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2004-08-26 Home Front: Politix

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Posted by Michael 2004-08-26 03:15|| || Front Page|| [11128 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Problem is, speaking electoral-vote-wise, Kerry is well in front.

Ohio, Missouri, Florida, Colorado, Michigan are all on the fence.

Even with the above, its more or less a dead heat, in terms of electoral vote.

Bush is behind in Pennsylvania, and he really must turn that around if he is to win the election, as well as getting the states above that firmly on his side,, expecially Ohio and Florida.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-08-26 3:34:39 AM|| 2004-08-26 3:34:39 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Given their track record of truthfulness, I'm not believing any polls delivered to we the "sheeple" by the Lying Liberal Left Mainstream Media.
It's clear they will tell any lie to promote their agenda and get their candidates elected.
The only poll that matters is the one on Nov. 2 and most people aren't going to say how they're going to vote and the media won't report it if they give "Bush" as the answer.

Posted by GreatestJeneration 2004-08-26 3:47:20 AM|| [http://www.greatestjeneration.com] 2004-08-26 3:47:20 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 If the LA Times admits to a Bush Lead of any kind then the reality is probabaly 15 points advantage Bush.

Posted by Michael 2004-08-26 3:57:47 AM|| 2004-08-26 3:57:47 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Away with fear and dismay: Dubya will win +5.

It's always entertaining to watch everyone twitch and atwitter two months out...

There's not a chance in hell the American electorate would put a nutter like Kerry in at this point in our history.

Bet on it.

Posted by geezer 2004-08-26 5:54:09 AM|| 2004-08-26 5:54:09 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 "There's not a chance in hell the American electorate would put a nutter like Kerry in at this point in our history. Bet on it."

I wouldn't go that far out on the limb myself, but people who are betting real money on the election are apparently starting to see a meltdown in the Kerry campaign: Bush re-election shares at both www.intrade.com and at the Iowa Electronic Markets (www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/) have been climbing since the Swiftboat Vets thing erupted over the weekend, while Kerry's shares have been falling.

I don't like to be overconfident; but I'm starting to see a glimmer of hope.

Posted by Dave D. 2004-08-26 6:19:53 AM|| 2004-08-26 6:19:53 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Kerry is panicing. He has asked for Aschroft to do a criminal investigation of the Swift Boat Vets.

Kerry is looking for something he can get some traction on. Clelands little trip to Texas didin't get any. Now he wants to take "Viet Nam off the table". Well I hope no one does since it shows him up for the truthless SOB he really is. Union men will hate his ass no matter what their Union Bosses tell them, that votes down the shitter now. The only cops that will vote for him don't qualify as real cops. Only the true blue lie eating party loyalists will vote for him. The LLL who supposedly will vote for Kerry out of hate for Bush not because they love Kerry are not enough to win. The lies about his service need to be pounded on day after day. It's costing him more votes than anything. The pressure has to be kept up. Kerry should have kept his "hero" crap to himself.

Posted by Sock Puppet of Doom 2004-08-26 6:59:33 AM|| 2004-08-26 6:59:33 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 I am telling you now so I can gloat later Bush is going to crush Kerry.

Posted by djohn66 2004-08-26 7:17:16 AM|| 2004-08-26 7:17:16 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 With the advent of cell phones and caller ID, it is getting more difficult to get an accurate sampling anymore. I would like to see the poll results from 2000 and 2002 compared to the election count in order to learn how much skew is now built into telephone polling.

Posted by ed 2004-08-26 8:54:19 AM|| 2004-08-26 8:54:19 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 Good news. One point of clarification, though-did Kerry ever call himself a hero? I think the media jumped on that strategy and paraded him as one (liberals that they largely are) in the hopes of countering Bush's national security strength.

Posted by jules 187 2004-08-26 9:24:29 AM|| 2004-08-26 9:24:29 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 OldSpook: not to worry. I've been tracking the state-by-state polls (okay, I'm a nerd), and as of this morning, if you use the average of the likely-voter polls, offset Zogby with Strategic Vision, Inc., and give a battleground state to the candidate who is ahead (even by 0.1%), you get: Bush 274, Kerry 264. Approximately 226 electoral votes are in states that are within 5%, that is, too close to call right now.

I've got an Excel template at home (as I said, I'm a nerd, so sue me) I can send you if you want it.

Posted by Steve White 2004-08-26 10:36:34 AM|| 2004-08-26 10:36:34 AM|| Front Page Top

#11 ed makes a good point (I've also made it previously)

people with cell phones and people who simply refuse to answer the phone unless their caller ID is recognized are not part of polls

I don't think anyone truly has a handle on whether this population group (possibly as high as 20% of total population) is systematically different than the people who answer polls.

And this year, like other years, a key factor is which side is better at IDing their voters and getting them to the poll in time to vote.

Also, this year, the overseas and absentee vote may be more of a factor than ever. DOD is working to make it easier for military personnel to vote. The Dems are working hard to get the 'students hitchhiking in Europe' vote, etc.

Posted by mhw 2004-08-26 11:58:00 AM|| 2004-08-26 11:58:00 AM|| Front Page Top

#12 I live in Marin County, CA so I am surrounded by the Bush hatred/Kerry is an acceptable alternative but I have no idea who he is or what he stands for but he is not Bush so he must be OK crowd. I am very nervous about this election and what will occur if Kerry is elected. I just keep telling myself that the Repubs should retain their hold on both houses of Congress which should limit any legislative damage he might do. But they are not the ones that prosecute military action. Kerry is going to either wimp out or lash out like a freakin idiot on that front. I think we will be in far greater danger with this empty suit in the white house. I have the willies bad about this one. I love all the positive thinking on this thread. I hope and pray that it comes true.

Posted by remote man 2004-08-26 1:01:16 PM|| 2004-08-26 1:01:16 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 I don't believe these polls for a minute, especially when they try to compare this election to 2000. So-called swing-states that were close in 2000 have a very different set of circumstances this time around, in case nobody has noticed. In 2000 nobody knew who Bush was and there was little for either candidate to run on. I didn't even vote and I'm willing to bet a large percentage of people actively involved in the blogosphere and 2004 politics didn't either.

The world changed radically after 9/11. There are many thousands of people who were not active politically then that most certainly ARE active now. I think there will be a rude awakening for the "anyone but Bush" crowd come November.

Posted by Chris W. 2004-08-26 1:10:52 PM|| 2004-08-26 1:10:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 Kerry is panicing. He has asked for Aschroft to do a criminal investigation of the Swift Boat Vets.

Is he accusing them of war crimes again?

You have to admire the depth of cowardice Kerry's showing: He's not even willing to sue them himself. Apparently he's afraid of what would come out during the discovery process.

Posted by Robert Crawford 2004-08-26 1:24:52 PM|| [http://www.kloognome.com] 2004-08-26 1:24:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 Apparently he's afraid of what would come out during the discovery process

All Kerry has to do is to take a deep breath. The 'discovery process' is taking place as I write this.

Posted by badanov 2004-08-26 2:45:22 PM|| [http://www.rkka.org] 2004-08-26 2:45:22 PM|| Front Page Top

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