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2004-08-31 Iraq-Jordan
Zarqawi running Fallujah and Ramadi?
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Posted by Dan Darling 2004-08-31 1:12:09 AM|| || Front Page|| [11132 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 This is an interesting article for several reasons, I guess. Three leap out at me:

1. A Pet Peeve. It's odd to read that, because there is action in Najaf, the press reports seem to presume that there can't be action somewhere else, occurring simultaneously and on whatever scale is desired. It's not like the US forces run from one place to the next. That's what the reporters do, not the military. There are forces in positions all over the country, each perfectly capable of executing operations regardless of what is happening elsewhere. If there is anything to this odd media myopia, it would be a command failure in Baghdad - and not necessarily having anything to do with the Military at all. Certainly the troops in any given location can do their jobs independently of other locations. There were certainly quite a few airstikes in Fallujah during the Najaf operation. Someone tell the press that they are not qualified to write about military affairs. Period.

2. Something this article got right: It was to the mortification of the Marines in Fallujah that their operation there was called off. Something I believe it got very very wrong: that victory could only be achieved by flattening Fallujah and ar Ramadi. Those of us who were here on RB at the time, and reading everything being linked to, in particular Belmont Club, know that they had backed the bad guys into an area of about 1/4th of the city - the NW corner - with the Euphrates river to their right and the railway to their backs - facing the Marine lines which had penetrated most of the city - and had the "Fallujah Brigade" mostly pulling patrols in the remainder behind the lines with few incidents. The push and confinement occurred in a relatively short time - less than a week - and that was accomplished under a very strict ROE -so "sensitive" was this opn. It was when the higher-ups, probably Ba'athist symps in Baghdad, got to the "Iraqi leaders" who then lost their nerve was the notion of city-wide anihilation trotted out as a justification for a political approach. Total bullshit. They had concentrated the bad guyz into a target-rich and remarkably small area - with fewer civilian casualties than anyone familiar with war had a right to expect. Only the Bad Guy symps and press would've characterized it otherwise. The asshats and the fuckwits. A marriage made in Paradise, methinks.

3. The assertion in this story that Fallujah and Ramadi "are now controlled by fundamentalist militias, with U.S. troops confined mainly to heavily protected forts on the desert's edge. What little influence the Americans have is asserted through wary forays in armored vehicles, and by laser-guided bombs that obliterate enemy refuges identified by scouts who penetrate militant ranks." Choosing between believing this IHT reporter - or the on the scene reporting of Dave from The Green Side, well, I'll take Dave's version as being far more honest and accurate.

In both Najaf and Fallujah, as elsewhere, the way to tell if you're doing it right is when the other side starts scrambling for a hudna or a political intevention. If you hear it, then don't stop - redouble your efforts, for you are truly putting the hurt on them.

If the "Fallujah Brigade" is in tatters now, that comes as no surprise since it was a hair-brained confabulation from the start - and a mere Trojan Horse for getting the Marines to back off.

Only a press moron could believe that if they wanted to take Fallujah and Ramadi, with or without the kid gloves, they could do so -- and do it with ease within a month -- without leveling the cities. This is based upon the reality we saw in April, not the banter at a bar in the Green Zone. Personally, I believe that leveling cities in the Sunni Triangle is precisely what is needed if there is ever to be a successful pacification of Anbar Province - and if there are ever to be open and free elections. We'll see if the leadership has the stones for it. Yet.
Posted by .com 2004-08-31 3:00:39 AM||   2004-08-31 3:00:39 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Thanks for the link to The Green Side, .com. Some very interesting stuff there, not least of which is the sense of the absolute depravity of the enemy our people are facing there. And these are the same people who want to rule the ME and project their psychopathic cruelty to the rest of the world. Now would be the time to end this situation once and for all, while Sadr is back on his heels.
Posted by virginian 2004-08-31 7:18:41 AM||   2004-08-31 7:18:41 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Welcome, bro. TGS is one of the best mil blogs around. I wish he had the time / inclination to write more often (or have more of them put up on the site - whichever it is), but when they post one, it's always worth reading and usually completely debunks what we've been reading from the pablum press. Glad you found it as worthwhile as I do!
Posted by .com 2004-08-31 7:35:27 AM||   2004-08-31 7:35:27 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Another thought: If you want to talk about a true revolution in military affairs, look at the kill ratios we have been achieving in the latest urban combat operations. We need to exploit our current advantage in this type of warfare before the enemy adapts to it.
Posted by virginian 2004-08-31 8:23:22 AM||   2004-08-31 8:23:22 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 I admit I don't know the numbers, but suspect they are magnitudes better that the 10:1 that was prevalent up until Gulf War I. It's clear that the US forces, and I assume it's true for the UK forces (e.g. the bayonet attack by the Scots, heh) as well that it's lopsided. Have you got the stats?
Posted by .com 2004-08-31 8:28:55 AM||   2004-08-31 8:28:55 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 As I've heard it, the Islamist presence was strong even during the Saddam regime. I presume most of the locals don't like being controlled by Islamist thugs-- similar to the situation in Afghanistatan.

There is no good solution now. The best not-bad solution is a fairly effective cordon around these cities. However, to really make it an effective cordon administratively, it requires the new Iraqi govt. to admit the reality of the situation and since Allawi was instrumental in creating the Fallujah brigage, that will require some soul searching on his part.



Posted by mhw 2004-08-31 8:46:54 AM||   2004-08-31 8:46:54 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 I don't have any official numbers, basing it mainly on reports of hundreds of Sadr militia killed. I suspect the number is actually into 4 figures, as it was in the first battle with Sadr.
Posted by virginian 2004-08-31 9:26:34 AM||   2004-08-31 9:26:34 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 The arab culture, and hence its military, is a top-down system infected by class structure, secrecy and paranoia, pride, and a lack of coordination on all levels, that discourages any semblence of individual freedom or initiative.

Some examples:

When introducing a new weapons system to a group of hand-picked trainees, a process that took three weeks of classroom and field firing of the weapon; we learned that once the “trained” soldier returned to his tribal unit, the “head man” immediately took control of the weapon…as was his due as their leader. On deploying the weapon for the first time, the headman acquired the target, fired the weapon (from inside a cave) and killed himself and numerous others as the back blast ignited a stockpile of ammo to his rear.

On another occasion: The officer in charge of a security point was directed to stop and inspect every fourth vehicle that passed in front of his check point. After observing numerous vehicles, upon seeing the checkpoint, turn off the hard top onto the sand, drive around building and then back onto the road several hundred meters beyond the barrier, we asked why this was allowed. The answer from the young officer was that his orders were to stop vehicles that “passed in front of his checkpoint, not behind it”.

Unlike Western military formations that foster a strong non-commissioned officer corps, arab armies tend to be masses of troops dependent on an officer corps of questionable ability. Cut off the head (literally) and the arab troops melt away over the dunes.

This is not to say that small elite units do not exist, but they are the exception, not the norm. But that’s another story, for another day.
Posted by RN  2004-08-31 10:17:19 AM||   2004-08-31 10:17:19 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 my sense is that Allawi has to go back and forth between attacking sadr and attacking the baathist/wahabi insurgency for political more than for military reasons. Ditto wrt to truce and amnesty offerings. Allawi is a Shiite, but also an ex-Baathist with ties in the military. Ideally this is the best of both worlds - someone who can command respect from Shiites while assuring Sunnis he will protect their LEGITIMATE interests. OTOH there is the risk he will be seen 1. by the shiites as another Baathist type dictator, preserving Sunni dominance or 2. By the Sunnis (including the Kurds) as a representive of Shia interests, a stalking horse for Sistani or worse. All is balance.

How this plays out from day to day Im not sure, i dont trust the real time MSM, and I think their are disadvantatges to all the other real time open source info as well.

But I will say that dot coms post is very interesting and makes some very good points.
Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-08-31 10:21:54 AM||   2004-08-31 10:21:54 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 The answer from the young officer was that his orders were to stop vehicles that “passed in front of his checkpoint, not behind it”.

Sounds like the guy would make a great lawyer.
Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2004-08-31 10:44:16 AM||   2004-08-31 10:44:16 AM|| Front Page Top

#11 thanks for the link dot com, it has gotten me to rething the Fallujah problem.
Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-08-31 11:26:46 AM||   2004-08-31 11:26:46 AM|| Front Page Top

#12 The International Herald Tribune owned by the New York Times. What would you expect from these guys, but relentless moronic editorial comment dressed up as news stories?
Posted by Zhang Fei  2004-08-31 5:17:06 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com]  2004-08-31 5:17:06 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 I don't think that John Burns qualifies as a moron...
Posted by markb 2004-08-31 8:08:17 PM||   2004-08-31 8:08:17 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 "Only a press moron could believe..."
So you object to this?

That's so sweet. So he's what?

IQ.......Term
---......--------------------
<20......idiot
.20-50...imbecile
.50-70...moron
.70-79...bordeline
.80-89...dull normal
.90-109..normal
110-119..bright normal
120-129..superior
>130.....very superior

It's not very bright to have a woodie for a reporter. Sometimes there are articles published under their names in which "they" say rather stupid things, just like everyone else, and deserve no immunity. In this case, "Burns" has missed some important points, posited some sweeping generalities which fly in the face of both reason and experience, and, generally, toed the editorial agenda. The sum is a twisted and inaccurate view of the situation - deserving of some level of derision and mockery. You want to blame the editors at IHT? Fine. Burns' name is on the piece - and the piece is seriously flawed.

HAND.
Posted by .com 2004-08-31 8:31:04 PM||   2004-08-31 8:31:04 PM|| Front Page Top

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