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2019-11-15 Home Front: Politix

Trump Just Made His Case For Reelection, While Dems Play Impeachment

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Posted by Fred 2019-11-15 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11124 views ] Top

#1 It will come down to Number 3.

Posted by European Conservative 2019-11-15 01:03|| 2019-11-15 01:03|| Front Page Top

#2 #3 is way easier to affirm now than when Reagan asked the same question going into 1984.

Posted by Raj 2019-11-15 01:09|| 2019-11-15 01:09|| Front Page Top

#3 The best predictive model is Political Scientist Allan Lichtman's "13 Keys," a diagnostic model that poses 13 true-false propositions, of which any 6, if True for the party that occupies the presidency, will predict that that party retain its hold. This is the most successful predictive model that I'm aware of, and Lichtman was the only forecaster or political scientist to predict Trump's victory in 2016.

He predicts Trump will win in 2020 as well.

Here's how: If the incumbent is running, then any SIX of these "keys," if True, will predict re-election. Fully EIGHT of these, below, are definitely True. This is why Prof. Lichtman, a liberal Democrat, is comfortable predicting, even at this early stage, that Trump will win in 2020-- the TRUE keys are in boldface:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. .

Posted by Lex 2019-11-15 01:20|| 2019-11-15 01:20|| Front Page Top

#4 I thoroughly enjoy reading your analysis Lex.

Posted by Besoeker 2019-11-15 01:26|| 2019-11-15 01:26|| Front Page Top

#5 9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

We believe that, On the other side they’re convinced that even when President Trump breathes in or breathes out he is committing a scandal of some sort.

Posted by trailing wife 2019-11-15 01:27|| 2019-11-15 01:27|| Front Page Top

#6 Praise goes to the Prof. Funny how a diagnostic model that uses lots of prior knowledge and common sense outperforms all the statisticians' polling-based models.

Maybe the polls are BS. Maybe "social science" isn't, ah, scientific.

Posted by Lex 2019-11-15 01:32|| 2019-11-15 01:32|| Front Page Top

#7 13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. .

Come on, man - Liz Warren's loveable - cuddly as a teddy bear!

Posted by Raj 2019-11-15 01:34|| 2019-11-15 01:34|| Front Page Top

#8 #5 tw - note that I didn't even score this one (#9, Scandal) for Trump. I actually conceded it to the Dems, given that half the country's been brainwashed by their idiocy on this point, and I recognize that perception = reality for the purpose of rigorous, honest analysis.

Even conceding this point, Trump STILL has 8 total "keys" ie he could give up even two of them and still be predicted to win per Prof. Lichtman's model.

That's a pretty damned strong position to be in.

Posted by Lex 2019-11-15 01:35|| 2019-11-15 01:35|| Front Page Top

#9 Marianne Williamson's kinda charismatic.
Or Kismet-ic, or Wiccan or something....

Posted by Lex 2019-11-15 01:43|| 2019-11-15 01:43|| Front Page Top

#10 The best predictive model is Political Scientist Allan Lichtman's...

Man, it really sucked when John McClane tossed him from the 33rd floor of the Nakatomi building.

Posted by Raj 2019-11-15 01:56|| 2019-11-15 01:56|| Front Page Top

#11 Lex, isn't 11 true too ?

Posted by Dron66046 2019-11-15 07:26|| 2019-11-15 07:26|| Front Page Top

#12 What about #7? Doesn't all the regulation reversal count? Not to mention the SC justices, Trump has changed a lot of national policy in ways that his supporters wanted.

Posted by AlanC 2019-11-15 08:27|| 2019-11-15 08:27|| Front Page Top

#13 Lichtman system predicts the popular vote, not the winner, Hillary won the popular vote, so he was wrong in 2016.

In his model Lex #8 a scandal is something that both sides have to say is a scandal eg perjury by Clinton,

To get #11, Dron66046 you need a beauty, like Bush 1 in the Gulf War.

To get #7, AlanC you need something that almost every American feels.

Posted by BernardZ 2019-11-15 09:50|| 2019-11-15 09:50|| Front Page Top

#14 All valid objections but eppur si muovo: hisxtrack revord's better than anyone's. He got 2016 right when all the polling-based models were predicting Hillary would trounce her opponent.

I'm with Lichtman. Assuming Trump and his team have a solid ground game in nonurban Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida, Trump has to be favored.

The polls are BS. They understate the man's support among likely voters by at least 7 points.

Posted by Lex 2019-11-15 10:52|| 2019-11-15 10:52|| Front Page Top

#15 He, probably, also won the popular vote - if you discard the votes of undocumented- and unbreathing Americans.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2019-11-15 11:09|| 2019-11-15 11:09|| Front Page Top

#16 By the way, when the New York Times fact-checked Trump’s speech, the only things it found wrong were his boast that the U.S. is winning World Trade Organization cases “for the first time,” and Trump’s odd boast that Ivanka created 14 million jobs.

I'd like to find the Slimes article that mostly fact-checked Trump's claims, but gave up after two searches.

Posted by Bobby 2019-11-15 11:15|| 2019-11-15 11:15|| Front Page Top

#17 By the way, the White House version of the speech -

Remarks by President Trump at the Economic Club of New York

Posted by Bobby 2019-11-15 11:17|| 2019-11-15 11:17|| Front Page Top

23:44 gorb
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