Archived material Access restricted Article
Rantburg

Today's Front Page   View All of Thu 12/16/2004 View Wed 12/15/2004 View Tue 12/14/2004 View Mon 12/13/2004 View Sun 12/12/2004 View Sat 12/11/2004 View Fri 12/10/2004
1
2004-12-16 Home Front: WoT
Coming geopolitical quakes
Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.
Posted by Dragon Fly 2004-12-16 11:08:14 AM|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 Bring back the Evil Empire. At least the Soviets were a rational enemy who's end game was total planetary annihilation.
Posted by Rightwing 2004-12-16 11:17:06 AM||   2004-12-16 11:17:06 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Wow-that was a ride. Interesting exercise in long-term global considerations.

Two initial questions-how does America fuel itself?
Why would there be US embassies in Europe?


Posted by Jules 187 2004-12-16 11:27:26 AM||   2004-12-16 11:27:26 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 But all the above mayhem and disorder was forgotten when it became obvious that Sol was not the Main Sequence star it was thought to be....
Posted by Shipman 2004-12-16 11:39:55 AM||   2004-12-16 11:39:55 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
Posted by C. Little 2004-12-16 11:40:39 AM||   2004-12-16 11:40:39 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 Shipman-Was that English? Hunh?
Posted by Jules 187 2004-12-16 11:43:06 AM||   2004-12-16 11:43:06 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 
    • Menudo reunites. All of them.
  • Posted by BH 2004-12-16 11:45:00 AM||   2004-12-16 11:45:00 AM|| Front Page Top

    #7 Islamist radicals sally out of their European slum tenements to besiege U.S. Embassies in protest of their jobless plight.

    I can believe this. Anything bad for Muslims has got to be the fault of either the U.S. or Israel.
    Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2004-12-16 11:47:21 AM||   2004-12-16 11:47:21 AM|| Front Page Top

    #8 Amusing thought experiment, but not bloody likely. Shipman's and BH's suggestions are more probable.
    Posted by trailing wife 2004-12-16 11:47:31 AM||   2004-12-16 11:47:31 AM|| Front Page Top

    #9 It's the End of the World as we know it
    And I fine
    Posted by Anginese Flineger1775 2004-12-16 11:48:15 AM||   2004-12-16 11:48:15 AM|| Front Page Top

    #10 Ok....right.
    Look, I still remember when everyone was saying it was just a matter of time before America and Russia literally went nuclear on each other, the mighty Japanese economy was going to swamp ours, and we were gonna run out of oil before I was legally old enough to drink.
    Then, of course, Armageddon was going to hit at the turn of the new millenium (it cracked me up that they always said the new millenium was starting in 2000, not 2001), or at least the computers were all going to go down and we would be back to the stone age overnight.
    Can't forget the tens of thousands of body bags we were going to need because the Iraqi army was going to kick our asses, or the impossibility of successfully invading Afghanistan because Britain and Russia couldn't do it.
    The only difference between these predictions and what you get out of the Weekly World News is that they are printed on better paper.
    Posted by Desert Blondie 2004-12-16 11:48:31 AM||   2004-12-16 11:48:31 AM|| Front Page Top

    #11 All of this was foreseen in that great 1997 movie "The Postman".
    Posted by Kevin Costner 2004-12-16 11:51:52 AM||   2004-12-16 11:51:52 AM|| Front Page Top

    #12 Or as my brother called it, "Land World."
    Posted by Seafarious  2004-12-16 11:58:53 AM||   2004-12-16 11:58:53 AM|| Front Page Top

    #13 You have to remember that this is "Arnaud" "de Borchgrave", a man whose predictions pan out just about never, which doesn't prevent him from coming out with a whole new set of predictions that probably won't pan out either. I could waste a bunch of time showing how many of his assumptions are garbage, but that would be a waste of my time, since he gets paid to put out his garbage, and I don't.
    Posted by Zhang Fei  2004-12-16 12:06:10 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2004-12-16 12:06:10 PM|| Front Page Top

    #14 the mighty Japanese economy was going to swamp ours...
    :-)
    Posted by lex 2004-12-16 12:11:08 PM||   2004-12-16 12:11:08 PM|| Front Page Top

    #15 I think I'll just hide under my bed today! Yikes!

    Seriously though, the potential for massive geopolitical swings over the next decade is VERY real. America needs to continue to build its OWN momentum in conjunction with REAL allies, or risk being tossed about by each swing! That’s why Kerry’s RE-active policies would have been so dangerous (and even then, REacting only if the U.N. said “ok”).


    Posted by Justrand 2004-12-16 12:13:29 PM||   2004-12-16 12:13:29 PM|| Front Page Top

    #16 One prominent China-US war scenario is that China will attempt to neutralize the US pacific fleet by detonating nuclear devices at Bremerton and San Diego. The US has no other major repair/refuel/rearmament/resupply ports available to it in the Pacific. Pearl, Subic and Guam do not have all the needed support available. N.B.: the US Navy has long been aware of this possibility, and I doubt they have been idle in trying to counter it.
    Posted by Anonymoose 2004-12-16 12:15:52 PM||   2004-12-16 12:15:52 PM|| Front Page Top

    #17 Massive? Bullfeathers. The only major transformation that will occur is the same one that's been unfolding inexorably for the last two decades: the rise of China to global power status. Russia will continue to decline into a Europe-based oil kleptocracy whose eastern regions will fall under China's orbit; the Euro-chihuahuas will continue to yap, and no one will listen. Israel and Palestine will continue their war. Africa will continue to burn. Latin America will continue to muddle along in its usual chaotic way.

    The only really interesting and unknown interactions are between the China and its neighbors, and China and the US. Everything else is secondary.

    Posted by lex 2004-12-16 12:21:30 PM||   2004-12-16 12:21:30 PM|| Front Page Top

    #18 ...and the kicker, Anna Nicole Smith elected President of the United States.
    Posted by tu3031 2004-12-16 12:23:53 PM||   2004-12-16 12:23:53 PM|| Front Page Top

    #19 lex, don't forget China and China. They're liable to have a national nervous breakdown as they often have in the past. Also, you left out the Frankenteich-Arabia-China axis that is coalescing.
    Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-12-16 12:25:40 PM||   2004-12-16 12:25:40 PM|| Front Page Top

    #20 Anonymoose: One prominent China-US war scenario is that China will attempt to neutralize the US pacific fleet by detonating nuclear devices at Bremerton and San Diego.

    I don't see China doing this for fear of nuclear annihilation.
    Posted by Zhang Fei  2004-12-16 12:27:28 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2004-12-16 12:27:28 PM|| Front Page Top

    #21 "Frankenteich-Arabia-China axis"?? The French can't even reconcile themselves to secular Turkey, let alone Arabia, let alone China. The only game in town is China. Europe will sink into Canada status in this century.
    Posted by lex 2004-12-16 12:28:49 PM||   2004-12-16 12:28:49 PM|| Front Page Top

    #22 No wonder the 9/11 Commissioners said a lack of imagination was a big reason why 9/11 could happen. That something is not probable does not mean it isn't possible. Each of these points should be addressed, rather than discounted as a whole.

    When did rantburgers get so close-minded and blase as to not at least consider whether any of these things could happen?
    Posted by Jules 187 2004-12-16 12:31:10 PM||   2004-12-16 12:31:10 PM|| Front Page Top

    #23 Dhimmitude is submission, not reconciliation. The French will be telling themselves they're calling the shots, but they'll be doing Beijing's bidding.
    Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-12-16 12:31:37 PM||   2004-12-16 12:31:37 PM|| Front Page Top

    #24 J187: No wonder the 9/11 Commissioners said a lack of imagination was a big reason why 9/11 could happen.

    The 9/11 generated horse puckeys and was a waste of public money. The problem was not a failure of imagination - it was a failure of will. Zacarias Moussaoui - an Arab man whose only declared interest during his flight training was in learning how to fly jumbo jets, not take-offs and landings - was in American custody for a month before 9/11. Instead of rigorously interrogating him for information, the American justice system let his laptop go unexamined because of some technicality. When faced with a similar situation in the early 90's, the Filipinos practically killed their Muslim prisoner and finally pulled what they needed out of him.

    De Borchgrave is a Frenchman who is convinced that America is doomed. I trust his judgment about as much as I trust that of the Democratic Underground. Reading his material is a complete waste of time.
    Posted by Zhang Fei  2004-12-16 12:49:35 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2004-12-16 12:49:35 PM|| Front Page Top

    #25 ZF: The 9/11 generated horse puckeys and was a waste of public money.

    That should have read: "The 9/11 Commission generated horse puckeys and was a waste of public money."
    Posted by Zhang Fei  2004-12-16 12:50:59 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2004-12-16 12:50:59 PM|| Front Page Top

    #26 OK, Jules, here's my 45-second handicapping of the probability of each occurrence (from 0.0 to 1.0, <=0.3 means very unlikely, >=0.6 means very likely):

    • The dollar ceases to be the world’s reserve currency. 0.4. Political stability and strength also matter. Euro interest rates are based on completely bogus Euro budget data.
    • The shaky coalition governing Iraq collapses and civil war breaks out between Sunnis and Shi’ites. 0.4 The sunni problem is a ba'athist one primarily. Will diminish as new govt continues apace. Solution to disenfranchisement is to apportion seats geographically as well as by vote, thus give weight to sunni triangle.
    • Fear of the unknown produces a new consensus in the U.S. that global civilization is no longer America’s business. 0.0 Even small US businessmen today (midwest small manufacturers, TX and southwestern truckers and farmers and other producers) are tied into global trade.
    • The U.S. debate shifts to adequate city perimeter defenses. 0.0 no comment (do you think Lockheed would permit it?
    • With the U.S. no longer the global cop, the defense budget of almost half a trillion dollars can be drastically pruned and savings transferred to homeland security. 0.0 see above
    • U.S. client states are informed they are on their own. Congress abolishes global aid. 0.0 this aid comes back to us in the form of purchases of aircraft, weapons etc
    • Egypt loses its annual stipend of $2.5 billion; Taiwan and Israel are told they will must fend for themselves. 0.0
    • Social trust becomes the new glue of society — bonding with like-minded neighbors with shared values. moron. Trust is the glue of society, always has been
    • International coalitions dissolve and new ones emerge. Which coalitions? China seizes new opportunities for its short- and long-range needs for raw materials in the developing world — from Brazil to sub-Saharan Africa’s pockets of mineral wealth. This has been happening for some time already.
    • The United States, Canada and Mexico form a new stand-alone alliance with Britain. 0.1 Canada's useless. mexico's worse than useless. If there's to be any new US alliance it will be Asia-centric and will include Japan, Australia and maybe India
    • Turkey, Israel and Iran become a new self-protection core against dysfunctional neighbors with no upward mobility. Hilarious. Israel and Iran, united in a "self-protection core"
    • The European Union and Russia, in continuing decline, close ranks what, and jointly invade... Chechnya? Ukraine? Moldova? Kaliningrad?; EU inherits de facto responsibility what does this mean? for Africa south of the Sahara, plagued by genocidal wars and the AIDS epidemic.
    • China and India, with one-third of the world’s population, and competitive with Western countries in high-tech jobs and technology, form a de facto alliance. more of that de facto magic dust. When de man don't know de shit, reach fo de facto
    • Pakistan’s pro-American President Pervez Musharraf does not survive the ninth assassination plot; an Islamist general takes over and appoints A.Q. Khan, former chief executive of an international nuclear black market for the benefit of America’s "axis of evil" enemies, as Pakistan’s new president. 0.6 The only intelligent and remotely possible thought he's had. Worth considering.
    • The House of Saud is shaken to its foundations as a clutch of younger royal princes, who have served in the armed forces, arrest the plus 70-year-olds now in charge — known as the Sudairi seven — and call for the kingdom’s first elections. less than 0.0 Hereditary princes call for elections. What's wrong with this picture?• Osama bin Laden returns to Saudi Arabia and is welcomed as a national hero. Bin Laden scores an overwhelming plurality in the elections and is the country’s most popular leader. Elections won't happen but an armed uprising might succeed in overthrowing House o Cards, er Saud.
    • A.Q. Khan sends bin Laden his congratulations and dispatches to Riyadh his new defense minister, Gen. Hamid Gul, a former intelligence chief and admirer of the world’s most wanted terrorist, who hates America with a passion. His mission is to negotiate a caliphate merging Pakistan’s nuclear weapons with Saudi oil resources and monetary reserves. 0.1
    • Northern Nigeria petitions Islamabad and Riyadh to be considered as a member of the caliphate. 0.1
    • Absent the long-time global cop, and traditional alliances in shambles, transnational criminal enterprises thrive with unfettered access the world over. Score one for de Borchgrave: 0.8 These groups are thriving already and are integrated into the global economy. Russia's corporations are transnational semi-criminal enterprises. Much of Latin America's economic activity is interspersed with organized crime, as is Japan's. Even western multinationals such as the Big Pharma companies, reinsurance companies and others routinely fix prices and engage in other forms of criminal collusion.
    • U.S. multinational companies, unable to protect their plants and employees, return whence they came.
    • International airlines morph back into interregional air links. 0.1 Trans-pacific and UK-US transatlantic routes are the most profitable.
    • Switzerland, a small defensive country with compulsory military service, is in vogue again; At least he didn't say "de facto in vogue"...but what does this mean? Swiss banking secrecy is already on its way out. What will sustain the Swiss economy? larger countries with several ethnic groups begin breaking apart a la Yugoslavia. Really? With thousands slaughtered in decade-long civil wars?
    • Goods stamped "Made in China. Secured in Singapore" are back in business, smuggled into the United States. ???
    • The EU can no longer cope with millions of North Africans and sub-Sahara Africans flooding into Spain, Italy, France, who roam freely and hungry or free and hungrily? in the rest of Europe. Islamist radicals sally out of their European slum tenements to besiege U.S. Embassies in protest of their jobless plight. 0.5
    • Japan goes nuclear after U.S. troops withdraw from South Korea. duh. 0.7

    Wish I too could get paid to do this
    Posted by lex 2004-12-16 12:56:34 PM||   2004-12-16 12:56:34 PM|| Front Page Top

    #27 I share your suspicion of De Borchgrave, but not to the extent that I close my mind to thinking about what our world could look like in a few years or what forces are building now (voices within the US that we no longer allow ourselves to be "the global cop", that we transfer defense budgets to "handle homeland security", that current "trust"worthiness becomes as or more important than allied history, that we bond "with like-minded neighbors with shared values", that "international coalitions dissolve and new ones emerge...").

    This does not discount what you say about Moussaoui, nor does it mean that imagination is more important than willpower or a change in border security, immigration, IDs, etc.
    Posted by Jules 187 2004-12-16 1:02:53 PM||   2004-12-16 1:02:53 PM|| Front Page Top

    #28 Isolationism is always the natural and most poerful tug on Americans' sensibilities. However, the economic and political and other interest-group elites in this country won't let it happen. We have far too many interests at stake. If De Borchgrave's view were correct we would have undone NAFTA by now.
    Posted by lex 2004-12-16 1:05:29 PM||   2004-12-16 1:05:29 PM|| Front Page Top

    #29 The "economic and political and other interest-group elites" in this country won't have a choice if enough Americans get agitated enough about it. (Yeah RBers, I see your "agitation" jokes coming, but try to keep in mind, we wouldn't be talking about crowds of lefties crying in the public square about slaughtered minks-we'd be talking about pissed off Americans who've had it with playing Atlas for the world, and rightly so.)

    It's difficult now to see how such a reaction on a large majority of American's part could happen, but what if 2, 3, 4 major WTC-type attacks happened in this country? Do you imagine the meter read would stay static on international trade, border control, continually putting up with treachery from cowardly allies and robber partners?
    Posted by Jules 187 2004-12-16 1:16:55 PM||   2004-12-16 1:16:55 PM|| Front Page Top

    #30 Newsflash: Marx was wrong. Technology, not socio-political factors, is the primary determinant of history.
    Posted by phil_b 2004-12-16 2:03:14 PM||   2004-12-16 2:03:14 PM|| Front Page Top

    #31 Jules 187 - Well, yeah, it's a possibility there could be another WTC type attack on the US, but that does not mean that it is likely.
    There are a lot of countries that would love to see us take another hit like that, but after Afghanistan and Iraq, they're not going to give substantial support to anyone willing to pull that off. The last thing their leaders want to do is go on the run and leave their extravagant lifestyles behind. They're pissed off, but not suicidal or stupid.
    Look at Qadaffi (or however the hell you spell that Libyan leader's name). It wasn't a moment of moral clarity that caused him to act the way he did earlier this year. He's in power and wants to stay there. He was afraid he was next.
    That kind of thing is more likely to hit Europe than us. Why? #1 - Outside of Britain, none of those countries can mount a large, retaliatory attack, #2 - They are easier to attack, since they are closer and there are far more Arabs they can hide among until the time comes to strike, and #3 - if they are attacked, they're not going to do much about it (Spain, 3/11/03). The only question they have is if we are going to retaliate for an attack on, say, France.
    Considering how popular the Europeans are here in the States, and how far our forces are stretched, I wouldn't bet on it. But if the Islamic terrorists ever think seriously that we wouldn't retaliate on their behalf, it could get ugly over there.
    Posted by Desert Blondie 2004-12-16 2:09:30 PM||   2004-12-16 2:09:30 PM|| Front Page Top

    #32 BH even Ricky Martin? Run for the hills!!!
    Posted by Ol_Dirty_American 2004-12-16 2:22:36 PM||   2004-12-16 2:22:36 PM|| Front Page Top

    #33 DB: There are a lot of countries that would love to see us take another hit like that, but after Afghanistan and Iraq, they're not going to give substantial support to anyone willing to pull that off.

    I disagree. That is why Iran is so keen on The Bomb and a way to deliver it. They will continue their terror work by proxy, no doubt, but any response from the US would have to be especially measured. Once Iran tests a nuke, it's a whole new ballgame.
    Posted by Rafael 2004-12-16 2:56:02 PM||   2004-12-16 2:56:02 PM|| Front Page Top

    #34 The U.S. debate shifts to adequate city perimeter defenses.

    Cincinnati withdraws to the I-275 loop/wall; Dayton is abandoned.
    Posted by Robert Crawford  2004-12-16 3:02:45 PM|| [http://www.kloognome.com/]  2004-12-16 3:02:45 PM|| Front Page Top

    #35 "Blue state" cities fort up...and "red state" Americans begin work on their siege engines...
    Posted by Seafarious  2004-12-16 3:18:59 PM||   2004-12-16 3:18:59 PM|| Front Page Top

    #36 There's lots to ponder here, all right, but not necessarily what the idiot-stick that devised this list thought. The problem is, this guy represents the thinking in Europe about the United States. Half of what he projects is wishful thinking, not intelligent estimation of probability. Another WTC attack may equally result in a number of glass-encrusted cities throughout the Middle East. I have no doubt that Japan is considering the requirements of building a nuclear deterrent to North Korea, possibly even the development of everything but the nuclear fuel itself. I also feel that Taiwan, seeing the rapaciousness of China in Hong Kong, has decided that it will go out in a suicidal bang, rather than be overrun. CHINA needs to understand that, as well.

    There are two major considerations missing from this bunch of bs: the US is the leader in technological innovation, and the US produces a third of the world's wealth. The US also produces a huge percentage of the world's food, and food handling technology. The rest of the world can get along without us, but only if they wish to take a huge step backwards economically, socially, culturally, and medically. The islamofruitcakes are willing to make that choice, since that lifestyle represents their "ideal". I don't think the rest of the world, even China, is that crazy.
    Posted by Old Patriot  2004-12-16 4:07:44 PM|| [http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/]  2004-12-16 4:07:44 PM|| Front Page Top

    #37 This is so much fatuous crap. If there are several more WTC events then the size of the US military is going to double through voluntary enlistment. Arnaud doesn't know anything about this country it seems. He forgets what the response was like to the first WTC event. Americans rallied together and then went to do some ass kicking. If it happens again, we sure as hell won't run and hide. That is a FRENCH reaction Ar-node, not an American one. Putz.
    Posted by Remoteman 2004-12-16 4:12:36 PM||   2004-12-16 4:12:36 PM|| Front Page Top

    #38 Jules are you one of the sheeple that think Sol is really Main Sequence? Non main sequence is can be purdy bad.
    Posted by Shipman 2004-12-16 4:31:25 PM||   2004-12-16 4:31:25 PM|| Front Page Top

    #39 Shipman-

    I don't know where Jules 187 went-she just started screaming, "oh my God, high school science has come back to get me, it's attacking me, help!" and ran for the bathroom. I don't know what's going on, but I can hear sobbing...
    Posted by Maxwell Smart 2004-12-16 4:39:52 PM||   2004-12-16 4:39:52 PM|| Front Page Top

    #40 "Sol was not the Main Sequence star it was thought to be" explained:
    This is one of our most basic assumptions. The (historically well founded) belief that The Sun rises in the east relies on it. It might not be true.

    "Main Sequence" refers to a class of stars with a certain lifetime behavior. It is believed that Main Sequence stars are predictable over their 5-10 billion year lifetime, with fairly minimal deviation from continuous, smooth behavior. We further believe that Sol is a member of this class.

    We believe this to be true because our models fit the observed data fairly well. It might not be true because the data set is very small. We've got vague historical (ice cores etc) records going back hundreds of thousands of millions of years. We're not entirely sure how to interpret that data. Our detailed observations of the surface of Sol only go back to Galileo. Our first (and to date only) observations of the internals of Sol are through Solar Neutrinos, which have singularly poor resolution. Even Total Solar Output has only recently (SolarMax, ACRIMSat) been measured with accuracy greater than its impact on climate.

    In short, it could be wrong. It doesn't seem likely or of immediate concern, but we can't really be sure.

    More broadly, this is one potential catastrophic (annihilating?) event that we can't properly forsee and currently lack the ability to do anything about. That doesn't mean it won't happen. In fact, such events have happened... every 50-100 million years. Another will happen eventually. Kinda like an earthquake. The question is whether it looks like Bam (or worse) or Loma Prieta/Northridge.
    Posted by Dishman  2004-12-16 4:45:26 PM||   2004-12-16 4:45:26 PM|| Front Page Top

    #41 The only question they have is if we are going to retaliate for an attack on, say, France.

    Are you kidding????

    I'd support a massive tax increase before I'd support U.S. retaliation for an attack on France.
    Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2004-12-16 4:57:38 PM||   2004-12-16 4:57:38 PM|| Front Page Top

    #42 Seems to me to be hot steaming french bovine feces.
    I have seen something similar to this before.
    Clueless euro wanking at it's best.
    Posted by Sock Puppet of Doom 2004-12-16 5:05:18 PM|| [http://www.slhess.com]  2004-12-16 5:05:18 PM|| Front Page Top

    #43 LOL. Thank you Max and Dishman. I was just funning with J. No harmer no foul.
    Posted by Shipman 2004-12-16 5:16:51 PM||   2004-12-16 5:16:51 PM|| Front Page Top

    #44 I so bad!!!!
    Posted by Maxwell Smart Jules 187 2004-12-16 5:26:34 PM||   2004-12-16 5:26:34 PM|| Front Page Top

    #45 The (historically well founded) belief that The Sun rises in the east relies on it. It might not be true.

    So should we be worried??? Great. That's another uncertainty in my already uncertainty-filled life.
    Posted by Rafael 2004-12-16 5:29:05 PM||   2004-12-16 5:29:05 PM|| Front Page Top

    #46 LOL Jules!
    Posted by Shipman 2004-12-16 5:33:16 PM||   2004-12-16 5:33:16 PM|| Front Page Top

    #47 B-a-R - I can think of a lot of things I'd rather do, myself. Plus, since it's practically a fellow Islamic country (give or take 20 yrs), they're pretty safe from attack. ;) But I'm sure if some tool like Kerry was president and bought all that "we're your oldest ally" bullshit, they might get some help.
    Rafael - Somehow, I think they have other targets in mind before America. Israel's probably #1 on their hit parade....it's closer, and they would get lots of support for taking out the "Zionist oppressors" from the UN.
    Posted by Desert Blondie 2004-12-16 5:58:10 PM||   2004-12-16 5:58:10 PM|| Front Page Top

    #48 Should we be worried? I wouldn't say so right now. Ask me again in a thousand years. My intent with that statement was only to demonstrate the scope. Immediacy is another matter.

    It is, however, relevant to discussions of things like "Global Warming", particularly when we're talking about century-plus time frames.

    People generally assume Sol is constant. It is definitely not, and in ways that do affect our daily life, like the weather. One item that I left out of my summary of data is the use of tree rings and other weather related data to analyze historical sunspot activity.

    I seem to have lost my copy of "The Sun in Time", or I'd include some tasty quotes that demonstrate just how significant the deviations are.
    Posted by Dishman  2004-12-16 6:04:25 PM||   2004-12-16 6:04:25 PM|| Front Page Top

    #49 De Bortchgrave is totally wrong as usual. When the alien mothership fires the death ray at America, we will see the end of the evil capitalist animal torturing patriarchal imperialism.

    Vive le France!
    Posted by Spaimble Whomoper3883 2004-12-16 11:14:32 PM||   2004-12-16 11:14:32 PM|| Front Page Top

    23:39 .com
    23:38 2b
    23:37 mom
    23:37 2b
    23:36 .com
    23:34 .com
    23:33 mom
    23:33 2b
    23:33 2b
    23:29 2b
    23:28 Spaimble Whomoper3883
    23:14 Spaimble Whomoper3883
    22:47 Angie Schultz
    22:46 .com
    22:43 2b
    22:39 .com
    22:33 Alaska Paul
    22:32 Alaska Paul
    22:21 2b
    22:17 Alaska Paul
    22:12 SwissTex
    22:03 Alaska Paul
    22:00 Alaska Paul
    21:55 .com









    Paypal:
    Google
    Search WWW Search rantburg.com