Article

2008-08-13 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

Georgia asks NATO for military assistance

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Steve White 2008-08-13 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11127 views ] Top

#1 MOSCOW NEWS MONTHLY > NATO remains willing to still consider Georgia for formal NATO Membership.

*FARK.com Poster > UNCONFIRMED - Poster claims via confidential USAF source that MILPROPOS IS IN THE WORKS FOR BRITAIN-USAF TO AIRLIFT A LARGE ARMED CONTINGENT TO GEORGIA FROM IRAQ, TO ARRIVE AND BE FULLY EMPLACED IN GEORGIA NLT 08/19th = EOM August 2008???

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-08-13 01:13|| 2008-08-13 01:13|| Front Page Top

#2 No chance. Nobody can afford another Cold War.

Posted by McZoid 2008-08-13 01:36|| 2008-08-13 01:36|| Front Page Top

#3 McZ, actually, a short cold war would not be that bad. Once Russian leadership (probably without Putin) comes to their senses, the whole thing would be over.

Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-13 03:21|| 2008-08-13 03:21|| Front Page Top

#4 Well if the Russians want to play monopoly on energy and empart a policy of expansionism , then I for one , am supportive of extending radar placements , missle shields , and hardware right to their border . Along with an entourage of military advisors , financial packages , and incentives for the states around it .

I guess this is the gist of the phone calls between Bush and Putin.

If Putin and his ilk wanna play hardball , then sure , why not . We can all flex and posture .

Lol, McZoid "noone wants another cold war" - Putin does .... basically because it would galvanize his power base . Only the half witted cant spot that .

Posted by Mad Eye 2008-08-13 03:44|| 2008-08-13 03:44|| Front Page Top

#5 Actually, the U.S. can afford another Cold War. We're rich, remember? And we're expanding our military and updating our equipment anyway. Shoot, trailing daughter #1 has a new on-line story-writing partner who posts from Iraq and claims to be a Ranger doing things he can't discuss. (Any suggestions how one checks such claims? I've heard that soldiers have been known to lay it on a bit thick for pretty girls on occasion.)

Posted by trailing wife ">trailing wife 2008-08-13 05:27|| 2008-08-13 05:27|| Front Page Top

#6 there will have to be thought about admitting Georgia to NATO. Remember, we still dont know what the endgame on the ground is. The Sarko deal says return to status quo ante, but will Georgian as WELL as Russian peacekeepers return to SO as per '92 agreement? If not, maybe EU peacekeepers. The harder Russia plays it, the more we retaliate. Certainly rebuilding Georgia is the first order of business (and the key to avoid a counter-color revolution) and rebuilding their radar is a reasonable part of that. It lets the Georgians now we are still with them, it lets the Russians know they didnt win as much as they think, and it lets everyone else know that Saak and Georgian defiance survived.

Beyond, we need to revisit the Ukraine NATO membership. And suspend engagements with Russia. Now if Russia REALLY helps on Iran, we can renew relations with them, but we need ACTION from them, not just words.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-13 09:17|| 2008-08-13 09:17|| Front Page Top

#7 Actually, the U.S. can afford another Cold War. We're rich, remember? And we're expanding our military and updating our equipment anyway.

TW, y'all may want to look into buying one of those industrial base thingies the next time you're in Wal-Mart. We have a lot less of one now than we did back in the 80's.

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-13 09:31|| 2008-08-13 09:31|| Front Page Top

#8 nobody has the industrial base for a real war now. You dont make war with plastic toys and cheap clothes. And today, for the most part you dont make war with steel (that the Soviets are doing that in Senaki and Gori is just showing how backward they are)

You make war with silicon - with advanced electronics.

And most of the worlds production of RAM chips is - guess where - Taiwan.

Which would be devastated in the early stages of a real great power war (im assuming China is with the bad guys, cause otherwise it theyre not, and the bad guys are just the Russians well the bad guys really DONT have much chance, so you HAVE to spot them China)

Suddenly everyone would be scrambling around for chips.

"Im sorry sir, but we're confiscating your Xbox, we need to cannibalize the chips for new avionics"

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-13 09:35|| 2008-08-13 09:35|| Front Page Top

#9 so, whether we can afford a new cold war or not, depends on - you guys are NOT gonna like this, Im sorry - on DIPLOMACY and SOFT POWER.

Whether we are liked, rather than feared. In particular it depends on the extent to which the Chinese can be prevailed upon to relative neutrality, and the Germans to full allied solidarity.

The US and UK alone (or with Aussie and ISrael, neither of which has resources to spare for Eastern Europe) can NOT keep the Russians out the of the Ukraine, esp not if China is sympathetic to the Russians.

US and UK AND GERMANY AND FRANCE AND THE NORDICS AND ITALY AND CANADA probably can keep the Russians out of Ukraine, esp if the Chinese and various assorted immoral 3rd worlders can be prevailed on to see Russia as more of a threat than we are.

Who is more equipped to do this? The answer, my friends, is not obvious.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-13 09:41|| 2008-08-13 09:41|| Front Page Top

#10 And today, for the most part you dont make war with steel (that the Soviets are doing that in Senaki and Gori is just showing how backward they are)

It probably doesn't seem so backwards to the people they're killing.

Most of the parts a guided artillery shell are made out of are steel, as are most of the parts of the gun it's fired out of. A lot of the US smart bombs are just plain old crude steel dumb bombs with a steering unit screwed on where the fuse usually goes.

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-13 09:43|| 2008-08-13 09:43|| Front Page Top

#11 being killed with a knife is pretty bad too, or even with fists. Doesnt mean its the key to global power.

What proportion of the COST of a guided art shell is the steel?

Do you seriously think we will be constrained by absolute shortages of steel? Steel, even at current prices inflated by Chinese growth, is availble relatively cheaply compared to the costs of advanced mil technology - the Brazilians, the Indians, the South Koreans, lots of folks are happy to sell it.

Do you expect all those dudes to boycott the US? Do you expect the powerful Soviet Navy to blockade steel shipments from Brazil to the US?

Look at WW2. There were a number of key raw materials that we didnt produce - as long as we could get them from Latin America or Africa we were fine. What mattered was our production in the key cutting edge technologies of the time - which just happened to be tanks, prop powered aircraft, and carriers (to oversimplify)

The key techs of the time now are advanced techs, not the inputs easily available (and not just from China) on the world market. The biggest US vulnerability is NOT raw steel which can be procured from many sources - it really IS (AFAIK) the concentraion of production of several classes of chips on TaiWAN. The key to a national security industrial strategy would be to make sure we have production capacity for those items far more than steel, and certainly far more than textiles and clothing.

That doesnt help much with social dislocations from trade, but thats too bad.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-13 09:52|| 2008-08-13 09:52|| Front Page Top

#12 Chip fabrication plants are expensive and the industry works on razor-thin profit margins.

But setting up a chip fab is not rocket science and if need be we could do so quickly (assuming we got the enviros out of the way).

The critical element in any extended struggle isn't chip fabrication but chip design and software algorithms. It's our outsourcing of those areas that leave us vulnerable.

Posted by lotp 2008-08-13 09:56|| 2008-08-13 09:56|| Front Page Top

#13 OK, what I _do_ expect to constrain us...

From a conversation with Deacon Blues in the bb page here earlier this week:

"...besides, we don't do gel-spinning here any more, the gel-spinners were shipped to China a while back."

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-13 09:57|| 2008-08-13 09:57|| Front Page Top

#14 Yup - I should have included materials science / production too.

Posted by lotp 2008-08-13 09:57|| 2008-08-13 09:57|| Front Page Top

#15 Never going to happen. NATO is a failed alliance and now more closely resembles a country club group. Once Russia gets their hands on the pipeline, Western Europe will do almost anything Russia wants or the lights go out, since a good portion of energy (natural gas and oil) comes from Russia anyway. With the pipeline in Russian hands, they can bring the cities of Western Europe to a near standstill.
Russia is recreating her empire. She will go as far as she can without forcing a war with the west, and the west will let her go pretty darn far as the press and government is filled with Chamberlain like apologists. The one thing Russia can't afford is a large war against the West. At one time they could afford huge armies and huge losses, but no more. They are losing population fast, and at 142 million down from 147 million six years ago, and with most of their money coming from the West to buy energy, a big war would not be in their favor.
However, small wars against small countries that the West does not have the will to spill blood over is a different story. Increasing pressure on energy supplies to a growing West is also a good way to keep Russia flushed with energy dollars and able to develop, build and sell weapons to nations that will help keep the West off balance.
We may not be in a "Cold War" against Russia, but we are in a race for sure. A race for power and control. A race that we are really not running in and trying to win. Russia has a huge head start and can set themselves up to nicely control politics in Europe and the Middle East for the next 100 years if the West lets them.
The only question is, do we as a rich but politically lazy group let a tyrannical government control our destiny?

Posted by DarthVader 2008-08-13 09:59|| 2008-08-13 09:59|| Front Page Top

#16 In a hot war would be designing NEW chips?

I guess Im stuck in 80s assumptions that a hot war goes really fast (think "The Third World War" or even the Clancy book)

Yeah, in a hot war that went for more than a year, chip design would be important.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-13 10:00|| 2008-08-13 10:00|| Front Page Top

#17 Do you expect all those dudes to boycott the US? Do you expect the powerful Soviet Navy to blockade steel shipments from Brazil to the US?

It would take one Kilo-class sub to screw up half a dozen shiploads, and we don't really have the cushion anymore to provide military escort to even half of the goods we import.

Chavez has bought several Kilos. Just an example.

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-13 10:00|| 2008-08-13 10:00|| Front Page Top

#18 In a hot war would be designing NEW chips?

I guess Im stuck in 80s assumptions that a hot war goes really fast (think "The Third World War" or even the Clancy book)

Yeah, in a hot war that went for more than a year, chip design would be important.

Winning next year's short one-week hot war is kinda dependent on the chips designed last year.

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-13 10:02|| 2008-08-13 10:02|| Front Page Top

#19 its also getting confusing cause we are mixing hot war and cold war conditions.

In a cold war, what would China refuse to sell us? Its hard making analogies from the 1945-1989 cold war, cause then our adversaries and even relatively hostile neutrals (like India) were mainly closed economies. Or sellers of VERY non-strategic goods, like Cuba.

At the moment, I doubt that any DoD procurements would have any trouble getting items from the PRC. The moment the PRC DOES cut something off, they create a new industry for SOMEONE (either in the US, or in a more friendly LDC, depending on the cost structure)

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-13 10:04|| 2008-08-13 10:04|| Front Page Top

#20 Bush is going to speak in the Rose Garden within the hour according to Fox. Some big announcement? Or just more postureing?

Posted by Charles 2008-08-13 10:04|| 2008-08-13 10:04|| Front Page Top

#21 Oh, and the cost of decent _alloy_ steel has been going through the roof in the last couple of years.

(Just thinking of stuff like 4140, and stuff that isn't even made _here_ in quantity anymore like 6150 that I was trying to order for a side project).

It seems to go up every time I have to buy some more.

This has been a _MAJOR_ factor in the couple hundred million dollar cost overruns of at least one recent military project that I know of: both LCS prototypes.

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-13 10:05|| 2008-08-13 10:05|| Front Page Top

#22 Chavez does that, he goes down in days, while we put Ukraine on hold.

Same reason the Argentine fascists were never really a serious threat in '41-45

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-13 10:05|| 2008-08-13 10:05|| Front Page Top

#23 sG - many chips used in military systems are reprogrammable. Not all - there are chips whose performance requirements are such that it's worth hard-wiring functionality.

But many more are, if need be, reprogrammable with some effort.

Posted by lotp 2008-08-13 10:06|| 2008-08-13 10:06|| Front Page Top

#24 The moment the PRC DOES cut something off, they create a new industry for SOMEONE (either in the US, or in a more friendly LDC, depending on the cost structure)

And it would probably take a couple _years_ to get the ball rolling for that industry, during which time they could present us militarily with a lot of fait accompli.

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-13 10:07|| 2008-08-13 10:07|| Front Page Top

#25 "It would take one Kilo-class sub to screw up half a dozen shiploads, and we don't really have the cushion anymore to provide military escort to even half of the goods we import."

If all the shiploads were right near each other.

Oh and from UK experience in WW2, you dont need to have cover for all the goods you import in peacetime. In wartime you defer capital projects, and most luxuries to conserve shipping space.

I think if the russkie invade Ukraine, I will try to get more wear out of my t-shirts. Dont need to convoy cheap clothes from SE Asia.

And dont even need to convoy most steel - we can defer new bridges, etc.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-13 10:10|| 2008-08-13 10:10|| Front Page Top

#26 Chavez does that, he goes down in days, while we put Ukraine on hold.

How would we know? Is the sub going to surface and say "We are a Venezuelan sub attacking a Brazilian ore carrier" on the radio?

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-13 10:10|| 2008-08-13 10:10|| Front Page Top

#27 In WW2 though we also had much excess margin available. We hadn't cut up all the idle steel mills and shipped them overseas. Everything's Just In Time these days, and as a result it's a lot less resilient in a crisis.

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-13 10:12|| 2008-08-13 10:12|| Front Page Top

#28 "And it would probably take a couple _years_ to get the ball rolling for that industry, during which time they could present us militarily with a lot of fait accompli"

although the advance signalling of those fait accomplis would have negative strategic implications for them.

And how fast could they improve THEIR forces to do anything meaningful.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-13 10:12|| 2008-08-13 10:12|| Front Page Top

#29 "How would we know? Is the sub going to surface and say "We are a Venezuelan sub attacking a Brazilian ore carrier" on the radio?"

If its going to remain in communication with base, yes, effectively. Even if it remains in radio silence, we are presumably following it with Sats, and if its not a nuke sub,it does need to surface pretty often.

I dont know, you seem to be attributing to the Ven navy skills in comm, organization, targeting,etc that it took the Kreigsmarine quite a considerable time and effort and painful experience to learn.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-13 10:15|| 2008-08-13 10:15|| Front Page Top

#30 less margin available - in production yeah, but not in shipping. We didnt import or export nearly as much relative to GDP then.

Oh, and in a crisis, we could air freight the most valuable commodities.

BTW, re Venezuala - we have subs too, how long could Ven survive a blockade?

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-13 10:17|| 2008-08-13 10:17|| Front Page Top

#31 Yugo doesn't give a flying ____ about the Venezuelan people. They're already used to the poverty and he's getting them used to lines for milk already.

He doesn't have to worry about investment to keep production up in his oil sector because he just doesn't and it's worked for him so far.

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-13 10:28|| 2008-08-13 10:28|| Front Page Top

#32 And meanwhile while we'd be screwing around in Venezuela the blitzkrieg overseas would have another week or two.

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-13 10:30|| 2008-08-13 10:30|| Front Page Top

#33 I don't want to be rude but I have to go now and get a bunch of stuff done away from the net. I'll check back in this evening.

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-13 10:37|| 2008-08-13 10:37|| Front Page Top

#34 Darth, you've hit it. This is Putin's goal. An iron grip of energy supplies to Europe. When he controls that, he controls them. He's after the alternate pipeline. Also, he's been feeling much more powerful recently, with his coffers recharged. So, he's been looking for a place to exhibit some power. Bear has only been sleeping, not killed. You're also correct that declining population may be the largest limiting factor on future ambition. But he's sitting pretty now, money from nuke sales to Mullahs, money from arms sales everywhere, and gobs of cash from oil and gas. Things headed up for Russkies and down for Amerikanskies. Like I said, Putin is a realist and a good chess player. Anyone notice that the Siberian oil deposits may be the largest in the world, even surpassing Saoodis' ? This field appears to extend out under the Artic, which is why Putin is already making a move to lay claim to as much territory there as required.

Posted by Woozle Elmeter 2700 2008-08-13 11:11|| 2008-08-13 11:11|| Front Page Top

#35 TW: Somebody needs to remind your daughter's pen pal that he's a Ranger and not James Bond.

Send him a couple of these patches. He'll get the picture.

Posted by Classical_Liberal 2008-08-13 11:43|| 2008-08-13 11:43|| Front Page Top

#36 Talking about the "industrial base" needs some perspective. In the event of a major conflict, it is pretty much come as you are. New systems developments take 3 - 5 years minimum. As for chips, most military systems still require "milspec" chips which are very much specialty, low-availability items. Last statistic I saw said that the total annual consumption of electronic components by ALL the world militaries is less than 0.047% of the total annual sales of electronic components.

The real problem in a war would be how to maintain the systems we have as their components age and fail. Most of those components are no longer made and the newer versions of the components may not be usable. The Euros, Japanese, and Chinese have inflicted RoHS (Reduction of Hazardous Substances) upon us. Basically that means no lead or heavy metals in your components. Problem is that the chemistries of the new lead-free components are incompatible with existing systems - you really can't use a lead free part to repair a circuit board full of leaded (Pb) components. Because the commercial market is mostly for throw-away stuff, it is not an issue for them, but is driving the military crazy.

Posted by RWV 2008-08-13 14:12|| 2008-08-13 14:12|| Front Page Top

#37 superstitiousGalitizianer - which is why I say Chinese in Northern Greater Manchuria need to experience the same support from their mother country for their passports that Soviets do in South O.

Good enough?

Posted by 3dc 2008-08-13 16:35|| 2008-08-13 16:35|| Front Page Top

#38 NATO? Few member states made the Article 5 call after the Taliban/Al-Qaeda aggression. NATO is stocked with lame rhetoric bombs.

Posted by McZoid 2008-08-13 16:37|| 2008-08-13 16:37|| Front Page Top

#39 The thing about another cold war is the Soviet's had rhettoric that enticed a bunch of useful idiots and mystery about how poor and run down they really were. Those things are both mostly gone.

Posted by rjschwarz 2008-08-13 17:03|| 2008-08-13 17:03|| Front Page Top

#40 There isn't any steel shortage, just melt down those millions of empty shipping containers dumped everywhere, after that, start on auto Junkyards.

Posted by Redneck Jim">Redneck Jim 2008-08-13 18:19|| 2008-08-13 18:19|| Front Page Top

#41 Right up the butt of #41. I'm pretty sure they affect the grammar and spelling first.

Posted by eLarson 2008-08-13 20:29|| 2008-08-13 20:29|| Front Page Top

#42 Oh, thanks Mods. Thanks a lot. Whatever happened to the sherrif, pic?

Posted by eLarson 2008-08-13 20:35|| 2008-08-13 20:35|| Front Page Top

#43 I'm dealing with them another way until Fred is freed up.

Posted by lotp 2008-08-13 20:38|| 2008-08-13 20:38|| Front Page Top

#44 Another thing that is different is that most cargo type ships coming to the US are flagged as Liberian and or Panamanian, not American. So either the non-essential goods will still come in, or someone would have a lot of trouble in the UN for picking on neutrals.

Ships would just go into Canada or Mexico and product would come in by train. It's a different world and I don't think you can seal off the US. There is too much money to be made trading with us.

Posted by rjschwarz 2008-08-13 21:09|| 2008-08-13 21:09|| Front Page Top

#45 I happen to be fairly knowledgable about the "Chip war" scenario. Here in Colorado Springs, we have about a dozen chip production facilities (FABs) sitting empty, or doing minimal work. They could be fully functional in about a month, putting out chips. Production initially would be slow, but would grow expontentially as the people became more familiar with the equipment and processes. In three months, there would be no shortage of ANY chip the military or civilian economy can't get elsewhere. Templates are on file for every chip designed or used in the United States. Right now, most of those chips are made more cheaply elsewhere, but the CAPABILITY remains intact here in the US.

Posted by Old Patriot">Old Patriot 2008-08-13 21:11|| http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/]">[http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/] 2008-08-13 21:11|| Front Page Top

23:43 FOTSGreg
23:35 Correction
23:33 JosephMendiola
23:29 Correction
23:28 rjschwarz
23:23 Halliburton - Blogosphere Welcome Division
23:23 Jiggs Chiter5628
23:20 JosephMendiola
23:17 Correction
23:12 3dc
23:11 tipover
23:02 Steve White
22:56 Classical_Liberal
22:55 Correction
22:36 Halliburton - Asymmetrical Reply Division
22:35 crosspatch
22:33 McZoid
22:30 Hupusong Hatfield aka Broadhead6
22:30 Besoeker
22:23 Hupusong Hatfield aka Broadhead6
22:22 McZoid
22:21 USN,Ret.
22:18 lotp
22:18 Halliburton - Asymmetrical Reply Division