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2006-07-12 China-Japan-Koreas
Seoul
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Posted by Gravirong Angarong2242 2006-07-12 05:51|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 Will NKor attack Seoul if attacked? Almost certainly.

They could shoot salvos of missiles for generations into Seoul. When I was stationed at Camp Casey, between Seoul and the border, I always suspected that we’d be sacrificed because the politicos wouldn’t allow us to deploy in order not to provoke the Nkors when things started getting hot. . So, we’d know they were coming when the first round of firing came crashing into our position. They’ve had decades to get the exact position of every building on the compounds. When I was there the whole compound conducted an exit exercise. Using the >two< gates, it took over 24 hours to move all the personnel and equipment out. Casey was nicely tucked into a topographical cul-de-sac.

The problem for the Nkors is that they’d largely be limited to rocket and artillery. When Skor had very little in the way of a trained Army, it took the commies days to get into Seoul . Today, not only do the Skors have a real army as things are ajudged these days, but Seoul itself is one major metro complex. The topography leading into Seoul channelizes the routes and the terrain offers great opportunity to establish hard defensive positions. Unless you have the training and technology the Americans have, city fighting is going to be a bitch and because you quickly end up compartmentalizing the battlefield, the fight can only be pushed by local initiative, something a ’mother may I’ command system can not effectively apply. Yes, you can push bodies into the fight, but it is just a meat grinder like WWI. That approach is further undermined by the American/western concept of deep battle which would be attacking and attriting the follow on reserves in those geographical lanes to the city. Battle doesn’t continue if you have nothing to throw in.

How many and what yield are the Nkor's nukes [note well, they haven't been 'proofed' yet]? And Seoul like Nagasaki has some topography issues which will mitigate some effects. One or two can do some serious damage, but anymore than the Kobe earthquake did to that city? Some of this may just be the Hollywood scare effect.
Posted by Chereper Whush1804 2006-07-12 10:05||   2006-07-12 10:05|| Front Page Top

#2 Quarantine Nkor and its economy collapses and its exports of weapons end. No need for violence beyond boarding parties. If the Norks want to start the artillery barrage because of that, Sorks should do something now.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-07-12 10:10||   2006-07-12 10:10|| Front Page Top

#3 Let me add something to the discussion, which may or may not be worth the bandwidth.

I think SKor wants the status quo to continue indefinitely. Sure, they don't want Seoul getting shelled, nor do they want to be ruled by Kim Jong-Il; nobody in their right mind wants either of those things to occur.

But . . . they also don't want Kim to go down, because then they (at least think they) get saddled with the rebuilding costs for NKor. They look north and see a giant vacuum cleaner ready to suck the life out of their economy. Therefore, cold-hearted as it may seem--those are fellow Koreans starving up there, after all--the inertia is all on the side of, well, inertia.

That worked just fine for 53 years, when SKor's self-interest was most at stake, but once Kimmie attains the capability to hit Tokyo and Harbin and Seattle, there are other calculations of self interest by other countries that come into play. I doubt the Japanese can be persuaded to risk Osaka to protect Seoul, and China (at least) is cold-blooded enough to trade away collateral damage to Seoul to eliminate a threat to Mukden.
Posted by Mike 2006-07-12 10:25||   2006-07-12 10:25|| Front Page Top

#4 Quarantine Nkor and its economy collapses and its exports of weapons end.

Credibly announce that any attacks by N. Korea or by others with arms from or built with the assistance of N. Korea will earn a military response against China and you do the same.
Posted by AzCat 2006-07-12 11:05||   2006-07-12 11:05|| Front Page Top

#5 I doubt the Chinese would stop running the trains based on that threat. They'd know it was hollow when they heard Hagel/McCain/Lugar condemn it on the Sunday morning shows and threaten the president with impeachment.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-07-12 11:10||   2006-07-12 11:10|| Front Page Top

#6 Hence my use of the qualifier "credibly".
Posted by AzCat 2006-07-12 11:25||   2006-07-12 11:25|| Front Page Top

#7 Hence my suggestion of quarantine. Perhaps by the JMSDF.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-07-12 11:28||   2006-07-12 11:28|| Front Page Top

#8 If we have a way to take out Kimmie and the leadership, we should do it now. China is not about to lose us as a trading partner and after Kimmie there is no power left and whomever took over would not have the cult appeal and little following.
Posted by Cyber Sarge 2006-07-12 14:35||   2006-07-12 14:35|| Front Page Top

#9 In the inscrutable game, China must understand that if Nkor collapses and leaves the field to Skor, the Americans will leave the peninsula. So, why doesn’t China want the Americans to leave? They must understand by now that the policy is only making the Japanese-American alliance tighter not weaker. Keeping the Americans around only means more obstruction concerning Taiwan. So why are they doing these things to keep the Americans around? Something is going on here that is not apparent, because their actions mean they want the Americans around.
Posted by Uninetle Spinesh9362 2006-07-12 16:57||   2006-07-12 16:57|| Front Page Top

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