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2004-11-02 Home Front: Politix

Ohio: New-Voter Challenges ok after all (23,000+ in play)

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Posted by trailing wife 2004-11-02 5:29:27 AM|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 The polls are unreliable. So is the Dem claim that their new sign-ups will tip the balance oto Kerry. In fact, the Dems traditionally fall on their faces when it comes to turning out the vote. For twenty years we've been hearing that this is truly the big year for Democratic registration and turnout efforts. And yet, every election season, the Republican effort among white evangelicals bests the Dem effort among african-americans, often by as much as 2 to 1.

Despite the MSM's BS about the deep hatred of Bush that lurks in the heart of every American who's not a gun-toting fundamentalist, Republicans since 1980 have been far better organized than Dems and this organizational advantage shows up especially in national elections. It's a very tall hill that the Dems' turnout specialists have to climb.

Ah, my pro-Kerry friends say, this year's different! It's all about BUSH! People really hate him!

Perhaps, but do the numbers add up? We're told that there have been an additional 10 million new registrations this year as compared to 2000.
Now, the target demographic groups for new registrations and increased turnout are, for Dems, 1) african-americans, 2) kids (under 25), and 3) hispanics. For Repubs, the target groups are fundamentalists for the most part and to a lesser extent, certain hispanics disposed favorably toward Republicans (cubans) or the Bush family (variety of hispanics in FL and TX). Rove expects to turn out an additional 3+ million fundamentalists. Perhaps they'll turn out as much as a million or more from other demographics. So assume that 3.5-4 million of the 10 million are solidly pro-Bush.

How many of the remainder will be pro-Kerry? By my calculations, not more than 65-70%, which means best case 4 million for Kerry, leaving an additional 1.5-2 million for Bush (the balance go to Nader).

African-american support for Bush this year will be between 12-19%, as opposed to only 9% in 2000. So assume 85% of the african-american new registrants go for Kerry. Now, it's very unlikely that more than 60% of the newly-registered kids and hispanics will vote for Kerry. Kids today are probably the most pro-war age demographic, and hispanics remain the great mystery group. Neither party has figured them out. So all in all, perhaps 65-70% of the 6 million or so Dem registrants go for Kerry and nearly all the remainder go to Bush. In sum, Bush gets 3.5 + 1.5 = at least 5 million of the 10 million new registrants.

So, as in the 1980s and 1990s, we can expect the Republicans yet again to derive at least as much if not more benefit than the Dems from increased turnout.

Posted by lex 2004-11-02 12:15:17 PM|| 2004-11-02 12:15:17 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 Assuming the independent vote will be split 50/50, the election will turn on which candidate can draw more defections from the other side's registered voters. The best indicator of this is the % of each party's registereds who "strongly support" their guy. For Bush, it's 90% of repubs. For Kerry, it's only 70%. In other words, only 10% of registered, solid Repubs are poachable by Kerry but 30% of registered Dems are poachable by Bush.

These split-ticket voters will determine the margin of victory. Game over. Bush by at 5 points in the popular vote.

Posted by lex 2004-11-02 12:16:22 PM|| 2004-11-02 12:16:22 PM|| Front Page Top

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