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2009-07-27 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

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Posted by Bobby 2009-07-27 06:23|| || Front Page|| [11129 views ] Top

#1 Alessandro Vespignani of the Univ. of Indiana has an epidemic model that was dead on in predicting the spread of the first, milder form of H1N1 this Spring and Summer. That model and two others based on somewhat different data all project that 40% is not an exageration. What is worse is that it's quite possible that the Fall version of H1N1 will be more severe in its effects.

Children, pregnant women and teens / early 20s are most at risk, unlike normal Fall influenzas, and that was also the case with the killer influenza pandemic early in the 20th century.

Vespignani's model, which is based on very detailed information about demographics, how people commute and travel and on characteristics of the virus itself - shows that our mobility combined with the incubation period of this flu means that vaccinating susceptible populations is the only way to reduce the number of potential deaths. Things like limiting airline travel and encouraging face masks and hand sanitizer are useful but are not enough to stop a pandemic with this virus.

Posted by lotp 2009-07-27 06:48|| 2009-07-27 06:48|| Front Page Top

#2 Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Can't even be re-written? Hokey smokes, Bullwinkle, they gonna check all the words?

Stop whining like a little beeotch and sucking off AP's hard work, and go here. It is precisely the same resource you can use to write your own story.

AP is misleading about what you can do. You can rewrite it it, but since they use a number of anonymous and unnamed sources, your copy will likely be strikingly similar to theirs.

Far better to go to the source, rewrite the news release and then go to a known source to quote them, just like AP did to write the story.

Posted by badanov 2009-07-27 07:12|| http://www.freefirezone.org]">[http://www.freefirezone.org] 2009-07-27 07:12|| Front Page Top

#3 "Health officials say flu cases may explode in the fall, when schools open and become germ factories" I can't take these people serious anymore. A few short months ago you would have thought the dead were stacked like cordwood in the streets. 300 Americans died of this flu virus? I think the figure for regular run-of-the-mill virus kills is about 20k EACH YEAR. So excuse me if I don't get worked up over this virus.

Posted by Cyber Sarge 2009-07-27 08:28|| 2009-07-27 08:28|| Front Page Top

#4 The death rate in the U.K. was 26 total, when 100,000 a week were getting infected.

A less than 0.01% chance of infection. Maybe your government like the UKs has a shit lot of Tamiflu that goes off over the newt few months and wants to turn the negative press over dumping the expired drug into an "action story"...

Posted by Bright Pebbles 2009-07-27 09:50|| 2009-07-27 09:50|| Front Page Top

#5 Before we all start acting like this is no big deal, may I remind you all that the 1918 epidemic didn't start out like an Ebola outbreak, either. Very few people died in the first wave back then. That one also happened in the spring and was relatively mild.

The second wave in the autumn was a whole 'nother story, and was severe enough to drop the expected life span for the general population by ten whole years. Just like that outbreak, this one hasn't really gone away like normal flus do.

This may turn out to be nothing, true. But since the Tsarevich is about the same age as my aunt was during that outbreak (she died at two from the flu...my father was the "replacement baby"), I'm not inclined to ignore this whole thing just yet.

Posted by Cornsilk Blondie 2009-07-27 10:38|| 2009-07-27 10:38|| Front Page Top

#6 Its already pandemic. Meaning there is no place to hide.

Look for these things (its what epidemiologists do)

Disease:

Prevalence: how many total cases there have been in the given population. This is an indicator of the total spread, and will likely be used as the "scare" number by the press. Its not nearly as important as the other terms below.

Incidence: This is the one you worry about, not prevalence - its how many NEW cases of infection happen in a given time period on a per-person basis, usually stated as a percentage. This can be basically used as the current risk of infection.

Morbidity - this is a measure of either hwo severe the disease is once you become infected, or else is the number/percentage of infected people in the populace. Be careful as to which context people use. The press is generally stupid and will mix terms carelessly. Used as a scale on how serious the infection gets broken down into populations, its useful, If its simply a repeat of prevalence, then its jsu a big scary number for non-scientists to worry over because "morbid" sound so much worse than "prevalent".

Mortality - the number or percentage of a given group that has died in a particular time range. This is useful in determining how quickly it kills, and who is getting hit worst. This is the other one to look after.

All 4 of the above are important to observe - as well as what population they are based on (males, under 20, babies, the whole populace, everyone in Florida, etc).

Don't let the press fool you - look for incidence rates, mortality rates, and clinical morbidity; be sure to see what group/area they are basing it on.

Doc Steve probably knows more than I do, my knowledge is just the stuff I learned in the bio warfare courses a long time ago.

Posted by OldSpook 2009-07-27 11:48|| 2009-07-27 11:48|| Front Page Top

#7 I suspect the UK had a low death rate primarily because they are used to Flu and Flu like outbreaks in the cold wet weather over there. Not just natural immunities but common sense sanitation things. The sort of thing that was missing in Mexico when it hit because they are not a nation that naturally runs across the flu each winter.

I'm curious about the teens and early 20s most at risk. How is that possible? I would understand if they were at risk of catching mild versions. Is that what you meant lotp?

Posted by rjschwarz 2009-07-27 17:57|| 2009-07-27 17:57|| Front Page Top

#8 Younger are at higher risk because it is like the 1918 flu. It goes to the lungs quickly, and the younger more active immune system over-revs and floods the lungs with waste products (the older immune systems, it is theorized, do not react as severely and this work fast enough to get the virus but slow enough to where the waste products cna be disposed of). This is after the virus has already multiplied by a lot in younger people due to their less "experienced" immune system not grabbing it earl as well.

That's all just theory I read up on when I was checking the 1918 flu, don't take it for gospel.

Posted by OldSpook 2009-07-27 18:57|| 2009-07-27 18:57|| Front Page Top

#9 Thus far the GOVT + MSM-Net has been very good at telling Amers how "Swine Flu" is similar to NORMAL FLU > HOWZABOUT TELLING US THEIR SIGNIFICANT, POTENS DANGEROUS/MORTAL DIFFERENCES AS COMPARED TO NORMAL/REGU FLU. Ive see nuthin' yet on the News to show how Swine Flu is the same or worser than the worldwide 1918 INFLUENZA = so-called "SPANISH FLU" EPIDEMIC.

NOT even per the on-going ANTHRAX, WEST NILE, .....@ SCARE(S).

* D *** NG IT, MORIARITY, ZOOOMG WE NEED OWG-NWO + SUPER-GOVTISM/SOCIALISM BECUZ PEOPLE WHO DON'T WASH THEIR HANDS "MAY" OR "CAN" OR "COULD" OR "MIGHT" GET SICK.

Personally I'm more concerned about PUBLIC-PRIVATE SECTOR NEGLIGENCE = FAILURE in not routinely cleaning andor putting HAND SOAP + TOWELS, ETC, IN PUBLIC RESTROOMS.

Posted by JosephMendiola">JosephMendiola 2009-07-27 19:18|| NA]">[NA] 2009-07-27 19:18|| Front Page Top

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