radioactive ruin or else leave Israel alone - its their choice.

Posted by OldSpook 2005-03-12 10:43:57 PM|| 2005-03-12 10:43:57 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 Orion, Rolando Gutierrez's graphic presentation. Many more references at site.

Israel probably does not have enough nukes to build an Orion but the other required technology would not present any great difficulty and has much more in common with submarines and armored warships than with conventional aerospace practice.
In fact, when Orion was an active program during the early '60s, the managers tentatively selected nuke-submarine builder Electric Boat as the contractor. EB would build the secret spaceship on a barge in a covered drydock at their facility in Groton, Conn. When finished, it would be floated out and towed via the Panama Canal to the selected launch site, Johnston Island in the Pacfic.

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2005-03-12 10:58:25 PM|| 2005-03-12 10:58:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 "As I indicated back in January, I suspect that at least some of Israel's Arrow interceptor missiles have nuclear warheads."

Not that I am not any type of military expert, but could nukes realistically be kept in the state of readiness required by extremely short advance warning defensive weapons systems such as the Arrow?

Posted by Babson 2005-03-12 11:01:54 PM|| 2005-03-12 11:01:54 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 Babson, absolutely.

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2005-03-12 11:02:58 PM|| 2005-03-12 11:02:58 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 To be a little more specific, the time required to arm a nuke is classified but it is well within the window for intercepting an IRBM warhead.

Everything depends on how quickly the Prime Minister could make the decision. The overall warning time would be on the order of 10 minutes, so we could assume 6 minutes if a decision could be reached and transmitted immediately. There are undoubtedly direct communication links for this.

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2005-03-12 11:08:02 PM|| 2005-03-12 11:08:02 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 If it happens it will be a joint US-Israel attack.

Posted by Ebbavith Craviter1965 2005-03-12 11:09:04 PM|| 2005-03-12 11:09:04 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 EMP would wreak havoc in the region.

Posted by OldSpook 2005-03-12 11:10:25 PM|| 2005-03-12 11:10:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 You'd be surprised at the strike options Israel has.

None of them depend on the good will of the US or any regional power.

Posted by OldSpook 2005-03-12 10:28:55 PM|| 2005-03-12 10:28:55 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 I ment to say "none of the ones I have in mind" depend on the good will of the US or regional powers, nor are they neccesarily nuclear. I bet they have dependent ones in addtion to their ability to act unilaterally, and nuclear ones in addition to the conventional ones.

The use of any of them would be catastrophic for politics in the region (really hurting the US in Iraq, and the freedom movements in Syria and Iran), but not nearly as catastrophic as a NUDET over Jerusalem or Tel Aviv or Hafia.

One thing I'd do if I were Sharon: Make sure the Mullahs and Saudis know, in no uncertain terms, that a nuke detonation over Israel will bring multiple 100KT detonations at 100M over all of Mecca & Medina in Saudi and Qom & Mashad in Iran, followed by a high altitude airburst "dirty bomb" on each with enough Cesium and strontium to destroy each area and prevent anyone entering them for several centuries. Addtionally, the immediate demolishing of the Dome of the Rock by rocket, bomb, tank fire and D9 dozers to finish the job, the stones from which will be dumped at sea, after which a parking lot will be established there.

Tell the Muslims they can pray to a smoking radioactive ruin or else leave Israel alone - its their choice.

Posted by OldSpook 2005-03-12 10:43:57 PM|| 2005-03-12 10:43:57 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 EMP would wreak havoc in the region.

Posted by OldSpook 2005-03-12 11:10:25 PM|| 2005-03-12 11:10:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#21 Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]

Posted by OldSpook 2005-03-12 10:28:55 PM|| 2005-03-12 10:28:55 PM|| Front Page Top

#22 Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]

Posted by OldSpook 2005-03-12 10:43:57 PM|| 2005-03-12 10:43:57 PM|| Front Page Top

#23 Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]

Posted by OldSpook 2005-03-12 11:10:25 PM|| 2005-03-12 11:10:25 PM|| Front Page Top

23:23 Dean Wormer
23:10 OldSpook
23:09 Ebbavith Craviter1965
23:08 Atomic Conspiracy
23:06 Biff Wellington
23:02 Atomic Conspiracy
23:01 Babson
22:58 Atomic Conspiracy
22:46 Shipman
22:43 OldSpook
22:43 Atomic Conspiracy
22:38 Shipman
22:35 Napoleon II
22:31 Shipman
22:30 Sobiesky
22:28 OldSpook
22:26 Atomic Conspiracy
22:18 FlameBait
22:01 Sobiesky
21:57 Joanne
21:51 Atomic Conspiracy
21:37 Tom
21:33 Tom
21:33 Jonathan