Archived material Access restricted Article
Rantburg

Today's Front Page   View All of Tue 09/14/2004 View Mon 09/13/2004 View Sun 09/12/2004 View Sat 09/11/2004 View Fri 09/10/2004 View Thu 09/09/2004 View Wed 09/08/2004
1
2004-09-14 Europe
EU art show proclaims Europe as 'the new Roman Empire'
Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.
Posted by Bulldog 2004-09-14 4:45:19 AM|| || Front Page|| [11132 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 LOL, what have they been smoking? And why would anyone want to expand into North Africa and the Middle East (unless of course it's North Africa and the Middle East that expand into Europe, which is more likely). As the guy said in True Grit: "that's bold talk for a one-eyed fat man"!
Posted by Spot  2004-09-14 5:14:36 AM||   2004-09-14 5:14:36 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Did the Romans have as many unemployed people as we do now? The slogan should be "The Islamic Empire Returns"
Posted by Dutchgeek 2004-09-14 5:28:47 AM||   2004-09-14 5:28:47 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Yea they are going to do that all with the armies they don't have and can't afford. Meanwhile they assimilate every "migrant" from "north africa" and "asia" who comes knocking. I was thinking it was a joke then I read the article at the Telegraph and realized they are that delusional. Oh well "good luck."
Posted by Sock Puppet of Doom 2004-09-14 5:28:50 AM||   2004-09-14 5:28:50 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 "... it was designed to narrow Europe’s "iconographic deficit" by conjuring up forceful images."

Meaning, we don't stand for anything and we have no new ideas.
Good luck, new Roman empire.
Posted by Baltic Blog 2004-09-14 6:21:04 AM|| [http://balticblog.blogspot.com]  2004-09-14 6:21:04 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 The Former Soviet Union was also known for their iconography.

Dutchgeek,
Bread and Circuses was the first welfare program. The New Roman Empire seems determined to surpass the Old Roman Empire in this regard.
Posted by ed 2004-09-14 7:22:09 AM||   2004-09-14 7:22:09 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 New Roman Empire. Hmm… we last heard that used of Germany between 1933 and 1945…
Posted by Steve from Relto 2004-09-14 8:54:22 AM||   2004-09-14 8:54:22 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 1. how are you gonna be a superpower when none o f their members can get along? 2. PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEASEtake the UN too gibralter. then don't ask for any more money too run the crap with.
Posted by smokeysinse 2004-09-14 9:00:36 AM||   2004-09-14 9:00:36 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 I can see this -- but it is the declining Roman Empire and the rise of Islam. France is going Islamic, Turkey will eventually enter the EU, etc. Can Syria be far behind? Oh, and they can move the U.N. right now as far as I'm concerned.
Posted by Tom 2004-09-14 9:01:50 AM||   2004-09-14 9:01:50 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 EU art show proclaims Europe as ’the new Roman Empire’

I agree. They're in the ass end phase of it. The part with the barbarian invasion.
Posted by tu3031 2004-09-14 9:02:46 AM||   2004-09-14 9:02:46 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 Wow, where do we sign up? We can be the ones who turn out the lights for them.
Posted by .com 2004-09-14 9:15:37 AM||   2004-09-14 9:15:37 AM|| Front Page Top

#11 Enter the Visigoths.. Allahu Akbar!
Posted by Howard UK 2004-09-14 9:21:22 AM||   2004-09-14 9:21:22 AM|| Front Page Top

#12 The rock already has enough monkeys.
Posted by Shipman 2004-09-14 9:34:59 AM||   2004-09-14 9:34:59 AM|| Front Page Top

#13 Well, they *almost* got it right. The EU will be like the next Holy Roman Empire.
If you think of the Italian Roman Empire as being the first and best, and the German HRE as being the second and mediocre, perhaps this Franco-Kraut "Third Reich", will encompass at that is petty and stupid in Europe.
Posted by Anonymoose 2004-09-14 10:00:12 AM||   2004-09-14 10:00:12 AM|| Front Page Top

#14  " The European Union is poised to overtake America to become the premier superpower, according to an EU exhibition launched yesterday in the heart of Brussels."

..Wasn't this on one of those alternate universe eps of Star Trek ?

Mike
Posted by Mike Kozlowski 2004-09-14 10:02:34 AM||   2004-09-14 10:02:34 AM|| Front Page Top

#15 ...comes to dominate world affairs through its vast "legal and moral reach".

I see that the first thing the new Emperor did was to buy a fine new set of threads.
Posted by BH 2004-09-14 10:26:06 AM||   2004-09-14 10:26:06 AM|| Front Page Top

#16 1. Gibbon posited that the decline and fall of the Roman Empire was due to the adoption of Christianity. But it took 150 years. Europe has now repudiated Christianity. It will be interesting to see how soon it adopts Islam and how soon thereafter the fall occurs.

2. Anybody else find it interesting that while the Americans are reviled for seeking to establish an empire they don't want that the Europeans are actively seeking to reinstall one less than 100 years after the most recent outbreak of European imperialsim destroyed Europe?

3. While I'm not happy with what is happening to the dollar, anybody want to review the political, demographic and economic trends here vs Europe and see which currency looks more likely to retain its value?

Maybe this is a good readon not to legalize dope. Cause it sure loks like they're smokin a lot of it over there.
Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-09-14 10:33:23 AM||   2004-09-14 10:33:23 AM|| Front Page Top

#17 The pop-art collage mounted in a tent outside the European Commission narrates 50 years of EU history...

I wonder if 50 was a randomly selected number. How would the exhibition have been different if they had used, say, 70?
Posted by jules 187 2004-09-14 10:34:35 AM||   2004-09-14 10:34:35 AM|| Front Page Top

#18 The jokes in the comments kind of write themselves, don't they? Heh.
Posted by Baltic Blog 2004-09-14 10:37:25 AM|| [http://balticblog.blogspot.com]  2004-09-14 10:37:25 AM|| Front Page Top

#19 "I wonder if 50 was a randomly selected number."

Ofcourse not.

How would the exhibition have been different if they had used, say, 70?"

Starting date of the EU project was either 1952 with the Treaty of Paris (and the Coal and Steel Community), or 1957 with the Treaty of Rome and the EEC. So the EU doesn't have 70 years of history, it has about 50. So hardly "random" this.

Mrs. Davis, the difference between the Roman Empire and the EU is that all our members want to be a part of it. It's a *voluntary* union. Did you see the referendum results in the new member states?
Posted by Aris Katsaris  2004-09-14 10:58:45 AM||   2004-09-14 10:58:45 AM|| Front Page Top

#20 The euro will break the "overbearing monopoly of the dollar" by 2010 as China and India switch their reserves to punish America for its "stratospheric deficit

silly euros, making forecasts based on the last 3 years. Anyway, I thought we wanted China to delink the Yuan from the dollar?

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-09-14 11:06:51 AM||   2004-09-14 11:06:51 AM|| Front Page Top

#21 So, Aris-does that mean that the composition of the exhibition strictly pertains to the EU? Wouldn't the exhibition be fairly small between 1952 and say 1991?
Posted by jules 187 2004-09-14 11:15:35 AM||   2004-09-14 11:15:35 AM|| Front Page Top

#22 Never mind the politics. Gimme the glitz. Bring on the feasts, orgies and gladiators. Heh.
Posted by Zhang Fei  2004-09-14 11:25:21 AM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2004-09-14 11:25:21 AM|| Front Page Top

#23 The EU collage should have featured one of Rembrandt's portraits of pensive old folks. The EU nations are dying and will not be a threat to anyone except themselves.

The one thing we know for certain is that the EU's population by 2050 will become either very old and smaller than it is today, or very muslim.

If the EU average age does reach 52 by 2050, as demographic trends indicate it will (absent a sea-change in attitudes toward feminism, child-rearing, the family etc), then the EU welfare state collapses. The numbers don't add up. You can't go from a worker-to-beneficiary ratio of 3:1 (as in the postwar era) to 1:2 today without destroying the welfare state that underlies the social contract at the heart of the EU.

That financial collapse is already underway; France's health care system's already bankrupt, and most EU pension funds are facing bankruptcy in the next 5-10 years.

The alternative path is a massive increase in the number of young, working, paying into the system immigrants, who of course will come mainly from muslim nations in Africa and the mideast. Which means sharp social divides and more ChiraK-style triangulation or outright tilting toward the jihadists. You can't have a pro-US foreign policy when 20% or more of the electorate is angry young muslim resenters.

So it's either the EU Old Folks' Home or EUrabia. What's your preference, Aris?
Posted by lex 2004-09-14 11:27:50 AM||   2004-09-14 11:27:50 AM|| Front Page Top

#24 Aris,

If it's such a voluntary union, how come so many state governments don't want to let the people vote on the adoption of the new constitution that will really make it a union?
Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-09-14 11:28:17 AM||   2004-09-14 11:28:17 AM|| Front Page Top

#25 Can the Italians sue for defamation of history?
Posted by mojo  2004-09-14 11:31:03 AM||   2004-09-14 11:31:03 AM|| Front Page Top

#26 I'm afraid we're lacking two things to be a New Roman Empire:

A decent military and enough babies. But I guess it was meant as a joke anyway.

We need a "European Roman Empire" as much as we need an American one.
Posted by True German Ally 2004-09-14 11:31:04 AM||   2004-09-14 11:31:04 AM|| Front Page Top

#27 mojo, lol.
Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-09-14 11:33:24 AM||   2004-09-14 11:33:24 AM|| Front Page Top

#28 Actually I like the idea of designating the EU as a retirement home. Lovely villages, great food, beautiful and empty cathedrals, nice old grannies and gramps.... Wouldn't harm or annoy anyone.

Have to do something about those violent young beurs, though. Maybe they could create a gated community for the old folks stretching from Auxerre south to Cadiz and east to Ljublana?
Posted by lex 2004-09-14 11:36:12 AM||   2004-09-14 11:36:12 AM|| Front Page Top

#29 hules> So, Aris-does that mean that the composition of the exhibition strictly pertains to the EU?

Since the first time I hear of this exhibition is this post here, you tell me. The article said "50 years of EU history" and that's the number you commented on and so that's what I'm talking about.

Aris, if it's such a voluntary union, how come so many state governments don't want to let the people vote on the adoption of the new constitution that will really make it a union?

The majority of nations will be voting on it, I believe. Some of the remaining ones (like Greece) have an allergy against referendums which is unrelated to chances of it passing -- polls in Greece for example show a large majority in favour of the constitution, but we're not gonna get a vote on it sadly. Germany prohibits all national referendums in its constitution -- that's because referendums had been seen as aiding in the Nazi rise. I don't know much about the remaining ones.

And you've been seriously deluded if you think that the "constitution will really make it a union". With the exception of abolishing the rotating presidency, it hardly changes *any* of the current function of the EU. It mostly makes a few changes that make the EU *slightly* more functional, less prone to deadlock, and turns a simplifies a mass of different treaties and agreements into a single entity.

What exactly did you think the EU constitution would do?

But either way we're not talking about the constitution solely, whose particular version may or may not be disagreeable. We are talking about the EU as a whole. Check the referendums for admission into the EU -- rather than guess about the future of a possibly-passing-possibly not constitution.
Posted by Aris Katsaris  2004-09-14 11:53:33 AM||   2004-09-14 11:53:33 AM|| Front Page Top

#30 There is a debate going on in Germany to lift the constitutional ban on national referendums.

People are still kinda pissed that they didn't get to vote on the Euro. Since the major parties supported the Euro there was no democratic way of rejecting it.

The EU constitution certainly disfavors Germany which is underrepresented considering the ratio vote/inhabitant. I agree though that the status quo with 25 members (growing to 28) is unsustainable.

But I'm most worried about the partly undemocratic, unelected status of those who influence our life more and more, trumpeting democratically elected leaders.

This must change.
Posted by True German Ally 2004-09-14 12:02:27 PM||   2004-09-14 12:02:27 PM|| Front Page Top

#31 Don't suppose any Rantburgers live around Brussels? It might be fun to take a peak at the exhibition. The EU’s Dutch presidency said yesterday it was designed to narrow Europe’s "iconographic deficit" by conjuring up forceful images--it's a marketing tactic (nothing wrong with that) but I'd like to see exactly what it is the EU is promoting. Do you think it might actually be a promo piece on "European political sagesse"?
Posted by jules 187 2004-09-14 12:04:38 PM||   2004-09-14 12:04:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#32 Just some minor tinkering, but the Germans want to lift the constitutional ban for it. OK, I'm convinced. It's all voluntary and in the interest of the people.
Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-09-14 12:15:11 PM||   2004-09-14 12:15:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#33 Mrs Davis, it's hugely *symbolic*, ofcourse. It's the first treaty that's labelled a "Constitution" for example.

But, lady, you don't have to take my word on it on how huge or small *actual* changes it makes on the EU's functions. The proposed constitution is available on the Internet, and so are the past treaties, and commentaries on what it changes and what remains the same.

Dig right in.
Posted by Aris Katsaris  2004-09-14 12:23:08 PM||   2004-09-14 12:23:08 PM|| Front Page Top

#34 Aris, a "Constitution" that decides the voting and decision rights of European states can hardly be called "hugely symbolic".
Posted by True German Ally 2004-09-14 12:26:52 PM||   2004-09-14 12:26:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#35 Aris, which outcome do you prefer-- EUrabia or the EU Retirement Home?
Posted by lex 2004-09-14 12:32:44 PM||   2004-09-14 12:32:44 PM|| Front Page Top

#36 
The European Union is poised to overtake America to become the premier superpower
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

On what planet?

Yeah, right - they'll become the "premier superpower" as soon as we give them our technology and we pay for it for them, and we place our military at their disposal.

I want some of what these clowns have been smoking. ;-)

The United Nations headquarters will be moved to Gibralter
Don't wait! Do it NOW. Please! I'll even volunteer to help them pack.
Posted by Barbara Skolaut  2004-09-14 12:41:42 PM||   2004-09-14 12:41:42 PM|| Front Page Top

#37 It changes the voting rights, but only in Spain and Poland it changes them significantly, I believe -- and that's because it was felt they were hugely overrepresented in European Council votes in past treaties, each country having only half the population of Germany for example but about the same number of votes.

Germany is favoured by the new constitution I believe in this respect I believe -- in past treaties it had the same number of votes in the Council as the UK, France and Italy, even though it was significantly larger in population. Now population enters the game with the double majority (population+number of states).

I would understand Spain or Poland turning down the constitution for this reason -- and indeed they almost did; that's what held it up for so long. But I wouldn't understand Germany doing the same for this reason.
Posted by Aris Katsaris  2004-09-14 12:42:40 PM||   2004-09-14 12:42:40 PM|| Front Page Top

#38 I guess it depends on what you mean by the Roman empire - the Byzantines on their last legs or the Romans at the peak of imperial glory. The Roman empire was known for its barbarian pacification campaigns. Is the EU up for that?
Posted by Zhang Fei  2004-09-14 12:44:18 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2004-09-14 12:44:18 PM|| Front Page Top

#39 Hah -- found this: http://www.euobserver.com/?sid=9&aid=17282

It seems to be by far tongue-in-cheek:

"The exhibition also sees the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) being phased out in 2012 after a massive "scrap the CAP" campaign by citizens. Also in this vision of the future, the EU will adopt Chinese as its official language in 2012. "

Lex> "Aris, which outcome do you prefer-- EUrabia or the EU Retirement Home?"

Hasn't your momma taught you about the bad logic of false dilemmas?
Posted by Aris Katsaris  2004-09-14 12:47:15 PM||   2004-09-14 12:47:15 PM|| Front Page Top

#40 And the third option is...?

Didn't your papa teach you about numbers and sums?
Posted by lex 2004-09-14 12:48:41 PM||   2004-09-14 12:48:41 PM|| Front Page Top

#41 I get it - these guys are calling the EU one big Roman circus. (Except Roman circuses involved gladiators and wild beasts).
Posted by Zhang Fei  2004-09-14 12:55:10 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2004-09-14 12:55:10 PM|| Front Page Top

#42 Third option? How about a change in the welfare system? Or the true assimilation of immigrants? Or both?

Oops, no we can't ever believe in the mere *possibility* of those occuring, because those aren't catastrophic scenarios and so are inconvenient to contemplate in a EU-bashing session.
Posted by Aris Katsaris  2004-09-14 12:56:31 PM||   2004-09-14 12:56:31 PM|| Front Page Top

#43 Aris,
As a Europhile, please assign probabilities to:
1 How about a change in the welfare system?
2 Or the true assimilation of immigrants?
Posted by ed 2004-09-14 12:59:56 PM||   2004-09-14 12:59:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#44 The change in the welfare system is already happening.
And not every Turk in Germany is a sharia loving Islamist. Most Turkish girls prefer mini skirts to hijab.
Posted by True German Ally 2004-09-14 1:02:08 PM||   2004-09-14 1:02:08 PM|| Front Page Top

#45 OK, then what becomes of the EU's self-image as the un-capitalist, un-American, socialist alternative to US hypercapitalism when the EU is forced to abandon the welfare state?

PS raising the retirement age from 55 to 58 won't cut it. Raising it to 70 won't cut it either.

Do the math. One paying worker for two elderly retirees = bankruptcy of pension and health systems.
Posted by lex 2004-09-14 1:06:16 PM||   2004-09-14 1:06:16 PM|| Front Page Top

#46 Look, we have a milder version of the same problem, but we easily and successfully assimilate even arab immigrants. We get the strivers; the EU gets the resenters. Our racist xenophobes get at most 1% of the national vote; Le Pen got 18% last time around (and defeated the sitting Socialist PM in the first round). Perhaps this situation will change for Europe, but I've yet to see any evidence of it.
Posted by lex 2004-09-14 1:09:35 PM||   2004-09-14 1:09:35 PM|| Front Page Top

#47 What we need:

More private pension funds (not taxed on income)
A better immigration policy that favors young qualified people (preferably not "religiously challenged")
Aggressive tax cuts
Much less bureaucracy

Do that for ten years and the EU will look much brighter
Posted by True German Ally 2004-09-14 1:23:07 PM||   2004-09-14 1:23:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#48 EU art show proclaims Europe as "the new Roman Empire"




Yeah. Right!

Posted by BigEd 2004-09-14 1:26:33 PM||   2004-09-14 1:26:33 PM|| Front Page Top

#49 TGA, what's the probability of that occurring, in your opinion, in Germany at some point in this decade? My guess is that there's a decent chance of that kind of intelligent retrenchment in Denmark and the Netherlands, the UK under Brown, perhaps also France under Sarkozy in the future. If Aznar had not lost to Bambi Z, perhaps in Spain as well.

But I don't see much chance of reform elsewhere.
Anyway, keep fighting the good fight. Hope you succeed, for our sake as well as Europe's.
Posted by lex 2004-09-14 1:30:18 PM||   2004-09-14 1:30:18 PM|| Front Page Top

#50 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Anonymous6449 TROLL 2004-09-14 1:35:58 PM||   2004-09-14 1:35:58 PM|| Front Page Top

#51 "It sure is easy to pick out the US from the Euros...."

Sure, just separate the presumed authority, bigoted pronouncements, and dhimmi-apologia from the others.
Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2004-09-14 1:48:59 PM||   2004-09-14 1:48:59 PM|| Front Page Top

#52 The election is getting near and the trolls are restless.

BTW, Bush as opened a big lead in Ohio.
Posted by Shipman 2004-09-14 1:52:51 PM||   2004-09-14 1:52:51 PM|| Front Page Top

#53 On a related note, I wonder if the compulsive authoritarianism of the pop-left is somehow related to the hierarchy of the drug culture, in which sources are progressively more fearsome and ominipotent authorities and users have their own hierarchy of slavery, with financially secure trustafarians and media authorities at the top, and impoverished criminals and prostitutes at the bottom?
Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2004-09-14 1:53:19 PM||   2004-09-14 1:53:19 PM|| Front Page Top

#54 Anon6446-Could you connect one thought to another? It would make it clearer what your political philosophy is; the ramblings, which make sense to you, have us scratching our heads.
Posted by jules 187 2004-09-14 1:57:06 PM||   2004-09-14 1:57:06 PM|| Front Page Top

#55 National unity and its EU analog will be a critical long-term factor in this conflict.
There is no serious separatist movement in the United States, hasn't been since 1865. How many are there in the EU countries? 50? 100? It depends on the definition of separatist, I suppose, but the intensity of such conflicts as that between, say, Walloons and Flemings in Belgium amazes Americans. The lid has been kept on this for a century or more, but attempts at cultural and legal unity may actually highlight regional differences.
It is also worth noting that quite a few of the EU member states are comparatively young compared to the United States, in terms of their existence as constitutionally unified nation-states. Germany dates only from 1871, Italy from about the same time. Norway has been independent nation-state only since 1905 and many of the east European countries achieved this status only very recently.
Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2004-09-14 2:30:10 PM||   2004-09-14 2:30:10 PM|| Front Page Top

#56 Precisely, AC!

I love the way the Europeans tell us we're just a "young" country and they're so much older with so much more experience.

But our form of government has remained exactly the same since 1789 - through internal as well as external wars, changing of parties in power, etc.

Which European nation can say the same?

(Note to Bulldog and Howard: Yes, I know your Constitutional Monarchy has been around a long, long time, but I'm pretty sure the King had far more actual power in 1776 to wage "King George's War" than the Queen does today. If I'm wrong, I apologize and defer to your knowledge of your own country.)
Posted by Barbara Skolaut  2004-09-14 2:41:34 PM||   2004-09-14 2:41:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#57 jules,

I'm perfectly satisfied with the post as A6449 wrote it. Clarity might engender a response which would lead to further offerings from A6449. Somehow, I doubt we want to encourgae that.
Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-09-14 2:46:17 PM||   2004-09-14 2:46:17 PM|| Front Page Top

#58 
There’s something else on the EU’s wall, big letters obscured by the posters and aggressive propaganda. It’s called "the writing".
"The moving finger writes, and having writ, moves on. Nor all thy piety and wit can call it back to cancel half a line, nor all thy tears wash out a word of it." -Omar Khyyam

But Le Monde and ChIraq will sure try.

(Note to nitpickers: the quote may not be exact, having been done from memory, but it's close enough for the purpose. Go Google something else.)
Posted by Barbara Skolaut  2004-09-14 2:46:47 PM||   2004-09-14 2:46:47 PM|| Front Page Top

#59 Mrs. D-
;)
Posted by jules 187 2004-09-14 2:56:21 PM||   2004-09-14 2:56:21 PM|| Front Page Top

#60 A6449: If several other nations that intend to switch from a US dollar based economy to the EURO based, and independently without undo interference from the US, do so.

A6449 suffers from a kind of economic illiteracy that is widespread. People don't use dollars because they like the US any more than they buy oil because they like the Arabs. Mercantilists tend to look at America's trade and budget deficits and point to them as a sign of economic weakness. But they are not. The twin deficits are a sign of economic strength. Foreigners incur trade surpluses with the US not because they like us, but because they need to keep their factories going. Note that they don't run these trade surpluses with countries like Botswana or Burma. Foreigners buy American government debt because the US economy is the largest in the world, and a tiny increase in taxes or a tiny decrease in government spending would wipe the annual deficit out. A $500B annual deficit and a total debt figure of about $6,800B looks like a lot until you realize that America's annual output is $11,000B. By comparison, most families have mortgages several times their annual income. And what is the trade deficit as a percentage of America's total output? A mere 5%, and this includes oil, which has skyrocketed in price in the past year.
Posted by Zhang Fei  2004-09-14 3:02:28 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2004-09-14 3:02:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#61 The dollar's weakness is indeed a cause for concern, but nor anything having to do with Europe or the euro. Everything hinges on the degree of confidence in the US economy shown by the central banks of the really crucial nations today, China and Japan. They (and SO Korea) are the ones who hold something like 50% of US treasuries. If they decide to buy euro-denominated debt instead, which is far-fetched but not inconceivable, then a downward spiral would begin. But that spiral would take them down first by depriving their biggest market of significant purchasing power (which is why CHina resists revaluation of the yuan).

In short the economic warfare arguments are asinine. We and the Asians, and also the Europeans, are economically joined at the hip. Can't bring down one economy without screwing all the others.
Posted by lex 2004-09-14 3:08:05 PM||   2004-09-14 3:08:05 PM|| Front Page Top

#62 What's also significant is that the EU is trying to build up their perceived "image" by attacking the US, instead of standing on their own political feet. Anybody can look like a "big dog" for a bit, when they're "condemning" an opponent. And BTW, where are the LLL's cries against "imperialist expansionism?" Colonialists by any other name are still colonialists, aren't they?

Thanks ZF and lex--interesting
Posted by ex-lib 2004-09-14 3:29:46 PM||   2004-09-14 3:29:46 PM|| Front Page Top

#63 xl, good point. one would think that after looking at how the peace of WWII worked out versus the peace of WWI and how we chose to fight Stalin as opposed to the way they chose to fight Hitler that the Europeans might have picked up on the fact that life is not a zero sum game, but Nooooo.
Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-09-14 3:38:25 PM||   2004-09-14 3:38:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#64 lex: If they decide to buy euro-denominated debt instead, which is far-fetched but not inconceivable, then a downward spiral would begin.

What downward spiral? If they decide to buy euro-denominated debt, US bond yields will go up, and more Americans will buy Treasury bonds. Note that Americans have 34 trillion dollars in assets of all kinds. Assets that can be converted to cash to buy higher-yielding bonds. The interest alone on these assets is enough to buy up the annual Treasury bond issue several times over, never mind the principal.
Posted by Zhang Fei  2004-09-14 3:38:33 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2004-09-14 3:38:33 PM|| Front Page Top

#65 As to the value of trade surpluses, veryretired at samizdata puts it best:

The Japanese ran huge trade surpluses for decades, and then their economy collapsed into a depression that has lasted over ten years.

The ultimate trade surplus was the gold and silver looted from the Americas by the Spanish. By the time they had brought home tons of new wealth, their money supply collapsed, and their economy never recovered.

The key to vibrancy is not how much wealth can we obtain and hold, but how much can we create? The genius of a capitalist economic system protected by a reasonably free representative government is the creativity it nourishes. Everything else is a secondary consequence.

The countries of the world watched in amazement as the economy of the US, declared dead in the water in the 70's, created millions of jobs and entire new industries in the 80's and 90's. During much of this time, the nation had a trade deficit, and the government operated in the red.

While there is enormous room for improvement, as long as money can move to the point of best return, concepts which resonate with the public will be rewarded. I am typing on one of those concepts now, and that is why ideas matter.
Posted by Zhang Fei  2004-09-14 3:40:38 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2004-09-14 3:40:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#66 I don't pretend to have the answers on this, but I do know that Asian confidence in our prospects is key to everything. Which is another reason that this liberal is so determined to win the war on the jihadists: the Asians are sober realists and do not give a sh*t about human rights. They adhere to ObL's "strong horse/weak horse" view, and would probably begin to dump Treasuries not from some hard economic analysis but from a much more subjective sense that the US was in decline and incapable of defending itself. Financial panics are funny that way.

As to the hard econmics, from here forward I'll defer to Bill Gross of PIMCO, the superstar bond fund manager and for my money the smartest analysis of US Treasuries on the planet.
Posted by lex 2004-09-14 3:48:55 PM||   2004-09-14 3:48:55 PM|| Front Page Top

#67 If they decide to buy euro-denominated debt instead, which is far-fetched but not inconceivable, then a downward spiral would begin.

would a downward spiral begin? If dollar were no longer the reserve currency then we couldnt maintain the same exchange for a give set of fiscal and monetary policies, and wed have to accept more expensive imports and a lower standard of living, but i dont see why this wouldnt reach a new equilibrium fairly quickly.
Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-09-14 3:49:11 PM||   2004-09-14 3:49:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#68 Shipman : Look at Wisconsin too!
Posted by BigEd 2004-09-14 4:01:29 PM||   2004-09-14 4:01:29 PM|| Front Page Top

#69 TGA, et. al.,

One thing that has always puzzled me about the EU concept is why no one has thought to mimic the US Constitution with regards to representation and separation of powers. The whole big state, little state controversy was solved in 1789 and works pretty well. Two houses, one by population, one equal. Popular vote every 2 years for the volatile house and every 6 years for the moderating influence of the Senate.

Federal Gov't. has certain powers, all others devolve to the individual states. Even the electoral college approach has benefits for getting started, even back to the point where electors are elected and get to cast representative votes. Also the idea that exact methods of electing Reps and Senators can be left to the individual states.

Don't you think that with a few tweeks in the details this could work to balance the interests?
Posted by AlanC 2004-09-14 4:25:27 PM||   2004-09-14 4:25:27 PM|| Front Page Top

#70 If you want to know when the Euro is becoming a reserve currency, the first sign will be that large quantities of Euros are seized in Durg busts. $500 billion of the $700 billion of U. S. currency outstanding is $100 bills. No doubt, most of this is in the hands of foreigners. The Euro is issued in 200 and 500 denominations also and so would be more portable for those seeking to move large quantities of money quickly.

In addition, there is a rumor that may be urban legend that every $100 bill that is over 1 month old has traces of cocain on it. If so, how long does it take for a 500 Euro bill to give a good snort?
Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-09-14 4:38:04 PM||   2004-09-14 4:38:04 PM|| Front Page Top

#71 would a downward spiral begin?

Yes. To cover the massive sell-off in Treasuries, assets would have to be shifted from either stocks (down goes the Dow) or cash holdings, which would likely depress consumer spending, which would result in less demand for Asian exports, hence less retained earnings that Asian banks could invest here, hence less Asian demand, and on we go.

We could indeed do with a lower standard of living-- drive smaller cheaper cars, move from 4,000 square foot houses to 2,500 sq ft, etc-- but since consumer spending accounts for about 67% of GNP, that would mean lower growth and less tax revenue for Washington. Which would mean a larger deficit and more borrowing, which would further depress Treasury prices....

Posted by lex 2004-09-14 5:35:38 PM||   2004-09-14 5:35:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#72 To get more serious - maybe - I bet that fundie/evangelical Christians who are into biblical prophecy are going wild over this news item. After all, ever since Hal Lindsay wrote _The Late Great Planet Earth_, it's been almost an article of faith among many conservative Christians that the EEC/EU is a forerunner of the end-time world-state. In fact, Lindsay - and a lot of others - call it the "Revived Roman Empire", following a prophetic scheme that I don't really have the time to get into now. The fact that the EU is now declaring itself openly, at least in that particular forum, to be the revival of Rome can only add fuel to this fire.
Posted by Joe  2004-09-14 5:54:52 PM||   2004-09-14 5:54:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#73 To get (sorta) serious about this hogwash, let's remember that the Roman Empire (post-Caesar) had two main methodologies for conqured nations - they would either
1) be very, very nice to the local king, giving him more money and power than he ever dreamed of, thus ensuring his eternal loyalty to the Empire, or
2) they would wipe out the local nobility root and branch, right down to the kids and pets, thus ensuring that they would never be a problem in the future.

Which one will the EU decide on?
Posted by mojo  2004-09-14 6:17:36 PM||   2004-09-14 6:17:36 PM|| Front Page Top

#74 mojo-See my entry at #48.

You be the judge.
Posted by BigEd 2004-09-14 6:33:23 PM||   2004-09-14 6:33:23 PM|| Front Page Top

#75 Be humble and thoughful BigEd...
But our time is neigh and I have 11 electric agendas I'm going to explode in the back pasture.
Posted by Shipman 2004-09-14 7:07:44 PM||   2004-09-14 7:07:44 PM|| Front Page Top

#76 The E.U. led by German-Franco banking interests is in a replay of the last time Nazi Germany & Vichy France plus Axis Italy attempted A New Roman Empire in the 1930's & early 1940's.
Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-09-14 8:28:59 PM||   2004-09-14 8:28:59 PM|| Front Page Top

#77 AlanC, the disagreement between big and small states is a minor sidepoint to the real question which is federalism versus intergovernmentalism: that's shown by the fact that it was neither the big nor the small states that had a problem with the double majority system (states, populations) introduced, it was two middle-sized nations (Spain and Poland) that felt they were getting a rough deal, because the bizarre voting arrangement of past treaties favoured them, even if illogical.

I bet that fundie/evangelical Christians who are into biblical prophecy are going wild over this news item

Yeah: when Greece entered the EU (EC back then) becoming the tenth member state, the EU was the ten-horned beast of the Apocalypse. The religious crazies were *so* disappointed when EU just kept on adding member states: Revelations alas didn't describe a twenty-five-horned beast. :-)
Posted by Aris Katsaris  2004-09-14 9:34:05 PM||   2004-09-14 9:34:05 PM|| Front Page Top

#78 As a sidenote, and to make myself clear, that's just my own *interpretation* of events, that the actual point isn't big-vs-small states. I'm sure many people think that's the real issue, it's me who doesn't.
Posted by Aris Katsaris  2004-09-14 9:39:20 PM||   2004-09-14 9:39:20 PM|| Front Page Top

#79 shit, and here I'm thinking this was all scrappleface......
Posted by Jarhead 2004-09-14 9:52:39 PM||   2004-09-14 9:52:39 PM|| Front Page Top

#80 I think amsterdam would've been a more fitting city to display this stuff.....that way they'd at least have an excuse for the delusions....
Posted by Jarhead 2004-09-14 10:26:54 PM||   2004-09-14 10:26:54 PM|| Front Page Top

#81 Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Anonymous6449 2004-09-14 1:35:58 PM||   2004-09-14 1:35:58 PM|| Front Page Top

21:52 007
21:52 007
09:22 P_CE Reporter
00:52 P_CE Reporter
13:35 Anonymous6449
12:48 Anonymous6449
12:21 Anonymous6449
03:02 Anonymous6444
01:09 Anonymous6444
00:32 P&CE Reporter
00:32 P&CE Reporter
00:26 P&CE Reporter
00:26 P&CE Reporter
01:36 Mister Write
01:30 Mister Write
01:19 Mister Write
01:05 Mister Write
00:51 Super Hose
00:28 Mister Write
00:03 GK
23:57 Lucky
23:57 GK
23:56 Mister Write
23:52 Zenster









Paypal:
Google
Search WWW Search rantburg.com