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2008-10-21 China-Japan-Koreas
China's Growth Slows Unexpectedly in Third Quarter
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Posted by Fred 2008-10-21 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11137 views ]  Top

#1 ION CHINA, WORLD MILITARY FORUM > JAPAN DISCOVERS CHINESE PLAN SURFACE FLEET [3 Missle-armed warships + supply ship] IN TSUGARU STRAIT PASSING INTO THE PACIFIC; + US THINK TANK STUDY [RAND]: US CANNOT STOP CHINA FROM ATTACKING TAIWAN IN 2020; + TOPIX > CHINA REITERATES CLAIM TO DISPUTED ISLAND [South Korea].
Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-10-21 00:53||   2008-10-21 00:53|| Front Page Top

#2 But wait, wasn't China suppose to overtake the US? How can this be? /sarcasm off

The bad news is that faced with the turmoil associated with a recession, central governments usually try to distract the population with 'adventures'. The Taiwanese ought to be more nervous.
Posted by Procopius2k 2008-10-21 07:40||   2008-10-21 07:40|| Front Page Top

#3 Wasn't the Soviet Union supposed to overtake the U.S. in... ummm... 1973, was it? I seem to remember that was the projection... It musta been so, cuz an expert at the Rand Corporation said it.
Posted by Fred 2008-10-21 09:42||   2008-10-21 09:42|| Front Page Top

#4 In all fairness, China's GDP reduced to a mere 9%--which is still 6 ti mes faster than our GDP growth rate. I'd still wait to throw out the assumption that they will overtake us at some point.
Posted by sludge 2008-10-21 14:06||   2008-10-21 14:06|| Front Page Top

#5 At 4% next quarter, it may still be growing 6 times faster, but the political effects will be much more devastating. It is going to be a real challenge for China to traverse this recession without upheaval.

And China will not be overtaking us on GDP/capita for a century at least. Too many demographic issues.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-10-21 14:13||   2008-10-21 14:13|| Front Page Top

#6 I wonder how close that claimed 9% growth is to reality, and whether it takes into account the perilous state of China's financial system? Were China to achieve an America-like standard of living, that would be lovely; they would be able then to invest in significant reduction of the pollution they currently produce, and fewer of their citizens would be harmed by unsafe products.
Posted by trailing wife ">trailing wife  2008-10-21 14:13||   2008-10-21 14:13|| Front Page Top

#7 Their GDP/capita will definitely not match us for a long while. What's more concerning to me is their total GDP--as a sizeable % (perhaps 10%) of China's national budget goes to defense, it won't be long before they can spend more than us on their military, and with their lower R&D costs (cheaper engineers and scientists etc), the difference will get compounded over time.
Posted by sludge 2008-10-21 16:40||   2008-10-21 16:40|| Front Page Top

#8 If I hadn't heard it all before about Russia and Japan, I'd be pretty concerned. There's no doubt China can make a lot of mischief, but there is no more chance it is going to challenge us as global hegemon than that we will invade and conquer it. That's not to say we should ignore the Chinese, but they aren't 10 ft tall, either.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-10-21 16:48||   2008-10-21 16:48|| Front Page Top

#9 Hope you are right. China does have serious advantages over Russia and Japan in terms of natural resources, population, and sustainability, so I am not so certain.

Similar for India. They are less likely to be a military threat, but I can see them being a major economic adversary in the future.
Posted by sludge 2008-10-21 17:14||   2008-10-21 17:14|| Front Page Top

#10 Part of Russian and Japanese declines can be attributed to their inability to maintain population levels and a sustainable population pyramid. In Japan's case especially, their population structure does not look anywhere like a pyramid. (i.e. Too small of a working age population supporting a large retired population). And it's only getting worse--with fewer taxes that can be collected from the population. That's why they can't afford anything. China is in a completely different boat.
Posted by sludge 2008-10-21 17:20||   2008-10-21 17:20|| Front Page Top

#11 Sort of, sludge. As long as all those young men don't mind marrying non-Chinese women - seeing as to how China's one-child policy and the way third-world countries value princes boys over icky servant girls, they don't have nearly enough young women to make the next generation.

Should be interesting watching their short-sighted policies come home to roost.
Posted by Barbara Skolaut">Barbara Skolaut  2008-10-21 19:23|| http://ariellestjohndesigns.com/]">[http://ariellestjohndesigns.com/]  2008-10-21 19:23|| Front Page Top

#12 IIRC there's a good supply of available ladies in the Philippines. The problem for the Chinese is that they consider themselves culturally superior and 'outsiders', particularly less well off, as inferior 'stock'.

[Consider that as compared to the 'racist' Americans who'll adopt children of any color, race, or creed, or our young men in uniform who will also marry any color, race, or creed.]
Posted by Procopius2k 2008-10-21 19:52||   2008-10-21 19:52|| Front Page Top

#13 "The problem for the Chinese is that they consider themselves culturally superior and 'outsiders', particularly less well off, as inferior 'stock'."

Yes, P2K - but I wasn't going to mention that....
Posted by Barbara Skolaut">Barbara Skolaut  2008-10-21 20:06|| http://ariellestjohndesigns.com/]">[http://ariellestjohndesigns.com/]  2008-10-21 20:06|| Front Page Top

#14 According to the Marxist Gerard Horne "China’s economic engagement with Africa is breathtaking"
Posted by tipper 2008-10-21 21:07||   2008-10-21 21:07|| Front Page Top

#15 Also note that in 2025 the average Chinese age will be higher than the American. They are getting older faster than they are getting richer. They are going to lose the race, at least in the medium run. In the long run, we're all dead.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-10-21 21:11||   2008-10-21 21:11|| Front Page Top

#16 I was going over the population pyramids. You guys are more or less right about China. India, on the other hand, seems to be capable of keeping their growth intact for a lot longer. India overtaking us at some point doesn't seem as scary a prospect tho.
Posted by sludge 2008-10-21 21:34||   2008-10-21 21:34|| Front Page Top

#17 At least they're democratic
Posted by sludge 2008-10-21 21:35||   2008-10-21 21:35|| Front Page Top

#18 My observation of the One Child policy is that it is not such a big deal, at least in the south, the part I'm more familiar with. The policy only applies to urban Hans, rural Han and minorities are exempt.
The majority of new workers in the south (Quandong)are female flooding in from rural areas in the north.
Also children of one child families can have more than one child.
The population growth of China is higher than most European countries (1.7) although lower than the US (2.1)
Posted by tipper 2008-10-21 23:22||   2008-10-21 23:22|| Front Page Top

23:58 Betty
23:36 GK
23:22 tipper
23:19 CrazyFool
23:00 European Conservative
22:48 Classical_Liberal
22:43 Bertie Ebbeaque1285
22:19 Procopius2k
22:14 Chief
22:07 Chief
22:06 Redneck Jim
22:05 3dc
22:05 Barbara Skolaut
22:03 Chemist
21:49 Flinemble Bonaparte8551
21:40 darrylq
21:36 Daffy Phash5086 aka Broadhead6
21:35 sludge
21:34 sludge
21:33 bruce
21:32 Glenmore
21:17 Sgt. Mom
21:11 Nimble Spemble
21:07 tipper









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