Article

2005-01-10 Iraq-Jordan

Round Up the Usual Suspects, Dead or Alive

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Posted by Steve 2005-01-10 9:09:30 AM|| || Front Page|| [9 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 About time! Until this job is actually completed the war will not be won. The current situation seems to be pretty much a bloody stalemate with the insurrection blocking any forward progress in a big part of Iraq and tying down a significant number of US ground forces. Both sides will continue to bleed for years unless something changes soon.

IMO the Sunni leadership fence sitters should also be selectively targeted, at least for the arrest and hostage side of it, because they are providing financial and other aid to the insurrection. Until they get the idea that there is a cost to not supporting a new Iraqi government they will continue in the insurrection camp. When the choice is death from the Baathists vs. a stern lecture from the IIG they will of course comply with the Baathists, even if they would rather just get on with normal life.

Posted by DO 2005-01-10 11:08:46 AM|| 2005-01-10 11:08:46 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 May I suggest dead?

Posted by Barbara Skolaut 2005-01-10 2:15:41 PM|| 2005-01-10 2:15:41 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 The fuzzy middle will be used for intel gathering and leverage will be required in order to compel them to devulge. In this regard, it will revert to Sunni versus Sunni-Saddam loyalists.

This compelled intel will accelerate the network-based investigation, and more speedily roll up the dead ender 8%.

Happy huntin' folks.

Posted by Captain America 2005-01-10 7:17:17 PM|| 2005-01-10 7:17:17 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 DO points out one of the keys, not yet exploited, to bringing this insurgency under control. It's about realizing how they thin and forgetting what makes sense to a Westerner.

The entire society subscribes to a loyalty pyramid of family, clan, and tribe. There are considerable spices tossed in: flavor of Islam, Iraqi, Arab, Muslim First, et al, b ut they are secondary to that blood and politics trio.

Want to control a family? You take the Patriarch and his top scions.

Want to control a clan? Take the Clan Leader, his top scions, and his council, the Family Patriarchs.

Want to control a tribe? You get the idea.

And tribe is where the action is. The decisions are made here:

Benign Example...
We protect the pipeline where it crosses "our lands" cuz we're being paid by the Coalition to do so, just like Saddam did. The jihadis are threatening one of us? Okay, let them blow it up. It'll only be out of commission a few days, we'll explain we can't be 100% perfect - the infidels will forgive us, and the jihadis will get press coverage. For them, Saddam is little different from the Iraqi Gov't. They expect to wheel 'n deal with it - and receive concessions in their territory.

Malignant Example...
We will support and hide the "fighters". We will help in smuggling in the cash and explosives, taking only our "cut". We will supply them with the hotheads and willing / malleable young men of the tribe. On the surface, despite how common the knowledge is that they are involved, they will take the same approach with the Gov't: cut us some deals and conceed to us control of our traditional territory.

Take the Tribal Leader and his council of Clan Leaders and turn ~~up the heat~~ on the charm. Who they are is no secret, just ask - everyone in a Tribe can fill out your program.

The Brits have tried the soft side of this, using bribery, and had it blow up in their faces, so I believe they have backed off of any large-scale deals.

It is well past time to remove the bad Tribal Leaders and Clan Leaders, but anytime will do better than never. Shake the whole Sunni heirarchy up. Offer the jihadi Tribal Lands to the more moderate / benign Tribes - and back them up militarily. Start a fire in their tent.

Posted by .com 2005-01-10 7:42:52 PM|| 2005-01-10 7:42:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 Do it the way we did it during the Indian wars. Set tribe against tribe. Pick somee tribes to get privileged status. They only get the privileges, and continue to keep them, if they work against the outlaw tribes.

Posted by DO 2005-01-10 8:32:05 PM|| 2005-01-10 8:32:05 PM|| Front Page Top

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