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2004-09-27 Afghanistan/South Asia
Report: Zawahiri nabbed in Pakistan?
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Posted by oldowan 2004-09-27 12:50|| || Front Page|| [11129 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 I'll believe it when I see his head on a pike.
Posted by Spot  2004-09-27 1:08:28 PM||   2004-09-27 1:08:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 Old Spook, pls enlighten:

Why would they announce it as soon as they've caught him, thereby tipping off any cells he's operationally connected to?

If we has been caught, surely it would have happened months ago, right?
Posted by lex 2004-09-27 1:11:24 PM||   2004-09-27 1:11:24 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 I guess this is better than the last time, when they had him surrounded and were "really, really certain" that they could catch him. But I'm not taking the wine out of the box yet.
Posted by BH 2004-09-27 1:16:17 PM||   2004-09-27 1:16:17 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 I saw this on Allahpundit this morning. It's possible but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
Posted by Secret Master 2004-09-27 1:22:38 PM||   2004-09-27 1:22:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 5-1 against. I hope to lose money.
Posted by Shipman 2004-09-27 1:25:43 PM||   2004-09-27 1:25:43 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 But he would look nice in a dangling cage during the first TV debate, right?
Posted by True German Ally 2004-09-27 1:27:48 PM||   2004-09-27 1:27:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 That would be a thing of beauty...we could even be nice and give John Kerry some spitballs!
Posted by Seafarious  2004-09-27 1:30:48 PM||   2004-09-27 1:30:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 24 hour rule.
Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-09-27 1:32:54 PM||   2004-09-27 1:32:54 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Paki officials, via Reuters: "it ain't true."
Posted by PlanetDan  2004-09-27 1:34:37 PM||   2004-09-27 1:34:37 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 damn
Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-09-27 1:37:38 PM||   2004-09-27 1:37:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 That's why no screamer, no Fat Lady.

Damn.
Posted by Fred  2004-09-27 1:41:52 PM||   2004-09-27 1:41:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 These reports come out to keep the AQ cells jumpy as well as to vex rb'ers.
Posted by Howard UK 2004-09-27 2:30:48 PM||   2004-09-27 2:30:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 I've learned to keep my ululator in its case until we get the Magic Three Independent Sources of Verification Form presented to Fred for his scrutiny and signature. That way I don't have to clean it up and recoat it with cosmolene.
Posted by Alaska Paul 2004-09-27 2:42:49 PM||   2004-09-27 2:42:49 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 Democrats on standby too, warming up "I question the timing" meme...
Ter-RAY-sa is allready piping that horn. And of course the Dimocrats would want us to release him again until after the election......
Posted by CrazyFool  2004-09-27 2:51:38 PM||   2004-09-27 2:51:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 Link for the Reuters denial?
Posted by Anonymous6687 2004-09-27 2:52:23 PM||   2004-09-27 2:52:23 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 looked for it on JPost (original link) and there's no followup, so I think it's not true...
Posted by Frank G  2004-09-27 2:53:27 PM||   2004-09-27 2:53:27 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 And suddenly this on CNN, I'm starting to wonder.......
Posted by Heysenbergwashere 2004-09-27 2:53:42 PM||   2004-09-27 2:53:42 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 My sources say that CNN sources include "H" a large, yet sympathetic rabbit.
Posted by Shipman 2004-09-27 3:40:08 PM||   2004-09-27 3:40:08 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 Dunno, maybe someone (perv) cant resist the urge to brag just a little...... It's probably nothing but I still get a warm fuzzy feeling when I imagine the U.S. doing a Khalid Sheikh Mohammed on Osama's or Al-Z's ass.
Posted by Heysenbergwashere 2004-09-27 3:56:21 PM||   2004-09-27 3:56:21 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 The only thing I want to see is the Uday/Kusay treatment. Glass window display. There better not be a dog and pony trial.
Posted by Poison Reverse 2004-09-27 4:25:44 PM||   2004-09-27 4:25:44 PM|| Front Page Top

#21 this is really really weird. I saw the reuters link and thought I posted it (#9, above). My technical proficiency is lacking, to say the least. So when I returned and didn't see it, I went back to re-find it. Can't find it. Anywhere. I'm not crazy. Mostly.

Now, when you go to the Jpost site and do a search, it's not to be found, either. News.google.com references two articles, both of which use the jpost as the source.

dammit. if only it were true.
Posted by PlanetDan  2004-09-27 4:31:29 PM||   2004-09-27 4:31:29 PM|| Front Page Top

#22 you kill zawahiri without arresting him you dont get intel. You bag him and interrogate, you get probably a huge amount of intell. You want to capture the SOB's alive, wherever possible.
Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-09-27 4:34:37 PM||   2004-09-27 4:34:37 PM|| Front Page Top

#23 agreed, LH. Although it seems to me a slow beheading with a dull blade would be sweet justice. al-jizz can report it, and it can be shown on lots of websites.
Posted by PlanetDan  2004-09-27 4:40:20 PM||   2004-09-27 4:40:20 PM|| Front Page Top

#24 This is an endrun around the Kerry campaign. Theresa says Bin Laden in October, instead we get Zawahiri in September. Also Kerry's throat problems last week was the result of a CIA hit.
Posted by Super Hose 2004-09-27 5:03:00 PM||   2004-09-27 5:03:00 PM|| Front Page Top

#25 I wonder what "Baghdad Bob-Dan Rather" has to say about this??
Posted by The Ol Prof 2004-09-27 7:41:09 PM||   2004-09-27 7:41:09 PM|| Front Page Top

#26 Any real leakage would be at least 2 weeks and at most 4 weeks after the capture of a HVT. Any confirmation and announcement would be the same time frame + 3 to 5 days.

The preference would be to hold them incommunicado indefinitly, but the most useful stuff that coudl be compromised would be gathered within a couple weeks - 1 week to break them, the other to gather data and implement plans to take advantage.

The big value comes in extracting data over the long haul - cross checking, indexing, requestioning, etc. Thats why the guys at Gitmo were held for so long.

Holding an underling who can go missing for months is valuable (due to the "cellular" nature of the lowest levels). Think about how law enforcement borke the mafia - not by getting the big bosses, but by weaving together the borken lower levels until they had a net to get the Godfathers with.

But, as far as holding a HVT and not letting anyone know, its really not all that productive past a few weeks. An organization such as Al Qaeda would generally be able to detect the missing leadership by such time and would implement contingency plans to minimize vulnerabilities within 2-3 weeks.

So the whole "October Surprise" is unlikely unless we are in the act of capturing an HVT right now or within the next 2 weeks.
Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-27 8:05:49 PM||   2004-09-27 8:05:49 PM|| Front Page Top

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