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2009-10-20 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Why the CDC says this flu season is 'very sobering'

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Posted by 2009-10-20 08:16|| || Front Page|| [11130 views ] Top

#1 Delays in the H1N1 vaccine, along with shipping the intra-nasal vaccine (inappropriate for priority groups) first were definitely bumps in the road. People are dying and the H1N1 may end up being Obama's Katrina.

Posted by Black Bart Ebberens7700 2009-10-20 10:04|| 2009-10-20 10:04|| Front Page Top

#2 This is weirdness compounded. What started this all is the absolute terror the world medical community has for H5N1 Avian flu, which still shows prospects for being the deadliest plague in human history. So the medical infrastructure around the world has been and still is changing to meet this threat.

Then along comes H1N1 Swine flu, which is an eclectic blend of flu. At first it was seen as being a dress rehearsal for the Avian flu, and even less dangerous than ordinary seasonal flu.

However, it's behaving strangely. For example, it emerged in spring, which is a serious danger sign for a severe flu that reemerges in fall and winter, and can kill three times as many people as a seasonal flu.

Plus, because of the new, intense scrutiny of influenza, we are learning a bunch of unexpected twists and turns to H1N1, its risks and mortality, that we previously had no clue about.

In addition to being much more severe among young children, it also seems to be far more severe among several ethnic groups. It sets up lungs for deadly secondary, mostly staph infections, has been found to cause embolisms (dangerous blood clots), and sometimes it attacks the brain.

Again because of intense scrutiny, treatments for the virus and its common secondary effects, such as acute respiratory distress and secondary infection, are also getting a lot of attention.

The disease is terribly fickle as well. Nurses at the Catholic hospitals in California are on strike because one of them died, and they say the hospitals are not taking proper epidemic precautions. Other hospitals around the country are setting up "parking garage triage", to keep all but critical influenza patients out of the hospital proper.

And always in the background are the near early Cold War Civil Defense-level preparations against H5N1 Avian flu, which continues to slowly expand its range and capabilities, and could have emerged, and could emerge, at any time.

Posted by Anonymoose 2009-10-20 10:09|| 2009-10-20 10:09|| Front Page Top

#3 The stats compare metro areas but another thing unusual about the H1N1 is how hard hit the rural areas are. Nebraska was one of the first states to get the vaccine because the western part of the state was infected in such large numbers, entire schools were closed early on. Reports of this flu targeting the lungs and of many pulmonary embolisms found in autopsied victims and revealed only by high resonance CT scans suggest aggressive non-standard treatment, and tests that may not be available in these areas.

Posted by Lumpy Elmoluck5091 2009-10-20 10:18|| 2009-10-20 10:18|| Front Page Top

#4 In New Mexico, one can buy vaccine at various distribution points. However, one cannot get it through my government related health plan. It was promised in September, then October, and now November.

Another argument for universal governmental control of health.

Posted by Highlander 2009-10-20 11:49|| 2009-10-20 11:49|| Front Page Top

#5 People are dying and the H1N1 may end up being Obama's Katrina.

Snort. MSM will follow O'Bumble's lead and blame it on Bush.

Posted by Woozle Uneter9007 2009-10-20 11:59|| 2009-10-20 11:59|| Front Page Top

#6 , it also seems to be far more severe among several ethnic groups.

It would help greatly if you would name those "Ethnic Groups" this is no time to be afraid of cries of RACIST.

Medicine and illness trumps Squeamishness every time.

Posted by Redneck Jim 2009-10-20 12:53|| 2009-10-20 12:53|| Front Page Top

#7 It would help greatly if you would name those "Ethnic Groups" this is no time to be afraid of cries of RACIST.

Blacks and Hispanics are hospitalized due to H1N1 at a much higher rate than whites. Probably not due to a particular ethnicity, but rather that these groups generally have health problems (diabetes, asthma, etc.) which make them more vulnerable to a virus such as H1N1.

But, trust me, if the libs can find a way to portray this as RACIST, they will.

Posted by Woozle Uneter9007 2009-10-20 13:38|| 2009-10-20 13:38|| Front Page Top

#8 it also seems to be far more severe among several ethnic groups

Perhaps the H1N1 virus itself is a racist pig?

Posted by gorb 2009-10-20 15:42|| 2009-10-20 15:42|| Front Page Top

"Blacks and Hispanics are hospitalized due to H1N1 at a much higher rate than whites. Probably not due to a particular ethnicity, but rather that these groups generally have health problems (diabetes, asthma, etc.) which make them more vulnerable to a virus such as H1N1"

I've also heard that obesity is a factor and the hispanic kids in So Cal are certainly much heavier than caucasian kids, for whatever reason.

Posted by Glutle Henbane7090 2009-10-20 17:46|| 2009-10-20 17:46|| Front Page Top

#10 Oh, and by the way. My daughter was scheduled to get a flu shot tomorrow at her pediatrician's office and I called today to cancel it because she has already been down with some sort of flu-like virus this weekend and is still sick...and the nurse told me she was going to call me anyway because they've had to cancel the flu vaccine clinic because they've already run out of vaccine and they don't expect to be able to get anymore!

Posted by Glutle Henbane7090 2009-10-20 17:53|| 2009-10-20 17:53|| Front Page Top

#11 There was quite a bit of H1N1 in Mat-Su schools in Alaska. M'Lady reported seeing classes of 10 kids in an elementary school. Don't know how many parents kept their kids home. Things are getting back to normal. Best guess is that all the kids at the State Fair in August probably spread the flue like a bomb.

My Medical resident daughter was in the group that treated the kid from Fairbanks (10 year old) that was medivaced down to Anchorage. Other complications worked with the flu to cause the death. It was really tragic.

Very sobering is an understatement.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2009-10-20 19:30|| 2009-10-20 19:30|| Front Page Top

#12 H1N1 will be old news by the time the vaccine arrives in sufficient numbers. The hospital I work at doesn't seem to be concerned enough about to say anything more about it than wash your hands.

Posted by Mike N. 2009-10-20 20:31|| 2009-10-20 20:31|| Front Page Top

#13 Lots of info

Cases among people under 25 are huge compared to seasonal flu.

Hold up on vaccine is due to pandemic occurring in the middle of the production cycle for seasonal flu. Only so many eggs to grow the stuff and so many incubators, beakers, pipes and bricka-brack. Production cycle has built in limits that do not change overnight.

Kids with CP, MD being hit with complications hard. Also kids with asthma, even well controlled asthma.

Pregnant women also at high risk, esp. in third trimester. Lung capacity is affected by baby's size, meaning that they don't operate as well when challenged by an infection.

Obesity may be an issue. It appears clearer in adults than kids.

Based on a range of official fatality rate predictions, US could see 90,000 to 600,000+ deaths. 0.1% to 0.75%

Posted by Chuck Simmins">Chuck Simmins 2009-10-20 20:52|| http://northshorejournal.org]">[http://northshorejournal.org] 2009-10-20 20:52|| Front Page Top

#14 a) There's reason to believe that H1N1, unlike normal seasonal flu, doesn't spread all that virulently through touch. If true, handwashing, while a Good Thing, isn't all that much of a prevention. It seems to spread most quickly through tiny drops of exhalation, i.e. in the air. N95 masks can help and are recommended for medical personnel, but are uncomfortable to wear for long and should not be reused.

b) The seasonal pattern we're seeing parallels that of the 1918 pandemic IIRC.

c) As I've mentioned before, the concern over H1N1 isn't a new fad vs H5N1 - there is a potential connection between them that is a serious concern.

H5N1 is more lethal in its current form than H1N1 but doesn't seem to be transmissable person-to-person, only through the bird populations.

But H1N1 *is* human transmissable and since it is a blend of avian, swine and human viruses, it has the potential to combine with H5N1 with very few mutations. That will quite likely occur if enough people or animals carrying H1N1 meet up with H5N1. The resulting mutated version of avian flu has the potential, if it occurs, to rival the 35-50% death rate of the Black Plague during the middle ages.

So ... what does this have to do with innoculations? If you get sick with the seasonal flu you may be more vulnerable to H1N1.

And slowing the spread of the current H1N1 is important not only to prevent the deaths / expense it brings, but also to prevent it from linking up with H5N1.

The US military is taking this seriously, with commanders at the major commands asking for course of action analysis for scenarios with rather breathtaking assumptions about manpower loss.

Posted by lotp 2009-10-20 20:54|| 2009-10-20 20:54|| Front Page Top

#15 I probably had the H1N1 flu 3 to 4 weeks ago (peak of SH flu season). Several people we have direct or indirect contact with had lab confirmed cases.

One effect was it really suppressed my appetite. I struggled to eat anything for over a week.

Posted by phil_b 2009-10-20 20:57|| 2009-10-20 20:57|| Front Page Top

#16 I got my regular flu shot last month at work.

I'm also continuing to use hand sanitizer after shopping/handling money (which I do anyway - money is filthy and lord knows who/what touched those carts before I did). Not sure what to do about exhalation droplets, since this is the height of the craft show season (other than to stick with my normal aversion to coughing and sniffling people).

Chuck, do you happen to know if hand sanitizer up the nose on a regular basis is of any help?

Posted by Barbara Skolaut">Barbara Skolaut 2009-10-20 21:07|| 2009-10-20 21:07|| Front Page Top

#17 Or lotp, maybe you know?

Posted by Barbara Skolaut">Barbara Skolaut 2009-10-20 21:08|| 2009-10-20 21:08|| Front Page Top

#18 I'm waiting for that multi-nymed anonymous chuckle-head from the Phoenix area to repeat his comment that it's all a money-making operation done "for the children".

Posted by Pappy 2009-10-20 21:15|| 2009-10-20 21:15|| Front Page Top

#19 As far as secondary infections go, the big winner right now is a drug called Avelox.

http://www.rxlist.com/avelox-drug.htm

It is a broad spectrum antibacterial agent that is especially good for bacterial lung infections, even the really nasty ones like MRSA, and several kind that cause pneumonia.

This knocks down one of the more lethal aspects of the flu, bacterial attack when your lungs have been damaged.

Very weird possible side effect though, tendinitis and even tendon rupture, in all ages.

Oh, and back to race for a second. It is not just Hispanics and blacks that are more susceptible to Swine flu. The infection rate of Europe looks like a patchwork quilt, with some white ethnic groups getting nailed, and others not.

This screams "genetics".

Posted by Anonymoose 2009-10-20 21:17|| 2009-10-20 21:17|| Front Page Top

#20 You wanna talk genetics? The billion people of China have suffered 2 deaths due to H1N1. And they had their vaccine out months before anyone else.

Oh, wait. they're communists. Maybe they lie and take shortcuts with people's health.

Naw.

Posted by Chuck Simmins">Chuck Simmins 2009-10-20 21:43|| http://northshorejournal.org]">[http://northshorejournal.org] 2009-10-20 21:43|| Front Page Top

#21 don't get cynical, Chuck, LOL

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2009-10-20 21:58|| 2009-10-20 21:58|| Front Page Top

#22 hey gorb
maybe the prob is that it's a compound virus made at a mexican (off country site)test farm {laboratory} that .. um ... sort of got away ...
hence it hit only certain groups

i read today ? questionable source ..
that H1N1 hit a turkey farm in canada...

hence the bird flu / pig flu combo they originally talked about in mexico.....

Posted by linker 2009-10-20 22:59|| 2009-10-20 22:59|| Front Page Top

#23 Hey Pappy. You call me a chuckle head but perhaps you misread the point of my post. I was not saying that this flu season was not serious. Nor am I against encouraging those who work with the GP to take it if they believe it to be safe and effective.

I was saying that forcing large groups of people to take new and rushed vaccines or lose their job literally opens a Pandora's box that even YOU may not want to open. First of all, the profit incentive is enormous.

Second, though it may seem like a good idea this time, how will you feel when you are forced to take this vaccine: gardasil vaccination for boys I assume you are a male. Need I say more?

This is just the tip of the iceberg. The hype machine will crank up for anything and everything that can be spread through virus or germs and we will all be forced to inject ourselves with every new scare.

Are you really willing to be vaccinated for each and every possible sexually transmitted disease and each and every cold or flu that comes along? IJMHO, but you might want to rethink letting the camel's nose under the tent on what may seem like a very good idea today.

Posted by Jumbo Slinerong5015 2009-10-20 23:44|| 2009-10-20 23:44|| Front Page Top

23:54 Anguper Hupomosing9418
23:44 Jumbo Slinerong5015
23:24 ExtremeModerate
23:15 Jumbo Slinerong5015
23:09 gorb
23:07 gorb
23:04 gorb
23:03 gorb
23:01 gorb
22:59 linker
22:55 USN, Ret.
22:18 Remoteman
22:09 linker
22:08 tipper
21:58 Frank G
21:50 Redneck Jim
21:45 Plastic Snoopy
21:43 Chuck Simmins
21:40 Pappy
21:36 KBK
21:34 Helmuth, Speaking for Grerelet4852
21:31 phil_b
21:30 Helmuth, Speaking for Grerelet4852
21:28 Pappy