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2004-10-25 Home Front: Politix

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Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-10-25 02:38|| || Front Page|| [11130 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 "ALTHOUGH George Bush has reopened a slight lead over John Kerry, the outcome of next week's US presidential election is far from certain. What would Kerry's election as president mean? A dangerous time for the West."

RTWT, as they say.

This article is a rather gentle treatment of a subject that has been bothering me a lot lately: what will happen if Kerry wins?

Foreign leaders have very likely sized Kerry up already: a "Jimmy Carter Lite" whose almost religious belief in the magical powers of toothless, non-confrontational diplomacy will make him an easy mark.

And if Kerry wins, they will also size up the American people: irresolute, easily distracted, fooled and frightened, and having no stomach for a long, hard fight. They will conclude that notwithstanding George Bush's devotion to the cause of the WoT, the American people are tired, are faltering, and have once again talked themselves into failing-- just as they did in Vietnam, and again in Mogadishu.

Foreign leaders will act on these judgements, and we will NOT like what they do: I expect Israel/Iran, NKor/SKor, and China/Taiwan all to blow up very soon after the votes are counted.

Posted by Dave D. 2004-10-25 8:55:03 AM|| 2004-10-25 8:55:03 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Excellent summation, Dave. I only hope some of the idiots who have fallen for the demonization of Bush will read this article - and realize they've been sold a load of tripe. Beyond that, well...

I am almost morbidly curious now, rather disconnected in fact, to see how this insanity plays out at the ballot box. I think, and have long thought, that only (ha - only!) about 1/3 of Americans are idiots, 1/3 are "lazy thinkers" and easily led and fooled, and 1/3 are aware of the world and the consequences.

I am truly curious to see what America is made of, today. Are we dupes? Lazy? Fearful? Just who are we, now?

Posted by .com 2004-10-25 9:03:50 AM|| 2004-10-25 9:03:50 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 i wish the same for the idiots who have fallen for the demonization of Kerry. Nothing much is gonna change after Kerry's elected, with regard to the strategy in the war on terror.. just my two cents

Posted by Lyot 2004-10-25 9:08:02 AM|| 2004-10-25 9:08:02 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Here's two cents change.

Posted by .com 2004-10-25 9:10:58 AM|| 2004-10-25 9:10:58 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 Lyot must be thinking that sKerry hasn't changed much in the Senate for 20 years. The president has to be quick and decisive at times, and flipper is not up to it. Dave D. sums it up best as "Carter Lite".

Posted by Tom 2004-10-25 9:17:57 AM|| 2004-10-25 9:17:57 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 "I am almost morbidly curious now, rather disconnected in fact, to see how this insanity plays out at the ballot box."

Pretty much the same here; whatever will be, will be. And if Kerry wins, we'll just have to deal with it. If life hands you lemons, they say, then make lemonade-- and I've no doubt we will have occasion to make a lot of the stuff.

The best case for a Kerry presidency would be four years of aimless muddle: nothing accomplished, but no disasters. The worst case is... I don't even want to think about it, it's too horrible.

I left out two things from my earlier comment.

One, is what Kerry himself-- and all future American presidents-- will learn from his victory: that the American people no longer have the stomach for a long fight, and that in the event of any future 9/11 style attacks, any president will have, at most, six months to a year in which to complete any response. Any endeavor taking longer than that (such as the kind of nation-building we've been working on in Afghanistan and Iraq) will have unacceptable domestic political consequences.

And the other is what the people of our armed forces will conclude about a Kerry victory, which is that they've been betrayed by a citizenry which has no respect for them or appreciation for what they've achieved or the sacrifices they've made. I cannot think of ANYTHING that would insult our troops more than a Kerry victory, and I shudder to think what will happen to recruitment and retention rates in our armed forces if he wins.

The bottom line of both these factors would be to drastically increase the probability that a future 9/11 style attack would trigger a nuclear response that would annihilate much of the Arab world.

And while some would consider this a "feature", rather than a "bug", I'm not one of them, at least not yet: I don't want my grandchildren asking me, twenty years from now, why the hell we incinerated five hundred million people without first making a genuine effort at reforming their society.

Posted by Dave D. 2004-10-25 9:56:11 AM|| 2004-10-25 9:56:11 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 "i wish the same for the idiots who have fallen for the demonization of Kerry."

I don't see how exposing Kerry's abysimal record and past treasons can be viewed as "demonizing"! Is reveling the truth of an individuals character(or lack thereof) wrong?

If Kerry is viewed in a bad light, he has only himself to blame.

-AR

Posted by Analog Roam 2004-10-25 10:11:08 AM|| 2004-10-25 10:11:08 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 Heavy stuff, Dave - and I have to agree, there are very disturbing consequences - which can be roughly estimated. I would like, every much, to see an authoritative analysis which pulls no punches and does not paint the future with rosy bullshit, covering everything that can be reasonably estimated.

Are you quoting or abstracting from such an analysis - or doing your own extrapolation? Just for the record, I see your points as highly likely consequences - good logical common sense assertions. I presume, with your son involved, you have hardcore inside info regards how the armed forces might see and react to this possibility...

I've said before that I believe it would set us back about a decade, and make us vulnerable to being hit hard as a direct result. I'd love to be wrong.

Since this is, without a doubt, a possibility with HUGE ramifications...

Does anybody have a worthy link covering a broad set of issues from a solid source? Surely this has been war-gamed and dissected somewhere in detail.

Posted by .com 2004-10-25 10:24:50 AM|| 2004-10-25 10:24:50 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 I'll glady "demonize" Kerry -- he's never found enemy propaganda he wouldn't repeat. He's a liar, a thug, and a wanna-be dictator. His campaign has been marked by the complete avoidance of even the servile press and openly threatening those even the least bit critical of him.

He's led his party to an unprecedented (in my lifetime, at least) level of thuggery, deceit, and fraud. His apparent plan to declare victory regardless of the actual vote count, to hand the election's outcome to the courts, is a direct assault on our most basic institutions and on the very concepts that form our nation and society.

No doubt some leftist will whine that this applies to Bush, not Kerry. Well, pull your head out of the warm, smelly place you've been keeping it and take a long, hard look at Kerry's campaign. Compare his handling of the SwiftVets and "Stolen Honor" to Bush's handling of Moore -- which candidate has more respect for free speech?

Posted by Robert Crawford 2004-10-25 10:28:27 AM|| [http://www.kloognome.com/] 2004-10-25 10:28:27 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 "Are you quoting or abstracting from such an analysis - or doing your own extrapolation? Just for the record, I see your points as highly likely consequences - good logical common sense assertions."

This is something I've been doing on my own; though I've seen some "What-if-Kerry-wins?" articles here and there, none of them have gone into much depth and it has seemed to me that there will be MAJOR consequences of a Kerry victory. So I've been noodling on it.

"I presume, with your son involved, you have hardcore inside info regards how the armed forces might see and react to this possibility..."

Some is from him, but most of my certainty on this comes from my own experience in the Army back in the early 70's-- I remember the reaction among the Vietnam veterans I served with when Kerry gave his horseshit "testimony" before the Senate. The only part of that reaction which even comes close to being printable is the epithet, "buddyfucker".

Posted by Dave D. 2004-10-25 10:39:43 AM|| 2004-10-25 10:39:43 AM|| Front Page Top

#11 Dave - Thanks, bro - as I said, your projections strike me as highly likely and that does, indeed, worry me. I've wondered, in my customary unorganized fashion, about this topic and the various areas of impact, but haven't kept notes, damnit. I did, once upon a time, rashly post something completely ad-lib / extemporaneous of my worries along this line to a comment by AC - intemperately, rudely, and stupidly, in fact, but that was way back when. Sigh.

If anyone hits upon more, plz post links. This is some serious shit - I do not currently share bad's (and others') hyper-confidence, though I certainly want it to be true!

And "buddyfucker" fits the Traitor to a T. Thx, Dave!

Posted by .com 2004-10-25 10:54:46 AM|| 2004-10-25 10:54:46 AM|| Front Page Top

#12 "Thx, Dave!"

You're welcome, Bro.

Here are some excerpts from the notes I've been keeping:

HOW WILL JOHN KERRY APPROACH THE WAR AGAINST ISLAMIST TERRORISM?

Abandonment of the policy of pre-emption.

Return to appeasement and compromise as the core elements of our foreign policy.

Return to pre-9/11 concepts of terrorism as a law-enforcement problem rather than a military problem.

Will not initiate military action unless there is overwhelming public support for it.

Expect much greater deference to the UN and other international institutions like the ICC.

Expect superficial, ineffectual, cosmetically appealing expediencies to be preferred over decisive and effective, but painful, action.

Expect much ass-kissing: of the French, of the Arabs, and of the Russians and Chinese.

Expect much domestic ass-kissing of Muslims as a "poor, helpless oppressed minority."

Expect a near-complete abandonment of support for Israel.

Expect a major push to internationalize the rebuilding of Iraq and Afghanistan, with poor results and at great cost to us.

Expect a major shift in focus in the Middle East: from "getting the job done" to "bringing the boys home."

Kerry's base is the hard-core left, and he is unlikely to do anything that will risk alienating them.

Posted by Dave D. 2004-10-25 11:04:01 AM|| 2004-10-25 11:04:01 AM|| Front Page Top

#13 Aw shit. Your collection of observations / predictions rings true... and you have some I missed. Add to it the effect of his "economic proposals" and that looking straight into the camera BS in debate #3 guaranteeing every American a magical healthcare system that will cost them nothing - no new taxes. And there's more on the domestic side which eludes me cuz your list distracts and depresses me!

A decade to recover is optimistic.

Shit.

Posted by .com 2004-10-25 11:16:45 AM|| 2004-10-25 11:16:45 AM|| Front Page Top

#14 Hell, I haven't even begun to think about the domestic-policy side of the whole thing.

The only possible upside to a John Kerry presidency is that he very likely will fuck things up so spectacularly that he will be the last Democrat elected president for for a long, long time. The Dims spent twelve years in the presidential wilderness after Jimmy Carter. After Kerry, it will be at least a half-century.

Posted by Dave D. 2004-10-25 11:23:38 AM|| 2004-10-25 11:23:38 AM|| Front Page Top

#15 re: #8- .com, IMHO, the best link that covers the issues raised here on a macro level is here: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/Archive/digitalarchive.aspx?panes=1&aid=11802019_1

no doubt, this link has been posted here before. but so far, it is one of the best efforts put forth in laying out the case, and consequences, of the WoT that I have seen.

Posted by manhattanite for bush 2004-10-25 12:06:36 PM|| 2004-10-25 12:06:36 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 Cool - thx! I'll open now and see how much (whoa -a very scary thought!) I haven't thought of and taken to its logical conclusion. I may be back to harangue you, if you're trolling, heh. ;-)

And I was just reminded by FoxNews of a HUGE consideration: Chief Justice Rehnquist has thyroid cancer (not life-threatening, they say)... At least 1, prolly 2, Supremes will be appointed by the next Prez - and all of those Phreakin' Phederal Judges. Some of whom seem utterly determined to rewrite pretty much any law or constitutional tenet that strikes their phancy...

Posted by .com 2004-10-25 12:14:38 PM|| 2004-10-25 12:14:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 Remember, guys, the odds are high that both Houses of Congress will remain in Republican hands, which should ameliorate much of a Kerry presidency's initiatives (think of Clinton's health care failure). The real risk is what Kerry does outside our borders, and the reaction of our servicepeople to his venom. And the response of our current real allies and enemies.

I don't see much in the way of new taxes. I do see some spectacular explosions or inexplicable disease clusters. And I agree that Kerry is much more likely than Bush to overreact to such stimulus, in order to prove his manhood. The world may very well end up praying that Bush wins the 2008 election.

Posted by trailing wife 2004-10-25 12:15:38 PM|| 2004-10-25 12:15:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 manhattanite for bush - Kick-ass Norman Podhoretz article - I'm still reading - it's extensive and detailed, as you know!!! THANX! I dunno if it gets to the meat we were discussing, but regardless of that - it has been a fantastic source for the event timeline of Islamic terrorism, thus far.

It's a PDF and you can bet I'll snarf up a copy, happily this one offers the "Save" option (the diskette icon).

Here's the hot link (should open in a new window) for others if they wanna check it out. I recommend that everyone have a copy of this thing, in fact - timelines are everything when fighting against memes and bullshit Demogogue Party Talking Points.

manhattanite for bush -- T H A N X !!!

Posted by .com 2004-10-25 12:54:12 PM|| 2004-10-25 12:54:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 sKerry lost his votefraud battle in Ohio, and things are beginning to look up for the rest of the US. There are still some pockets of utter stupidity, but more than 2/3 of the US - geographically - appears sane. The level of thuggery and outright fraud will HAVE to be dealt with this time - Bush and Ashcroft did nothing last election, and the dumbships came back this time with ten times the try. People need to HANG for this crap. If we, the American People don't hold the entire government's feet to the fire on this, we can consider forming a new government in the sane areas in a few years, for our own protection. Let the damned cities starve if they want us to continue supporting them.

The biggest problem with the dummycritters is that they don't realize all the WARRIORS are on the other side. And yes, I will gladly take up arms against having a traitorous bastard in the White House. There is no way that piece of scum should have ever been nominated, and the Demoncrats have shown their hand in doing so. This was a blatant act of snobbishness - a "we know he's a traitorous scumbag, but we're going to show you we can control any election, any time, and we're going to win, so shove it" moment. It's time to pull the plug on the modern Democratic party, let the few sane democrats form a new party with a new name, and hang the rest. It's either that, or the US will be a banana republic in five years.

Posted by Old Patriot 2004-10-25 1:14:08 PM|| [http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com] 2004-10-25 1:14:08 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 I am almost morbidly curious now, rather disconnected in fact, to see how this insanity plays out at the ballot box.

LOL! PD you thrive on weirdness!

Posted by Shipman 2004-10-25 1:43:38 PM|| 2004-10-25 1:43:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#21 The Democrats have learned nothing from their winter of discontent. As bitter as they were over the perceived wrongs in Florida where the Republicans finally stood up and refused to let them steal the election. (Nixon set a bad precedent in 1960.) It is nothing to what the Republican reaction would be to a Kerry win in November. There have been enough instances of documented attempts at massive vote fraud to thoroughly discredit any Kerry "victory". The Democrats haven't thought through the consequences of their actions. Republicans will not forgive, forget, and fall in line behind "President" Kerry. A Kerry "victory" will rend the fabric of the Republic and lead to civil disobedience on a scale beyond the most fevered dreams of liberal activists. As pointed out above, there will be a general falling away from the military. I ended my military career under Carter and know just how miserable and dangerous a pansy like Kerry will make life for our soldiers, Marines, and airmen. No father wants his son or daughter at risk executing the whims of a person like Kerry and no warrior wants to risk his life in a blue helmet. At home, I don't know how people would react to the freak show that a Kerry "presidency" would bring to Washington, but it wouldn't be pretty. All the Dems want is to be back at the Treasury trough so they, like pirates, can divvy up the booty.

Posted by RWV 2004-10-25 4:03:18 PM|| 2004-10-25 4:03:18 PM|| Front Page Top

#22 Amen, Old Patriot. The Dhimmicrats are arrogant. They don't seek to persuade, they tell everyone how it is going to be. Like the new left in the 60's, they speak in terms of morality (ie "the evil drug companies," "the Benedict Arnold CEO's," "the evil rich," etc.

I hope it is only civil disobedience. If it goes that way, I hope that Pubs refuse to confirm a single judge at any level. Obstruct in every way possible. The Dhims have sowed the wind, let them reap the whirlwind.

Posted by SR71 2004-10-25 4:49:48 PM|| 2004-10-25 4:49:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#23 My 2 cents worth on a Kerry presidency: The stock market will perform poorly for a few more years. Clinton benefitted from the end of the cold war and a massive restructuring of businesses (things which he had nothing to do with). Kerry doesn't have those kinds of things going on. Worse, he seeks to damage one of our most creative technology sectors: pharmaceuticals. This sector could have been a boom sector with the imminent wave of baby boomer retirees. I'm still betting (with big bucks) that drug companies are a great long term play because I'm an optimist. The irony is that a poorly performing stock market will impoverish retirees far more than any govt program will help them, but they seem to be lopsidedly in favor of Kerry.

Posted by V is for Victory 2004-10-25 6:42:49 PM|| 2004-10-25 6:42:49 PM|| Front Page Top

#24 Oh, and did I mention the dividend tax? Kerry wants to raise it. All those "wealthy" retirees who live off of dividends. Bad people. Must be punished.

Posted by V is for Victory 2004-10-25 6:47:54 PM|| 2004-10-25 6:47:54 PM|| Front Page Top

01:38 Sock Puppet of Doom
00:55 Asedwich
00:54 Zenster
00:00 Frank G
23:55 Barbara Skolaut
23:53 Frank G
23:52 Barbara Skolaut
23:51 anymouse
23:50 Frank G
23:48 Frank G
23:46 Barbara Skolaut
23:46 Frank G
23:44 Frank G
23:43 Barbara Skolaut
23:42 Zenster
23:35 Zenster
23:34 anonymous2u
23:30 Cheaderhead
23:29 John in Tokyo
23:22 Frank G
23:21 Frank G
23:20 Zenster
23:16 Zenster
23:13 Fred