Article

2008-08-08 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

Georgia surrounds rebel capital. Russia sends in tanks, warplanes

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Posted by 3dc 2008-08-08 03:13|| || Front Page|| [11133 views ] Top

#1 latest is Georgia claims to have shot down 2 Russian planes.

Posted by phil_b 2008-08-08 09:04|| 2008-08-08 09:04|| Front Page Top

#2 Fox news clips shows what looks like all-out war

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2008-08-08 09:56|| 2008-08-08 09:56|| Front Page Top

#3 Russia sent in tanks:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080808/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_south_ossetia

This has the potential to get reeeealll ugly, real fast.

Posted by DarthVader 2008-08-08 10:03|| 2008-08-08 10:03|| Front Page Top

#4 Im hearing basically 1 MRD, 1Mech and an armored divsion, along with Corps elements and an avaiation front are set on the Russian side. Thats some serious business going on there if true.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-08 10:27|| 2008-08-08 10:27|| Front Page Top

#5 Are any American trainers still in Georgia?

Posted by Danielle 2008-08-08 10:55|| 2008-08-08 10:55|| Front Page Top

#6 High mountains along the border with a single road/tunnel across the border. Georgian troops in established positions within a few Ks of the road from the border to the main city. Russia risks having its forces trapped and/or attacked while in convoy. I don't like Russia's chances.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:SO2.jpg

Posted by phil_b 2008-08-08 11:09|| 2008-08-08 11:09|| Front Page Top

#7 A Russian armored corps in South Ossetia is basically a bloody scrapheap waiting to happen, if it gets hot enough & the Georgians are stubborn enough about facing down the bear. Have you *looked* at the aerial imagery of that province? There's one road across the border to the capital, and it's at the bottom of a hellacious mountain gorge. The Georgians don't even have to occupy it, they can just bring it under artillery interdiction.

I've never understood the attraction of South Ossetia to the Russian elites. Abkhazia at least has a port. What, they don't have enough mafia-infested, economically depressed shitholes on their side of the Caucasus?

Posted by Mitch H.">Mitch H. 2008-08-08 11:20|| http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/]">[http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/] 2008-08-08 11:20|| Front Page Top

#8 Does anyone know what kind of weaponry Georgia has?

Posted by DoDo 2008-08-08 11:40|| 2008-08-08 11:40|| Front Page Top

#9 T-55s, T-72s
Mostly older Russian stuff.

Posted by DarthVader 2008-08-08 11:42|| 2008-08-08 11:42|| Front Page Top

#10 They do/did have US trainers and adisors. ANd they have plenty of tactical rockets. Combine that with the narrow points...

Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-08 11:53|| 2008-08-08 11:53|| Front Page Top

#11 They've invested heavily in newer model T-72s in the last five years, according to Global Security, and reversed a planned reduction in manpower. They probably have as many tanks available as the Russian force which is picking its way down that precarious mountain road to Tskhinvali. If not as shiny-new as whatever the 58th Army is fielding.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Georgians don't have American anti-tank weaponry of some sort in their armories - we've been training them for years. In that sort of terrain, it's going to be beastly for tankers.

I'm kind of surprised that the Georgians have as many tanks as they do in their inventory. They've got more armor than I would have expected for a small army (~24,000) in a mountainous country.

Posted by Mitch H.">Mitch H. 2008-08-08 11:55|| http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/]">[http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/] 2008-08-08 11:55|| Front Page Top

#12 If the Russians really get serious, they'll just rocket/bomb Tblisi into rubble.

Posted by mrp 2008-08-08 12:15|| 2008-08-08 12:15|| Front Page Top

#13 or invade Georgia proper.

Posted by john frum 2008-08-08 12:25|| 2008-08-08 12:25|| Front Page Top

#14 There's an oil pipeline in the region. Let's hope they don't invade Georgia proper.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan_pipeline

Posted by Harcourt Glaith4128 2008-08-08 12:38|| 2008-08-08 12:38|| Front Page Top

#15 As of noon the oil traders haven't noticed that a major oil-producing nation invaded the lynch-pin on a major pipeline. Oil's still down three-and-a-half bucks.

Posted by Mitch H.">Mitch H. 2008-08-08 12:41|| http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/]">[http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/] 2008-08-08 12:41|| Front Page Top

#16 There is no oil flowing through that pipeline at the moment. The PKK blew it up last week.

Posted by phil_b 2008-08-08 12:43|| 2008-08-08 12:43|| Front Page Top

#17
DEBKAfiles geopolitical experts note that on the surface level, the Russians are backing the separatists of S. Ossetia and neighboring Abkhazia as payback for the strengthening of American influence in tiny Georgia and its 4.5 million inhabitants. However, more immediately, the conflict has been sparked by the race for control over the pipelines carrying oil and gas out of the Caspian region.

The Russians may just bear with the pro-US Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvilis ambition to bring his country into NATO. But they draw a heavy line against his plans and those of Western oil companies, including Israeli firms, to route the oil routes from Azerbaijan and the gas lines from Turkmenistan, which transit Georgia, through Turkey instead of hooking them up to Russian pipelines.

Saakashvili need only back away from this plan for Moscow to ditch the two provinces revolt against Tbilisi. As long as he sticks to his guns, South Ossetia and Abkhazia will wage separatist wars.

DEBKAfile discloses Israels interest in the conflict from its exclusive military sources:

Jerusalem owns a strong interest in Caspian oil and gas pipelines reach the Turkish terminal port of Ceyhan, rather than the Russian network. Intense negotiations are afoot between Israel Turkey, Georgia, Turkmenistan and Azarbaijan for pipelines to reach Turkey and thence to Israels oil terminal at Ashkelon and on to its Red Sea port of Eilat. From there, supertankers can carry the gas and oil to the Far East through the Indian Ocean.

Aware of Moscows sensitivity on the oil question, Israel offered Russia a stake in the project but was rejected.

Last year, the Georgian president commissioned from private Israeli security firms several hundred military advisers, estimated at up to 1,000, to train the Georgian armed forces in commando, air, sea, armored and artillery combat tactics. They also offer instruction on military intelligence and security for the central regime. Tbilisi also purchased weapons, intelligence and electronic warfare systems from Israel.

These advisers were undoubtedly deeply involved in the Georgian armys preparations to conquer the South Ossetian capital Friday.

In recent weeks, Moscow has repeatedly demanded that Jerusalem halt its military assistance to Georgia, finally threatening a crisis in bilateral relations. Israel responded by saying that the only assistance rendered Tbilisi was defensive.

This has not gone down well in the Kremlin. Therefore, as the military crisis intensifies in South Ossetia, Moscow may be expected to punish Israel for its intervention.

Posted by 3dc 2008-08-08 13:05|| 2008-08-08 13:05|| Front Page Top

#18 Okay, a little devil's advocacy here.

How is Russia's move to SO any different than NATOs move into Kosovo?

Posted by AlanC 2008-08-08 13:26|| 2008-08-08 13:26|| Front Page Top

#19 Maybe now would be a good time for the AF to push for more F-22s.

Posted by mrp 2008-08-08 13:34|| 2008-08-08 13:34|| Front Page Top

#20 Perhaps Old Spook and Badanov could model this scenario in their war game engine and tell us how it turns out ...

Posted by Steve White 2008-08-08 13:48|| 2008-08-08 13:48|| Front Page Top

#21 #5, #10 there about 800 DOD personal in Georgia and Abkhazia as late as 2 months ago.
There's also been talk of an u.s. airbase in Georgia.

Posted by linker 2008-08-08 13:48|| 2008-08-08 13:48|| Front Page Top

#22 About a million refugees flooding all of South Ossetia's neighbors? The fact that NATO didn't have a string of Kosovos on every other border - Abkhazia, Transdienstria, the bullying of Ukraine and Estonia, etc? The fact that NATO hadn't spent the previous decade leveling, oh say, Sarajevo with massed artillery fire?

We're talking about a province with less than five thousand ethnic Russians and maybe twenty-five thousand Ossetians. It isn't exactly the Sudetenland, let alone Krajina.

And Russia's "peacekeepers" would be more credible if the troops weren't exclusively next-door neighbors. It's as if KFOR was staffed entirely by Albanian nationals.

Posted by Mitch H.">Mitch H. 2008-08-08 13:58|| http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/]">[http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/] 2008-08-08 13:58|| Front Page Top

#23 No f-22's needed. Just give theit arty FASCAM (MLRS delivery would do the trick) and a pile of TOW missiles.

That narrow single road for resupply is a tactical nightmare, and a strategic choke point.

Just a single MCLC would be enough to stopper things tight for a while.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-08 14:00|| 2008-08-08 14:00|| Front Page Top

#24 ALanC wrote: "How is Russia's move to SO any different than NATOs move into Kosovo?"

NATO's move into Kosovo was to prevent another round of ethnic cleansing in that region.
Georgia, as far as I'm aware, wasn't planning on doing any such thing.

Posted by Harcourt Glaith4128 2008-08-08 14:00|| 2008-08-08 14:00|| Front Page Top

#25 How is Russia's move to SO any different than NATOs move into Kosovo?

Neither Uncle Sam nor any other member of NATO is about to annex Kosovo. South Ossetia will probably become a Russian province, once the Russians gain control of it. NATO members were disinterested observers with respect to Kosovo, from a territorial standpoint. Russia isn't one, in the case of South Ossetia. The true historical analog is to the Soviet attempt to annex Iran's Azerbaijan province in 1946 - Uncle Joe backed down after Truman promised Iran full support.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2008-08-08 14:07|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2008-08-08 14:07|| Front Page Top

#26 According to report from Fox this morning, they were reporting that the American troops left a few days ago.

Also just heard on the radio, that Georgia is pulling it's troops from Iraq -- apparently, they think they are gonna need them.

Posted by Sherry">Sherry 2008-08-08 14:13|| 2008-08-08 14:13|| Front Page Top

#27 Don't forget the Devil's Advocate part of my question 'kay?

Now, as far as that goes; SO is a breakaway province of Georgia like Kosovo was a breakaway from Serbia.

NATO presumed to help the separatists; Russia is presuming to help the separatists.

Granted the motivational differences it's still a case of a third party invading to support a revolutionary movement.

Either this is always bad; or always good; OR we have to admit that there is no principle involved but that each case is different.

You have to be careful that your principles don't back you into a corner such as having to support Saddam cause your principle denies any right at anytime to invade. Also known as hoist on one's own petard.

Personally I hope Georgia manages to survive but I fear the Russians are back to their old evil ways. Is Georigia this decades Afghanistan for Russia?

Posted by AlanC 2008-08-08 14:23|| 2008-08-08 14:23|| Front Page Top

#28 According to Sky News:

Georgia has 26,900 troops, Russia has 641,000.
Georgia has 82 tanks, Russia has 6,717.
Georgia has 7 combat aircraft, Russia has 1,200.

Posted by Nero Omith1484 2008-08-08 15:35|| 2008-08-08 15:35|| Front Page Top

#29 Now, as far as that goes; SO is a breakaway province of Georgia like Kosovo was a breakaway from Serbia.

That's wrong. SO is a breakaway province of Georgia like Austria or the Sudetenland were breakaway provinces of Germany.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2008-08-08 15:39|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2008-08-08 15:39|| Front Page Top

#30 So, let's just sit back and let the Euros handle it. They're so more nuanced in these matters. /sarcasm off.

Wonder if they're checking their shorts in the capitals over there today? It was fun making hay of pillaring the US for the last 8+ years when they thought the 'old days' were over. Maybe the Nobel committee can give their trinket to Puty this year for 'restoring' peace through conquest.

Posted by Procopius2k 2008-08-08 16:06|| 2008-08-08 16:06|| Front Page Top

#31 That doesn't scan right, either, Zhang. It's a rebellious province which is demographically distinct from the rest of a country based on nationality. It isn't very much like the Kosovo situation, because religion isn't a factor, but it's a closer analogy than, say, Austria. Unless Russia's the Germany in this situation.

And that forces comparison of Georgia & Russia looks outdated, Nero. Georgia has a significant National Guard which they're mobilizing, and they have twice as many tanks as what Sky has listed. See here.

Posted by Mitch H.">Mitch H. 2008-08-08 16:15|| http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/]">[http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/] 2008-08-08 16:15|| Front Page Top

#32 PhilB #6: Russia said it's already at Tskhinvali, so where is the choke-point mentioned by you? I'm trying to find it on the map, but the only one-road area I see is a spot that has supposedly already been passed.

Posted by Charles 2008-08-08 16:16|| 2008-08-08 16:16|| Front Page Top

#33 Charles: The head of the road is in Tskhinvali, but the interdictable section is up by the border. It's not a big province, it probably could take a battalion of armor an hour or an hour-and-a-half to get from the border to Tskhinvali.

But it won't help the 58th Army to be in Tskhinvali if their lines of communication are cut back on the border. It just means they're exposed as hell if the Georgians can get cross-country in their rear onto that road - at Vaneli, I would imagine. See this map.

Georgia is a mountain country, and surrounded on every side by imposing crags. If the American advisers haven't been emphasizing cross-country mountain infantry training, then somebody needs to be sacked.

Posted by Mitch H.">Mitch H. 2008-08-08 16:30|| http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/]">[http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/] 2008-08-08 16:30|| Front Page Top

#34 Bad news from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline - an installation that may not normally draw much of your attention, but which is a throbbing artery of global energy supply, carrying vital oil supplies from Central Asia towards a tanker terminal on the Turkish coast. On some remote, sun-baked plain of Anatolia, an explosion sparked a fire earlier this week, temporarily cutting the flow through the pipeline.

So - Premeditation on the part of Russia?
Sort of like AQ killing the Lion?

Posted by 3dc 2008-08-08 17:02|| 2008-08-08 17:02|| Front Page Top

#35 GlobalSecurity on Georgia Military

Posted by 3dc 2008-08-08 17:34|| 2008-08-08 17:34|| Front Page Top

#36 BBC just reported that Russian jets have bombed several targets in Georgia (not South Ossetia), including a port. Martial law imminent in Georgia.

Posted by Javique White1781 2008-08-08 17:54|| 2008-08-08 17:54|| Front Page Top

#37 You people really need to access "Atlas Shrugs" before you defend the Kosovo and Bosnia rat-holes. If you haven't taken the time to read the imperialist "Islamic Declaration" of 1970, then you are guilty of wilfull blindness to Muslim designs for the Balkans. Serbs read that document and chose to pre-empt ethnic cleansing, with ethnic cleansing. For your own security: devalue Muslim life. Islam is a global plague that needs to be wiped out. Their pseudo-pundit defenders are their dhimmis (Arabic for useful idiot).

Russia: concentrate your pre-emptive defense policies on the real enemy.

Posted by Ebbineth Prince of the Hatfields4375 2008-08-08 18:06|| 2008-08-08 18:06|| Front Page Top

#38 Charles, go to Roki tunnel in Google Earth and follow the road south. I'm no military strategist, but even I can see it would take a lot of infantry to secure that road.

If Russia is going to escalate they will come through Abkhazia into Georgia.

The topography is the opposite of Chechnya. You have to get through the mountains to reach the lowlands.

Posted by phil_b 2008-08-08 18:54|| 2008-08-08 18:54|| Front Page Top

#39 from a link in a comment on BelmontClub....
Atlantic: Smuggling weapons-grade uranium - South Ossetia

Posted by 3dc 2008-08-08 18:54|| 2008-08-08 18:54|| Front Page Top

#40 Lets see, you little would-be genocidal maniac... ets walk your words back 70 years...

You people really need to access "Mein Kampf" before you defend the Polish and French rat-holes. If you haven't taken the time to read the imperialist "Priories of Zion", then you are guilty of wilfull blindness to Jewish designs for Europe. Germans read that document and chose to pre-empt ethnic cleansing, with ethnic cleansing. For your own security: devalue Jewish life. Judiasm is a global plague that needs to be wiped out. Their pseudo-pundit defenders are their goyim kurva (Yiddish for useful whores).

F**k you and the pestilent hate-filled nazi shithole you were bred from.

We are better than that.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-08 18:57|| 2008-08-08 18:57|| Front Page Top

#41 This map shows a Georgian security zone cutting the road 30Ks north of Tshinvali. Which makes me sceptical Russian armor has actually travelled down that road.

Posted by phil_b 2008-08-08 19:08|| 2008-08-08 19:08|| Front Page Top

#42 Give them a MCLC at the Roki tunnel, and the Russians are out of red-ball roads and out of supply.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-08 19:13|| 2008-08-08 19:13|| Front Page Top

#43 Georgia has 26,900 troops, Russia has 641,000.
Georgia has 82 tanks, Russia has 6,717.
Georgia has 7 combat aircraft, Russia has 1,200.

Fully mobilized I seriously doubt the Russians have more than 100,00 combatants total in this fight. A standard Russian army like the 58th Army is less than 30,000 guys getting shot at.

The whole of the Russian Transsaucusus Front, the main parent unit of the now active Russian 58th Army, total has less than 300,00 combatants under arms. Also, most of the units in the 58th Army the main operational component for the Russian Army were Category II or less, meaning whatever is in the field fighting are mainly fillers.

Reports I heard there were about 150 armor vehicles total which translates into roughly a brigade sized element, likely the only unit of any size so far mobilized

Expect Russian casualties regardless of their success against Georgia to be frightfully high.
Russians love their armor units and have yet to re-learn the value of light infantry in close country like the Transcaucusus.

What I saw in filmed reports is that a lot of their dismounted infantry wearing garrison caps and do-rags. 24 hours in good sniper country would cure that you would think except that that is how the Russian Army operated during the worst of the Chechen War.

Pity the PBI.

Watching film on TV today I saw a wide spread of Russian equipment including MT-LBs, BMP-1s and 72BM1s, T-80UMs, BMD1s, 2S3s ( 152mm SP artilery ) and MI-24s.

Not top of the line equipment, so my conclusion is that these are not Russian line units participating in this operation.

Russian doctrine regarding use of armor in mountainous regions is pretty straightforward. Emphasis will be on controlling urban areas, roads and mountain passes, and yes they will send in armor in area you would think light infantry would suffice.

Posted by badanov 2008-08-08 19:28|| http://www.freefirezone.org]">[http://www.freefirezone.org] 2008-08-08 19:28|| Front Page Top

#44 'If Russia is going to escalate they will come through Abkhazia into Georgia.' phil_b #38

found this

The Georgian Times

Abkhazia Deploys Troops at Border

At 6am on August 8 Abkhaz forces, including artillery systems and multiple rocket launchers started heading from Ochamchire district to the administrative border at the Enguri river, Interfax news agency reported.

Earlier on August 8, following the after midnight session of the Abkhaz national security council, Sergey Bagapsh, the Abkhaz leader, told Interfax that the decision was taken to reinforce the Abkhaz border amid clashes in South Ossetia.

Area across the administrative border is a security zone, according to the 1994 Moscow ceasefire agreement, which bans presence of heavy military equipment within the zone.
Civil Georgia
2008.08.08 07:42

Posted by linker 2008-08-08 19:48|| 2008-08-08 19:48|| Front Page Top

#45 See KOMMERSANT for various news threads > seems RUSSIA HAS WARNED WEST/NATO ABOUT FURTHER SUPPORT OF GEORGIA, to include blaming the West for "mighty propagnada support" + giving Georgia a green light = A-OKAY to conduct a military operation agz South Ossetia. EU > in turn, has DEMANDED AN END TO FIGHTING + RUSS INCURSION.

Also from KOMMERSANT > Russia has accused Georgia of deliber killing or murdering wounded Russian Peacekeepers during a takeover + engaging in local "ethnic cleansing" [War Crimes]???

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-08-08 21:25|| 2008-08-08 21:25|| Front Page Top

#46 REDDIT > GUARDIAN.UK - GEORGIAN PRESIDENT ASKS FOR US HELP [Intervention] AGZ RUSSIA; + RUSSIATODAY.RU > GEORGIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA AT WAR: WILL NATO ABSORB GEORGIA AND UNLEASH A WIDER WAR [agz RUSSIA]???

US sending an Envoy.

TOPIX > GEORGIA ASKS US, NATO FOR DIPLOMATIC AND MILITARY ASSISTANCE AGZ RUSSIAN ATTACK.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-08-08 22:17|| 2008-08-08 22:17|| Front Page Top

#47 DEFENSETECH.org > GEORGIA VS. RUSSIA > POSTER claims that Russia is CUTTING OFF THE WESTERN AIR ROUTE INTO AFGHANISTAN, and also argues that after Russ suborns Georgia AZERBAIJAN may be next on the Russ agenda??? IOW, RUSSIA NEEDS TO ASSURE US FAILURE OR CONTAINMENT IN PAKISTAN-AFGHAN VV ISLAMIST MILITANTS???

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-08-08 22:29|| 2008-08-08 22:29|| Front Page Top

#48 INTERFAX > ZHIRINOVSKY: ABKHAZIA, SOUTH OSSETIA SHOULD BE INDEPENDENT + ABKHAZIA: GEORGIA BUILDING UP MILITARY MIGHT ALONG ITS BORDERS + ABKHAZIA SENDING MILITARY FORMATIONS TO BORDER WITH GEORGIA.

Also from SAME > ARMENIA: NAGORNO-KARABAKH SHOULD BE PART OF ANY CONFLICT SETTLEMENT PROCESS.

* TOPIX > AZERBAIJAN MAY REQUEST RUSSIAN MILITARY ASSISTANCE IFF GEORGIA-SOUTH OSSETIA WAR SPREADS.

Looks like VLADVEDEV = RUSSIA is all but formally demanding to be attacked and conquered by Radical Islam???

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-08-08 23:28|| 2008-08-08 23:28|| Front Page Top

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