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2014-09-09 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

WHO on Liberia: New Ebola cases increasing exponentially

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Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2014-09-09 02:19|| || Front Page|| [11131 views ] Top

#1 It has been all along.

Doubling time: 34.8 days

Multiplier: 1.5

Despite spotty data, I ran the numbers, assuming the doubling time and rate of increase stay constant, and interventions remain ineffective.

2014 (cases/deaths)

Aug 28: 3069/1550
Oct 2: 6138/3100
Nov 6: 12276/6200
Dec 11: 24552/12400

2015 (cases/deaths)

Jan 15: 49104/24800
Feb 19: 98208/49600
Mar 26: 196416/99200
Apr 30: 392832/198400
Jun 4: 785664/396800
Jul 9: 1571328/793600
Aug 13: 3142656/1587200
Sep 17: 6285312/3174400
Oct 22: 12570624/6348800
Nov 26: 25141248/12697600
Dec 31: 50282496/25395200

50 million infected, 25 million dead by the end of next year. About the same as the 1918 flu pandemic.

WHO/CDC says they'll have it under control in 6-9 months - around the time the quarter-million mark is reached next spring. Let's hope so, because if it keeps going:

2016 (deaths only)

Feb 2016: 50,790,400
Mar 2016: 101,580,800
Apr 2016: 203,161,600
May 2016: 406,323,200
Jun 2016: 812,646,400
Jul 2016: 1,625,292,800
Aug 2016: 3,250,585,600
Sep 2016: 6,501,171,200

May as well stop there, since 6.5 billion dead is almost the world's total population. No doubt they will all vote Democrat in November!

Posted by RandomJD 2014-09-09 08:43|| 2014-09-09 08:43|| Front Page Top

#2 US and Britain to send troops to help build new units for the ill.

Really don't know how much more they can do to "help". It has gotten past the point of isolating and treatment. Containment and let it run its course may be the only way now.

Posted by DarthVader 2014-09-09 09:04|| 2014-09-09 09:04|| Front Page Top

#3 There's always the problem with local environmental problems stopping the spread.

If doubling continued for mice at this rate we would have a mouse ball the size of Jupiter.

Why did the plague die out? Local environmental conditions changed to prevent the uncontrolled spread. Same will happen here...........eventually.

The question is what happens before that?

Posted by AlanC 2014-09-09 09:22|| 2014-09-09 09:22|| Front Page Top

#4 aaah random JD another one after mine own heart, running the numbers on ebola.

i have been doing that too.

i wonder very much to myself where to park my meagre funds to protect the store of value

gold? with the population halved it might go down a lot

shares? no

Property? less people means prices down

food? yes but difficult to buy. after the great plague of 1665 food prices went up a lot, inflation was massive. labour costs went up and people didn't tend to their crops

Posted by anon1 2014-09-09 10:30|| 2014-09-09 10:30|| Front Page Top

#5 i wonder very much to myself where to park my meagre funds to protect the store of value

Liquor, cigarettes, other tobacco products, toilet paper, toothpaste and other essentials that will vanish quickly and most likely production will cease. When buying liquor, buy cases of pints and half pints. Brewing supplies will also be profitable.

Posted by Sonny Glarong6820 2014-09-09 12:34|| 2014-09-09 12:34|| Front Page Top

#6 Water, seed and meat animals, Anon.
No one will want to mingle at the grocery, and there will be no deliveries.

Posted by Skidmark 2014-09-09 12:35|| 2014-09-09 12:35|| Front Page Top

#7 Herb and spice plants. Meat and vegetables quickly get boring, but hot pepper, basil, thymes, etc. will make a big difference in quality of life, and if planted in pots can be brought in for the winter. For that matter, having a personal supply of fresh herbs and spices will improve your quality of life regardless, so you might start now. ;-)

Impressive, RandomJD. If you can also do physics or chemistry, I shall develop a case of terminal envy.

Posted by trailing wife 2014-09-09 15:07|| 2014-09-09 15:07|| Front Page Top

#8 Fish hooks, pennacillin and whiskey.

Posted by Shipman 2014-09-09 15:35|| 2014-09-09 15:35|| Front Page Top

#9 Guns and whiskey, everything else....you get later.

Posted by bigjim-CA 2014-09-09 16:26|| 2014-09-09 16:26|| Front Page Top

#10 One factor that no one has really considered is level of natural immunity. It might be zero. But my guess is this has happened several times before and natural immunity levels are significant.

With modern transport we may find that outbreaks are worse outside tropical Africa because of no natural immunity.

Posted by phil_b 2014-09-09 18:06|| 2014-09-09 18:06|| Front Page Top

#11 It has happened several times before - out in the boondocks. The mortality rate of the most common strain of ebola (Zaire) is over 90%. It rarely got very far because it wiped out the whole village before most could get away. Ebola is a very efficient killer.

This strain has 98% sequence similarity to ebola Zaire, so the mortality rate is "only" about 55%. One of its routes of attack is on the immune system, similar to HIV and smallpox. They all cripple vital immune functions so the body can't defend itself.

So sure, "natural immunity" is probably out there - to the same extent it is against HIV and smallpox. That is to say, not enough to matter. Which is why no one is really considering it.

Posted by RandomJD 2014-09-09 22:50|| 2014-09-09 22:50|| Front Page Top

#12 Iff POTUS Obama = USA still expects to use LIBERIA as one its pointy diadems in its so-called anti-Milterr/Jihadi "Diamond" strategy in support of AFRICAN UNION, its gotta do something to help the country.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2014-09-09 23:03|| 2014-09-09 23:03|| Front Page Top

23:28 SteveS
23:28 trailing wife
23:28 trailing wife
23:21 trailing wife
23:20 tipover
23:17 OldSpook
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23:03 JosephMendiola
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22:59 JosephMendiola
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22:50 RandomJD
22:40 JosephMendiola
22:15 KBK
21:49 Mullah Richard
21:45 Zenobia Floger6220
21:33 KBK
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20:59 KBK
20:48 JosephMendiola
20:46 Pappy
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20:16 Rambler in Virginia
20:10 phil_b