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2004-09-03 Home Front: Politix

Convention Bounce! - Boiiiiiinnnnnggggg - Bush +11%

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Posted by BigEd 2004-09-03 4:31:15 PM|| || Front Page|| [11131 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Afterthought - Midnight draculan trips to Ohio union halls look bad, especially when you are angry, incoherent, and slur your speech.

After a few more midnight speeches, John Kerry will consider licensing "action figures".

Posted by BigEd 2004-09-03 4:46:37 PM|| 2004-09-03 4:46:37 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 OK - this is jsut a start.

Consider it a foundation that Bush needs to build upon.

Bush needs to campaign like he already has it won in terms of tone (everyone loves a confident winner), but campaign like he is 2 points behind in terms of intensity and frequency.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-03 5:18:46 PM|| 2004-09-03 5:18:46 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 Want to see why Kerry is worried?

Look at these particular questions - and the dobule-digit gaps, and the huge differences in terms of the leadership questions.

Iraq:
53% trust Bush to handle the situation in Iraq, while 41% trust Kerry.

Terrorism:
57% trust Bush to handle the war on terrorism, while 36% trust Kerry.

Providing strong leadership:
56% said they trust Bush to provide strong leadership in difficult times, while 37% said they trust Kerry to provide leadership in difficult times.

Commanding the Armed Forces:
54% said they trust Bush to be commander-in-chief of the armed forces, while 39% said they trust Kerry.

Terrorism:
Almost two thirds (59%) said they approve of how President Bush is handling the war on terrorism, while 38% disapprove

Was U.S. Right Going to War with Iraq?
Over half of those surveyed (52%) think the U.S. was right in going to war with Iraq, while 41% think the U.S. was wrong to go to war.

And this one - where Bush has been lagging all year long:

The economy:
47% trust President Bush more to handle the economy, while 45% trust Kerry.

These are pretty dire nubmers for Kerry.

And there were NO issues in which Kerry had a double digit lead over Bush, even Health Care, usually a strong advantage for Democrats and Liberals, Kerry had a scant 6 point lead 48-42.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-03 5:29:14 PM|| 2004-09-03 5:29:14 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 Its a decent 3-5 point gain for Bush on many of these issues, moving from right at 50% to well into the mid-upper 50's. but a huge drop for Kerry to the low 40's and even the 30% region.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-03 5:30:53 PM|| 2004-09-03 5:30:53 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 I wouldn't count on this lead lasting. And GWB shouldn't rest on his laurels. The next big events coming up are the debates. There's also the possibility of negative events in Iraq and stateside. It ain't over till it's over.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-09-03 6:46:01 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2004-09-03 6:46:01 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 ZF - As I said, "Letâs not get cocky!"

Posted by BigEd 2004-09-03 7:03:30 PM|| 2004-09-03 7:03:30 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 Amen polls mean little but they are a guage on how things are going. The Republicans had a GREAT convention and you always get a bounce from a performance like that one. Also Kerry falls every time he open his mouth. He could have gained some points by shutting up last night. Seemed like the whiners club in Ohio, but thats what they. Amen Ed about not getting cocking, but they need to keep up the attacks on his record inthe Senate. He can try and spin it, but the fact remains that he voted against just about every major (good) bill in the last 20 years and all the tax cuts.

Posted by Cyber Sarge 2004-09-03 7:24:24 PM|| 2004-09-03 7:24:24 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 Exactly Sarge - Take the poll as an indication of direction and speed of direction, but keep up the pressure.

Also, have some entrepreneur suggeest Kerry can make up some of his campaign debt by following the suggestion in my #1 {he he he}
"MIDNIGHT RALLY KERRY VAMPIRE DOLL"

Posted by BigEd 2004-09-03 7:27:37 PM|| 2004-09-03 7:27:37 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 I think the question here is how the polls would change if Kerry proposed an immediate withdrawal from Iraq. He's been running as a kinder, gentler national security hawk for a while now. What if he starts running as a flat-out dove? Could this help him? Note that Pat Buchanan just came out swinging against the campaign in Iraq. Will this hurt GWB?

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-09-03 7:35:02 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2004-09-03 7:35:02 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 I think a lot of people are sick of the situation in Iraq, including conservatives. The media has portrayed Iraqis as not simply being ungrateful, but hostile as well. The war is being described by the press as a disaster, even though it isn't. I think Kerry has a lot of room to maneuver. The national culture has changed substantially since 1972. When Nixon shellacked McGovern, most of the population was still somewhat attached to notions like patriotism and sacrifice, and WWII veterans were still a significant portion of the electorate. Sentiments are different today, with self-gratification being the dominant theme, and I expect the election results to reflect this change.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-09-03 8:46:42 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2004-09-03 8:46:42 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 Zhang, I suspect your curent residence is in a blue area.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-09-03 8:52:42 PM|| 2004-09-03 8:52:42 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 Dick Morris commented on O'Reilly last night that Bush should get back to running the country & the war until the debates. The convention was so strong in his opinion that Bush should stay away from campaigning until the debates. Let the people see he is back to defending the nation in a vain reminiscent of FDR in 1944.

Posted by Jarhead 2004-09-03 8:54:10 PM|| 2004-09-03 8:54:10 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 NO WAY Jarhead! Bush 41 made that mistake and the press vilified him at every turn fo not talking to the people. Bush 43 should be out front, shaking his fist, and shaking hands for the next two months IN ADDITIION to doing his regular job. Backing off would be a BIG mistake. We have the momentum, push until Kerry is only leading in his home district of Boston. kerry is at the edge of the abyss, Bush should be the person to give him a good shove.

Posted by Cyber Sarge 2004-09-03 9:09:00 PM|| 2004-09-03 9:09:00 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 Jarhead: Dick Morris commented on O'Reilly last night that Bush should get back to running the country & the war until the debates. The convention was so strong in his opinion that Bush should stay away from campaigning until the debates. Let the people see he is back to defending the nation in a vain reminiscent of FDR in 1944.

I doubt this would work - in WWII, the US was involved in multiple theaters, in addition to shipping huge amounts of supplies to all and sundry (Soviets, Chinese, Brits, Australians, New Zealanders, et al). In Iraq, we're engaged in a desultory guerrilla war where the guerrillas can't even work up the motivation to directly attack our base camps.

Bottom line - I wouldn't start counting those electoral votes yet. Eight weeks is a long time in politics. I think GWB will win, but it will be far narrower than this poll's results. Democrats always have the advantage of being able to offer tangible freebies to their followers with our money. Just a fact of life.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-09-03 9:14:38 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2004-09-03 9:14:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 Dick Morris always talks a big game, but his predictions are about as accurate as weather predictions were 15 years ago.

Posted by B 2004-09-03 9:27:04 PM|| 2004-09-03 9:27:04 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 they're flailing at DU . . . pick a thread.

implosion

Posted by spiffo 2004-09-03 9:33:23 PM|| 2004-09-03 9:33:23 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 I would like to see Bush come to Indiana and stump with the GOP candidate to unseat Evan Bayh. I do not even know his name, but he appeared briefly at the convention and appeared to be a well-spoken black man with resonable ideas. Agressively going after senate seats will threaten the Democratic Party in a way that will require a response. We are now in the window where at least the unions have to shut-up. Also, if Bush attempts to drive the enemy from the field in a rout, he is more likely to force the enemy to use whatever dirt they are saving for the weekend before the election - remember the DUI scam.

Posted by Super Hose 2004-09-03 10:12:59 PM|| 2004-09-03 10:12:59 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 Spiffo:

Don't play with that. You don't know where it's been...

Posted by mojo 2004-09-03 10:22:09 PM|| 2004-09-03 10:22:09 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 Pat Buchannon is a turd trying to jump into the punch bowl to get attention.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-03 11:33:54 PM|| 2004-09-03 11:33:54 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 Jarhead, I'm with Cyber Sarge on this one. The one REALLY big difference between the FDR '44 situation and GWB '04 is the fact that the entire media is actively trying to undermine both the war effort and G-Dub's chances of getting reelected. If Bush lets up for even a minute - either on the war OR the campaign - the media will use him like the only woman on a pirate ship (credit to the late, great Sam Kinison for that last line).

Posted by Ricky bin Ricardo (Abu Babaloo) 2004-09-04 1:13:09 AM|| 2004-09-04 1:13:09 AM|| Front Page Top

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