Article

2004-10-06 China-Japan-Koreas

China could get drawn into war on Korean peninsula

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Posted by Fred 2004-10-06 10:40:06 PM|| || Front Page|| [4 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Like I said, I hope we're 'spitting out' MOABs,JDAMs, and Cruise Missils as fast as we can, out the 'press'. China is hedging that we will want to keep this next war conventional, where all they would need to do is expedite a "Vietnam Style' protraction. I can't see how we could possible win without 'going nuclear', unless somebody eats alot of crow (ie China lets the NORKs go or we cut bait with the South)!

Posted by smn 2004-10-06 1:20:15 AM|| 2004-10-06 1:20:15 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Is that what you military types call a target rich environment?

Posted by trailing wife 2004-10-06 7:20:35 AM|| 2004-10-06 7:20:35 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 I can't see how we could possible win without 'going nuclear', unless somebody eats alot of crow (ie China lets the NORKs go or we cut bait with the South)!

The NKPA, like any military force run by a dictatorship the commanders of which lacks the initiative and drive of US commanders. Well placed strikes on communications and supply nodes, and their heavy guns go silent because NKPA commanders who have no orders will blindly follow the last orders they have, firing off their ammo loads until they run out.

Don't get me wrong: An offensive by the NKPA would be bloody for South Korean civilians in the initial going, but this isn't 1950. In many ways our conventional forces have made advances in logistics, communications and general warfighting, the NKPA simply hasn't made. Modern wars tend to be rapid-paced and lethal, for both sides if both sides field modern armies.

But the NKPA is a 1950s army with 1980s equipment. The initial onslaught will be bad, but in the end the only armies still able to fight won't be North Korea.

Posted by badanov 2004-10-06 7:30:59 AM|| [http://www.rkka.org/title-boris.gif] 2004-10-06 7:30:59 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Does the China-Nork treaty say that China helps out under any circumstance (i.e., if Kimmie busts a move south), or only if the Norks are attacked? I think China is to cagey to let lil' Kim pull them into a war they don't need.

Posted by Spot 2004-10-06 9:18:44 AM|| 2004-10-06 9:18:44 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 I suspect the treaty will say whatever the Chinese want it to say at that point. As Badanov points out, the NorKs won't be able to complain afterward.

Posted by trailing wife 2004-10-06 10:16:17 AM|| 2004-10-06 10:16:17 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 I suspect the treaty will say whatever the Chinese want it to say at that point. As Badanov points out, the NorKs won't be able to complain afterward.

Posted by trailing wife 2004-10-06 10:16:30 AM|| 2004-10-06 10:16:30 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 What may shape up is that to stop Japan, South Korea, and especially Taiwan from building nukes, the Chinese lean on the Norks to stop and disarm. And, the Norks might be so crazy as to blow off China. From this, the most probable scenario is that China would quickly conquer Norkland and install a puppet regime that would be considerably more friendly with everybody. Still authoritarian, it would however be acceptable to both China and the South Koreans, with a really enormous trade route between SK and China, worth trillions of dollars. The US just shrugs off the deal as long as it doesn't interfere with open trade in the region, militarily pulls out of SK entirely, and everybody lives happily ever after for a few weeks.

Posted by Anonymoose 2004-10-06 10:43:59 AM|| 2004-10-06 10:43:59 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 Actually, badanov, the problem is what while the NKPA may not have learned, the PLA most certainly has; that's why every report of them getting more "Americanized" (after the Gulf Wars) really worries me.

Posted by Edward Yee 2004-10-06 11:37:53 AM|| [http://edwardyee.fanworks.net] 2004-10-06 11:37:53 AM|| Front Page Top

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