Article

2005-10-08 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

Bird flu found in Turkish flocks of turkeys

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Posted by lotp 2005-10-08 16:40|| || Front Page|| [11125 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 The absolute booger about this disease is that we don't know for certain what its animal vectors will be. It's not the animals that are quickly killed that is the problem, but animals that just carry the disease, Typhoid Mary-style, while showing minimal symptoms themselves.

Ironically, the "canary in a coal mine" in this case are ferrets. Ferrets are very close to people as far as their immune systems go, and they also have a penchant for raw bird eggs.

However, domestic animals could be a nightmare if they became a passive vector.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-10-08 17:40|| 2005-10-08 17:40|| Front Page Top

#2 I thought they were called turks?

Posted by Captain America 2005-10-08 18:05|| 2005-10-08 18:05|| Front Page Top

#3 Ferrets? too bad, I thought it was those wicked weasels .

/I lika good vector.

Posted by Mustela 2005-10-08 18:13|| 2005-10-08 18:13|| Front Page Top

#4 Turkish flocks of turkeys

Kinda redundant, ain't it?

Posted by Department of Redundancy Department 2005-10-08 18:15|| 2005-10-08 18:15|| Front Page Top

#5 The issue here is that once again the disease is found in a flock raised for food - i.e. which are raised and handled by people. Suggests this may move fast through Europe now that it's in Turkey and Romainia/the Danube flyway.

Posted by lotp 2005-10-08 18:57|| 2005-10-08 18:57|| Front Page Top

#6 It's like watching a slow motion explosion. I gather Bush called in representatives of all the big pharma companies in what must have been one of the more intense meetings held at the WH in a long time.

I think that Bush has realized that this could amount to 9-11 times a hundred, and he is none too thrilled at the prospect. And you know he is not one to muck around when push comes to shove.

Practically speaking, no one has ever imagined doing something like shutting down all air and naval traffic, or forcing all passengers into quarantine for a week. On top of that, there would be several army divisions deployed to the borders with some very explicit orders.

Meanwhile, big pharma would have an unlimited budget to make unlimited amounts of Tamiflu, despite the Rouche patent, and vaccine. The distribution of which would be an amazing effort.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-10-08 19:49|| 2005-10-08 19:49|| Front Page Top

#7 Good enough, although there is some uncertainty as to the effectiveness of Tamiflu against this virus as/if it mutates to spread through human - to - human contact.

Which will be the tipping point ....

Posted by lotp 2005-10-08 20:04|| 2005-10-08 20:04|| Front Page Top

#8 The issue was not the cost or production of vaccine but the liability for any problems that may result from it. That is why the pharma companies do not make vaccines any more.

Posted by Flolutch Snavirt1471 2005-10-08 21:11|| 2005-10-08 21:11|| Front Page Top

#9 This is waaay beyond liability. Making vaccines requires a large, specialized infrastructure, and is a time consuming and expensive process. It amounts to a gamble of, in this case, several billion dollars to produce a vaccine that might not work.

The damned virus is so prone to mutation that you only have maybe a 6 in 10 chance of making a vaccine that is 100% effective. On top of that, the timing of issuing the vaccine must be good, as it works only from 2 months to a year and a half, depending on the person, whereas the disease may run to as long as two years. This means that a single shot may not be enough for anybody.

The virus could mutate just before it hits the US, like the Swine Flu, or it may mutate after it has arrived, causing localized severe outbreaks. Flus typically also come in two "waves" anyway.

So the bottom line is that we may all have to rely on the administration's ability to gamble.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-10-08 21:28|| 2005-10-08 21:28|| Front Page Top

#10 Moose, there has never been a flu vaccine that was even close to 100% effective. Different studies and groups indicate flu vaccines vary in effectiveness between 0% and 70%.

More severe pandemics like 1918 and 1889 come in 3 or 4 waves, with perhaps weaker 'herald waves'.

I also made this comment in another forum about the risk of migrating birds bringing human transmissable flu to Europe and N. America

Its not just that many people don't understand numerical arguments. I can crunch some numbers and conclude the risk of B2H infection and consequently sustained transmission are at least 3 orders of magnitude higher in SE Asia than in Europe/N. America, and hence the statistical risk of a one time event (sustained transmission) occuring in Europe/NA are vanishingly small. Human transmissable H5N1 will arrive in a 747, not in migrating birds.

Posted by phil_b 2005-10-08 22:03|| 2005-10-08 22:03|| Front Page Top

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