Article

2006-08-02 Israel-Palestine-Jordan

The Danger in Lebanon - Krauthammer - written April 2002

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Posted by Sherry 2006-08-02 00:44|| || Front Page|| [11138 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Opps -- I did it again! Needs to be moved, please Mods. Thanks for being so understanding!

Posted by Sherry">Sherry 2006-08-02 01:00|| 2006-08-02 01:00|| Front Page Top

#2 Eh, it's relevant to today's ops. I'll leave it here.

Posted by Seafarious">Seafarious 2006-08-02 01:06|| 2006-08-02 01:06|| Front Page Top

#3 Sherry two slaps on the cheek by the mods.

BTW: Good find! Krauthammer does it again

Posted by Captain America 2006-08-02 01:37|| 2006-08-02 01:37|| Front Page Top

#4 The mods must like you better. My stuff always ends up in the scrap bin.

Posted by Captain America 2006-08-02 01:39|| 2006-08-02 01:39|| Front Page Top

#5 "So much for all these media folks crying about US and Israel intel not knowing about all these Katyusha rockets! Somehow, Krauthammer knew!"

Everyone that mattered knew and it had been widely reported for a long time. This notion that the number of rockets was unknown and some kind of intelligence failure is just so much propaganda.

Posted by crosspatch">crosspatch 2006-08-02 03:09|| http://crosspatch.townhall.com]">[http://crosspatch.townhall.com] 2006-08-02 03:09|| Front Page Top

#6 Good find Sherry. Best analysis I've read, even though written 4 years ago.

Posted by phil_b">phil_b 2006-08-02 06:06|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/] 2006-08-02 06:06|| Front Page Top

#7 Hmmm... I guess this puts the nail in the post by the idiot (Megan Mcardle?) subbing for Instapundit. She was whining about how the rockets didn't start until after the "Israel invasion".

Personally, I've stopped reading Instapundit for the week. May never go back. Letting someone that depraved and ignorant in as a guest poster is a bad sign.

Posted by Robert Crawford">Robert Crawford 2006-08-02 06:19|| http://www.kloognome.com/]">[http://www.kloognome.com/] 2006-08-02 06:19|| Front Page Top

#8 is this an instapundit thing? I havent been reading Instapundit lately, and i havent heard anyone say there was an Israeli intell failure wrt to the number of Hezb missiles.

Rather what ive gleaned is that Tzahal was not prepared for the Hezb being as strong ON THE GROUND as they proved to be. So well dug in, bunkers, tunnels, etc.

In all likelihood there will be a ceasefire very soon. The big question will then be how much did Tzahal manage to achieve in degrading Hezb capacity - rockets, launchers, "militants", command and control etc. Right now Tzahal is indicating substantial progress, but the number of missiles still being fired is very high. After action reports will be very important.

Israel will face two questions - 1. could Tzahal have done more damage if they were better prepared - that will be a judgement of Halutz primarily (Peretz simply hasnt been office long enough for it to reflect much on him, I think)
2. Was it enough damage to offset the political costs of the sustained campaign - that will be a judgement on Peretz and Olmert.

Posted by liberalhawk 2006-08-02 10:42|| 2006-08-02 10:42|| Front Page Top

#9 LH: People who write about "intel failures" know nothing about the fog of war or even business for that matter. I wonder how many of these folks have ever been in a game or a business situation where an opponent has been trying to outmaneuver him?

Posted by 11A5S 2006-08-02 14:14|| 2006-08-02 14:14|| Front Page Top

#10 Let's hope Sir Charles ends up wrong on Syrian chem bombs on Israel.

Posted by Captain America 2006-08-02 14:45|| 2006-08-02 14:45|| Front Page Top

#11 "People who write about "intel failures" know nothing about the fog of war or even business for that matter. I wonder how many of these folks have ever been in a game or a business situation where an opponent has been trying to outmaneuver him?"

Israel simply cant afford to be outmaneuvered. Its Dan Halutz' job to know what there is on the ground in a situation like this. Certainly the Israeli polity was not forgiving of Dayan, Golda Meir, or Chaim Bar Lev for the intell failures prior to the Yom Kippur war.

Im not saying that will happen to Halutz, who may very well be able, ultimately, to point to good results.

Posted by liberalhawk 2006-08-02 14:50|| 2006-08-02 14:50|| Front Page Top

#12 In all likelihood there will be a ceasefire very soon

oh yes. And we'll all have free health care, and poor people will no longer be at a disadvantage because enough money was placed in a social program, conservatives will be eliminated from the planet and there will be no more racism, and everyone will live happily ever after.

Posted by 2b 2006-08-02 16:09|| 2006-08-02 16:09|| Front Page Top

#13 "oh yes. And we'll all have free health care, and poor people will no longer be at a disadvantage because enough money was placed in a social program, conservatives will be eliminated from the planet and there will be no more racism, and everyone will live happily ever after"

Huh? what are you getting at? There very likely WILL be a UNSC ceasefire resolution, if not this week, than next week. With a US yes vote. At which point Israel will have no choice but to stop its operation. Which puts time pressure on Tzahal. Thats a reality Israel faces, just as it faced it in 1973 and 1967.

Are you trying to say that Hezb wont stick to the ceasefire? Probably they wont, but thats not relevant to what I was saying.

Posted by liberalhawk 2006-08-02 16:37|| 2006-08-02 16:37|| Front Page Top

#14 LH, I don't think there will be an unconditional ceasefire UNSC resolution. GWB has said no return to the pre-war status quo and I believe he will stick to his guns.

What there will be is a conditional ceasefire. Conditional on some international force that may or may not materialize.

Personally, I think this is a masterful strategy. It forces the usual suspects to actually do something substantial and they will be found seriously wanting. It will be fun watching them squirm and wriggle because they can't deliver.

Posted by phil_b">phil_b 2006-08-02 20:46|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/] 2006-08-02 20:46|| Front Page Top

#15
"I guess this puts the nail in the post by the idiot (Megan Mcardle?) subbing for Instapundit."

Oh man! I'm glad someone else thinks she's an idiot. I'll start visiting there again when Glenn gets back, but that gal is too much.

-M

Posted by Manolo 2006-08-02 22:04|| 2006-08-02 22:04|| Front Page Top

#16 Also don't forget media reports of anywhere between several 00 to several 000's of Iranian fighters and "advisors" in Lebanon or coming into Lebanon, espec during the Clinton years.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2006-08-02 23:38|| 2006-08-02 23:38|| Front Page Top

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