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2004-04-21 Iraq-Jordan

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Posted by Michael 2004-04-21 6:07:31 AM|| || Front Page|| [2 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 don't think we would ever do it, partioning would require other nations recognizing them as countries in their own right, you know they won't unless there in un approval, and you know that won't happen unless the un gets to run(screw up) the show.. and we arn;t gunna let that happen.. sides haveing a friendly regional power house other than isreal could be handy

Posted by dcreeper 2004-04-21 12:00:36 PM|| 2004-04-21 12:00:36 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 More importantly to the WOT, partitioning makes all too easy for the regional powers of Syria and Iran to play each region against the other and dominate the game themselves.

If Iraq is partitioned, whether in 3 or in 25 regions, the future of the Iraqis will be decided in an arrangement between Damascus and Tehran, not by the actual residents of these regions as the article suggests.

Posted by Aris Katsaris 2004-04-21 1:48:44 PM|| 2004-04-21 1:48:44 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 Heh. The world isn't static.

Why would anyone think Tehran or Damascus will be "tomorrow" what they are today?

Some scenarios for consideration. I've already considered them at length, so I'm not debating, just tossing out some fuel for anyone who wishes to make some fire with it. Have fun.

A. Does anyone here actually believe the Mad Mullahs will still be around pulling strings and funding Hizbollah and Hamas a year or 18 months from now?

A1. I suggest that, whenever the tea leaves indicate that a Black Hat nuke / missile pkg is imminent, that at the very least, they will find themselves with several piles of rubble where their nuke dick-extention facilities used to be.

A2. OR a coordinated decap strike against the Mullahs, Rev Guard, and Guardian Council and popular revolution where the Iranians take this golden opportunity to take back their country - mullahcracy to true republic in short order.

B. Baby Asshat is a puppet of the Mad Mullahs. After some action against his Masters occurs:

B1. Baby Asshat will go very very quiet and try to get off the radar screen - fast.

B2. The chinless child will get a bullet in the head and SyrLeb will be far too busy with internal power struggles for foreign intrigue.

I suggest that pair of events would go some way toward changing the stated dismal scenario.

Odds? I would guess the probabilities of each as:
A1 = 100%
A2 = 75%

If A1 occurs then
B1 = 80%
B2 = 20%

If A2 occurs then
B1 = 20%
B2 = 80%

Note: A1 means no revolution and overthrow, just the castration of the Mad Mullahs' Mad Dreams. This will make Scenario C necessary.

C. In this case I predict a "Phase II" - the Mullahs will go absolutely apeshit and abandon any pretense that they are not supporting Iraqi insurrection - in effect, they will be declaring war against the coalition... thus, after some time period and much posturing and invective and as this becomes obvious to even the most willfully stupid morons, the shit will hit the fan:

C1. either they get very smart very fast and learn to STFU and accept their diminished status; low-grade insurrection continues; C is repeated until C2 becomes the obviously correct choice.

C2. See A2 - concludes Phase II

Odds on each C cycle:
C1 = 50%
C2 = 50%

Lol! That was fun.

Posted by .com 2004-04-21 3:05:32 PM|| 2004-04-21 3:05:32 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 Dividing Iraq has some advantages and I think it should be considered as a last option. If Iraq goes to hell the US moves in to support Kurdistan and promotes the Kurds in Iran and Syria to rise up (and then we support them). From that point on we play defensive.

The Syrians and Iranians can't just sit back and allow hunks of their nations to go independant so they'll have to try something. I don't think they'll get any help from the Kurds as they've been getting from the Sunnis and Shia. They will be slaughtered.

The only kink in the plan is Turkey and I think a treaty stating that the Kurds give up all claims to land in Turkey for perpetuity and active promotion of Kurd immigration from Turkey into Kurdistan might be enough to convince the Turks to play ball. After all it could solve their problem and give them a secure border.

Posted by ruprecht 2004-04-21 3:59:59 PM|| 2004-04-21 3:59:59 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 Unless the Iraqi's can get their act together soon, I think we will be forced to divide them or accept failure re: our attempts to establish democracy in the ME. We didn't go over there to form another Iran. Bottom line, if they can't grasp the idea of representative democracy rather than majority rules, then carve them up.
JMHO.

Posted by thinkitthrough 2004-04-21 8:38:34 PM|| 2004-04-21 8:38:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Well stated, Ruprecht.

Posted by Mike Sylwester 2004-04-21 11:46:45 PM|| 2004-04-21 11:46:45 PM|| Front Page Top

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