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2004-09-24 Home Front: Politix

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Posted by BigEd 2004-09-24 13:37|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 A two-point skip isn't a wild swing, that's a Bush-favorable day of sampling dropping out, and a Kerry-favorable day of sampling coming into the three-day average. If you've been following the Rasmussen, it tends to have weekly cycles of about two to three points. For a while, those tended to peak for first Kerry, then Bush, on days with weekend samples in the average, and there were various theories about first Democrats not going to Church on Sunday, then Republicans not going out Friday and Saturday nights. It seems mostly bunk - randomly chosen samples of significantly small size will produce pseudo-patterns of no evaluable significance in the short term.

Posted by Mitch H. 2004-09-24 3:02:50 PM|| [http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/] 2004-09-24 3:02:50 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 Most of the polls are BS. The election will be decided in the last 48 hours of the campaign. If gasoline prices don't spike by 25% or more in October then the election will be a contest between battle fatigue/latent isolationism and fear of another 911/determination to finish the job. If Kerry were clever he could pull it out, but one should never (mis)understimate the Dems' incompetence in presidential election campaigning.

Posted by lex 2004-09-24 3:07:42 PM|| 2004-09-24 3:07:42 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 nah, clinton was a competent campaigner. But maybe the exception to the rule.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-09-24 3:09:58 PM|| 2004-09-24 3:09:58 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 No Shrum. Also, I think Dick Morris was on board in 1992.

Posted by lex 2004-09-24 3:27:47 PM|| 2004-09-24 3:27:47 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 no, morris came on after hillarycare died. He was on for '96.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-09-24 3:35:22 PM|| 2004-09-24 3:35:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Rassmussen is rumored to use "data normalization" - that is, he takes polls of republicans, poills of democrats, and polls of independants, then applies them to create an overall poll that is distributed in the same percentage (Dem, Rep, Ind) as shown by the exit polls in 2000.

This methodology guarantees results that match 2000.

THey do not account for independant moves toward Bush, the 9/11 increase in Republican party identification, nor in increased Republican registration and turnout as compared to 2000.

SO Rasmussen shoudl be taken with a large grain of salt, and used only as part of several different polls in order to get a picture of where the electorate stands.

Also - the national "Bush v. Kerry" is meaningless - its the state polls that count.

Kerry can carry NY and California by 7 million each, and win the "popualr vote" going away, but if Bush manages to win Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florid by 100K each, Bush wins the election in electoral votes.

Democrat bloc votes in California and NY distort the national poll (for Kerry) as does Texas (for Bush).

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-24 9:38:22 PM|| 2004-09-24 9:38:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 OldSpook: you might want to check out the web site electionprojection.com

Posted by Phil Fraering 2004-09-24 10:29:27 PM|| [http://newsfromthefridge.typepad.com] 2004-09-24 10:29:27 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 How do past successes of polls count? Rasmussen totally missed 2002.... but still, my $0.02 feels that "silent majority" that Reagan sensed, is now again very present.

Posted by Sherry 2004-09-24 11:24:52 PM|| 2004-09-24 11:24:52 PM|| Front Page Top

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