Article

2014-11-02 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by BrerRabbit 2014-11-02 05:56|| || Front Page|| [11128 views ] Top

#1 Forget my moniker for just a second, I think Anon1 has been attempting to enlighten many readers of Rantburg to the consequences of the poor choices, lack of leadership, inaction and in general, malfeasance many organizations/governments have shown in response to 2014 Ebola epidemic.

I have been impressed with Anon1's systematic analytical approach in posting information on Ebola to Rantburg. Unfortunately this "Math Just Is " article will unlikely receive the MSM readership it needs to impress upon the general public the breadth and potential enormity of the problem. The leadership in the USA promotes solutions, which in my opinion, will exacerbate rather than quell the spread of Ebola.

Travel restrictions, quarantines, united coordinated medical programs are not in evidence, leadership is lacking from the traditional leadership in the West. Frankly - Math is knocking at your door, DC, but you are afraid to open it.

P.S. Keep up the good posting Anon1 and BrerRabbit, I for one appreciate it.

Posted by Jiggs the Batty3387 2014-11-02 10:03|| 2014-11-02 10:03|| Front Page Top

#2 Jiggs the Batty3387, you needn't keep the nym Fred's anonymizer machine assigned, if you don't like it. Just click on Pic-a-Nic below the comment box to explore your randomized options, or type into the Your Name box any non-obscene name or nym that you'd prefer.

Posted by trailing wife 2014-11-02 10:56|| 2014-11-02 10:56|| Front Page Top

#3 Amazing how the CDC which is supposed to be the bastion of knowledge on things of the sort as Ebola, have seemingly forgotten Epidemiology 101 with their rank silliness and jaw dropping feats of irrational thought.

I believe the Pakistani Prime Minister would be proud of you.

Posted by Bill Clinton 2014-11-02 12:41|| 2014-11-02 12:41|| Front Page Top

#4 I'll second Jiggs: anon1, you keep at it.

Posted by Steve White 2014-11-02 12:53|| 2014-11-02 12:53|| Front Page Top

#5 Thanks for the offer TW, but I am enjoying this moniker, it fits my overall demeanor today, as I read and comment on the pathetic state of affairs, we have fallen into recently.

Hope and Change - Hope this BS goes away soon, not optimistic it will change, as long as Moochie and Obe are unchallenged by the Legislative Branch, MSM and the Judiciary.

Really, its a very good nym anonymizer Fred has designed and operates here, entertaining, encouraging, and a precognizant aid to my commentary.

I'd say "Ooooh spooky" but Halloween just passed me by...

Posted by Jiggs the Batty3387 2014-11-02 13:06|| 2014-11-02 13:06|| Front Page Top

#6 While I appreciate Anon1's diligence, I am not sure I agree with his numbers. There is something new going on over there that is just emerging. It may be that enough people have stopped moving around that rather than model the whole population as one big group, instead it needs to be set up as many smaller groups. And if so, then the smaller groups will quickly either die or become immune. Without mixing between them, this event is peaking at the moment. With mixing, it will be as Anon1 is calculating. Right now the rate of subgroup mixing is unclear.

Posted by rammer 2014-11-02 14:26|| 2014-11-02 14:26|| Front Page Top

#7 I am not sure I agree with his numbers.

To paraphrase that Conan movie, the greatest thing in life is to find a straight line on a log-scale graph. Short term predictions can be accurate, but woe onto him who extrapolates too far into the future. You end up concluding that after a year, 15 billion people will have died.

One form of disease model divides people up into categories - infected, susceptible, recovered and dead. These populations change over time which makes the math a little more complicated and more interesting.

Posted by SteveS 2014-11-02 15:44|| 2014-11-02 15:44|| Front Page Top

#8 Seconding SteveS. The curve is going to deviate from simple exponential somewhere.

Posted by James 2014-11-02 18:26|| http://idontknowbut.blogspot.com 2014-11-02 18:26|| Front Page Top

#9 The curve is going to deviate from simple exponential somewhere
Sure hope so.

Posted by USN, Ret. 2014-11-02 20:26|| 2014-11-02 20:26|| Front Page Top

22:48 SteveS
22:34 Herb Threamp3807
21:37 Injun Ulomoque8628
20:47 Injun Ulomoque8628
20:39 Pappy
20:35 USN, Ret.
20:33 Pappy
20:28 Pappy
20:26 USN, Ret.
19:57 Old Patriot
19:53 Old Patriot
19:51 Frank G
19:10 Herb Threamp3807
18:38 Ebbomosh Hupemp2664
18:34 swksvolFF
18:26 James
18:12 JohnQC
18:09 JohnQC
18:07 JohnQC
18:01 Ebbomosh Hupemp2664
18:01 Herb Threamp3807
17:59 Rambler in Virginia
17:54 Ebbomosh Hupemp2664
17:32 JohnQC