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2008-08-12 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

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Posted by john frum 2008-08-12 12:29|| || Front Page|| [11129 views ] Top

#1 John thanks for posting this. Spengler elucidates just what I would have said were I as capable. He's got the take on Puty just right. When he went to the ranch in Texas, he knew Bush was a sucker. When he met Rice, he could barely contain his mirth and derision. When he went to Kennebunkport, he realized there were two numbskulls in the family. I thought Putin would act on Kosovo, but he kept his powder dry. But on the borders of Russia, he has no reservations. All the hot air expended here, does not understand nor appreciate Russian nationalism. It existed long before the commies appeared, and it beats strong in every Russian heart. Putin deals in realities as they exist, not banalities and horseshit like the fogheads in the EU. I used to be fluent in Russian and have read scores of their novels, papers, etc. Can't do it well now, as I'm out of practice, but I have gained an understanding of their thinking over literally centuries. It hasn't changed.

Posted by Woozle Elmeter 2700 2008-08-12 12:50|| 2008-08-12 12:50|| Front Page Top

#2 I disagree profoundly with the above, among other things its false comparison to Kosovo, its misreadign of the strategic import of what happened in Georgia, its incorrect belief that this is over and Russia will not pay a cost. I dont have time to respond in detail.

I will point out one glaring inaccuracy. He says we went into Kosovo to save Muslim Albanians from being ethnically cleansed.

That is false. We went in to keep Albanians from being ethnically cleansed. Period. The Serb ethnic cleansing campaign did NOT make a distinction between muslim Albanians, Christian Albanians, or atheist Albanians. The implication that it did, repeated ad nauseum, is part of an ex post propaganda campaign to paint the Albanians as Jihadis and to make the Serb campaign of ethnic cleansing appear as somehow part of the war on terror.

Given an error of that magnitude, and one so in keeping with a certain mindset, I dont think theres any need to respond in more detail, or to give the quotes which span from Joe Biden and the editorial pages of the WaPo and NYT to Victor Davis Hanson and Michael Ledeen and the Weekly Standard, to show why this is a profound misreading.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-12 13:08|| 2008-08-12 13:08|| Front Page Top

#3 WS - aggressive tyrants always look clever on the way up. Bonaparte did, Hitler did, Slobo and Saddam did. Its only after theyre dead that we see what failures they were.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-12 13:11|| 2008-08-12 13:11|| Front Page Top

#4 WE: All the hot air expended here, does not understand nor appreciate Russian nationalism.

Actually, I fully understand the Imperial Russian mentality. The only question here is whether the Russians think they have the leeway to annex Georgia. Spengler's compatriot, Putin, may find that having bombers approach foreign coasts and fleets is one thing, but actually attacking them is quite another.

The problem for Russia today is that China is economically resurgent with serious territorial claims against Russia and its buffer state (against China) Mongolia. Today, China's economy is almost three times the size of Russia's economy. In twenty years, Russia's economy might be a fifth of China's economy, given the fact that Russia is a natural resource extraction economy not unlike Saudi Arabia's - with limited growth prospects except as it relates to commodity price and demand rises. Assuming Chinese defense spending remains on its present growth rate, I would expect China to have more nukes than Russia by then - and perhaps a missile defense system. The real problem for Russia is how they will hang on to their Far Eastern provinces. Perhaps Putin's strategy is the one that the Turks and Huns on China's western borders (then much more constricted than today) adopted in antiquity - flee Chinese military power and attack Europe.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2008-08-12 13:21|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2008-08-12 13:21|| Front Page Top

#5 Spengler hits the spot on occasion, but misfires just as often. His take on Kosovo is wrong. Michael Totten went to Kosovo and reported on what he saw. And what he saw was like no other Muslim country he's ever been - in a good way - not Turkey, not Iraq, not Lebanon, etc. Besides Uncle Sam did not go to Kosovo to annex it - he went there to set it free. The Russians are looking to annex* South Ossetia and Abkhazia, not set them free. The correct comparison is to the German annexation of the Sudetenland, not Kosovo.

* Putin can prove me wrong by having them declare independence and apply for UN membership, while stationing Russian troops inside to protect them from Georgia. But then again, that would defeat the point of Russian intervention, which was to annex them to Imperial Russia.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2008-08-12 13:35|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2008-08-12 13:35|| Front Page Top

#6 WS - aggressive tyrants always look clever on the way up. Bonaparte did, Hitler did, Slobo and Saddam did. Its only after theyre dead that we see what failures they were.

Why are you lumping the emperor in with all of those madmen? He could become both a bulwark against the Islamofascists _and_ a great help in rejuvenating France out of its current stupor and putting it back on the path towards its former glory, if only the British would stop repeating these lies that he died in exile and let him return.

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-12 13:42|| 2008-08-12 13:42|| Front Page Top

#7 "You have balls, I like balls".

-Terrorist From Durka-Durkastan-
-Team America-

Posted by bigjim-ky 2008-08-12 13:45|| 2008-08-12 13:45|| Front Page Top

#8 Excellent quotes from a Journal article:

George F. Kennan, the diplomat and historian, had it right. To him is attributed a very apropos aphorism: "Russia can have at its borders only vassals or enemies."

But the issue runs a lot deeper as of 8/8: What are Russia's borders? Will it be satisfied with Georgia? As Prince Gorchakov, Russian chancellor, put it in 1864, in the midst of the Russian conquest of the Caucasus: "The greatest difficulty is to know when to stop."

Posted by Zhang Fei 2008-08-12 13:57|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2008-08-12 13:57|| Front Page Top

#9 And to the above might be added - Russian vassals traditionally end up becoming Russian provinces (much like Chinese vassals end up becoming Chinese provinces). Are we ready to acquiesce to an ever-expanding Imperial Russia?

Posted by Zhang Fei 2008-08-12 13:59|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2008-08-12 13:59|| Front Page Top

#10 Saakashvili still in power.

Poland and US reach agreement on missiles.

Russia out of G8.

Russia no entry to WTO.

Putin, smart man, not.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-12 14:21|| 2008-08-12 14:21|| Front Page Top

#11 "US and Poland agree on missles."

Will Russia invade Poland next?

Posted by DK70 the Scantily Clad7177 2008-08-12 15:30|| 2008-08-12 15:30|| Front Page Top

#12 Zoia Aprasidze, another woman who fled, said not enough attention was being paid to the plight of villagers in Abkhazia while most of the media and political focus was on places like the city of Gori, which became a target of heavy Russian bombardment after Georgia launched an assault on another separatist region, South Ossetia.

"We don't know what's going on and why the Russians did this to us. They said they were defending Ossetians. Who are they defending here?" she said. "If the Russians say they're defending the civilian population, why don't they care about Kodori Gorge?"

that this is about the South Ossetians is a lie. A bald faced lie.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-12 15:36|| 2008-08-12 15:36|| Front Page Top

#13 In January I urged Americans to draft the Russian leader to succeed George W Bush (Putin for president of the United States, January 8, 2008).

Because Americans like being an expansionist imperial power.

Spengler may be good at relating the twists and turns that led to the present situation, but he really needs to re-read deTocqueville, this time striving manfully to grasp how Americans differ from whatever he is, and how that influences our national choices at home and abroad.

Posted by trailing wife ">trailing wife 2008-08-12 15:50|| 2008-08-12 15:50|| Front Page Top

#14 "Spengler may be good at relating the twists and turns that led to the present situation"

I see no particular evidence that this is in fact the case.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-12 15:54|| 2008-08-12 15:54|| Front Page Top

#15 Georgia on my mind... This little country has juiced up the loyal readers of this blog like nothing else I've seen. Hold on a sec while I make some more popcorn.

Posted by Richard of Oregon 2008-08-12 16:00|| 2008-08-12 16:00|| Front Page Top

#16 We now return you to the days of "Holy Mother Russia and all the little russias!"

Posted by borgboy 2008-08-12 16:50|| 2008-08-12 16:50|| Front Page Top

#17 Of the 19th century 'pan' movements, the Pan-Germanic one was killed in the smoldering ruins of 1945 at great cost. The Pan-Slavic movement is still among us and will create further pain and suffering because it won't go away without a similar payment in human sacrifice.

The best long term plan would be to start talking up the greatness of the Yuan Dynasty and its historical claims to borders and territories, to include the Golden Horde.

Posted by Procopius2k 2008-08-12 17:02|| 2008-08-12 17:02|| Front Page Top

#18 Actually the Chinese claim to Tibet is based on the Tibetan tribute paid to the Mongols and the Manchu (who also ruled China).

A bit like the US claiming India, since both were ruled by the British

Posted by john frum 2008-08-12 17:07|| 2008-08-12 17:07|| Front Page Top

#19 JF: Actually the Chinese claim to Tibet is based on the Tibetan tribute paid to the Mongols and the Manchu (who also ruled China).

A bit like the US claiming India, since both were ruled by the British

It goes beyond that. Han Chinese consider China the successor state to the Qing empire, since the Han do control the rump Manchu state in what is now Northeast China (which was formerly Manchukuo under Japanese rule for a while). I suppose the US or India might have a plausible claim to the British empire if they had overrun the British Isles.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2008-08-12 19:55|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2008-08-12 19:55|| Front Page Top

#20 MILPOL DIALECTICISM-PRAGMATISM > NOT WINNING = NOT LOSING. We should consider that the RUSSIAN BEAR may be attempting to carve out a place of slumber recuper + security inside the PAN-EURO CAVE IN CASE OF FUTURE COLLAPSE AND DEFEAT AGZ THE CHINESE DRAGON + NUKULAR ISLAMIST CAMEL/HORSE-ZILLA IN ASIA. When any large animal lays down to sleep and slumber, smaller animals have to get out of the way or get crushed in the mass, correct??? IOW, RUSSIA MAY BE CLEARING OUT ITS "BACK 40" ON THE POTENTIAL FUTURE DAY IT MAY NEED TO DE FACTO JOIN AND INTEGRATE WID EUROPE IN ITS OWN SELF-DEFENSE AND NATIONAL PRESERVATION???

KEEP BUYING THAT POPCORN, PEOPLE!

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-08-12 21:39|| 2008-08-12 21:39|| Front Page Top

#21 What Russia wants is control of access to Caspian Basin oil and gas. To that end they will retain control of a slice of Georgia, probably along the coast. Using Ajaria as a pretext

Posted by phil_b 2008-08-12 23:08|| 2008-08-12 23:08|| Front Page Top

#22 Phil, Ajaria, don't think so. They may try to stir it, but it would not help much going in, the cost/benefit ratio would not be that desirable and it may make Turks too edgy.

Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-12 23:35|| 2008-08-12 23:35|| Front Page Top

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