Article

2004-07-17 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by Dan Darling 2004-07-17 12:19:00 AM|| || Front Page|| [11127 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Real good post Dan.

Iran is the number one target after the elections ...once Bush beats Kerry that is.

Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-07-17 12:20:31 AM|| 2004-07-17 12:20:31 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Your keyboard to God's polling station, Mark, but I keep following the polls, and I think GWB is in real trouble.

Posted by Steve White 2004-07-17 12:28:00 AM|| 2004-07-17 12:28:00 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 I agree with you, #2. Latest CBS poll today[okay okay I know CBC is biased but it's hard to believe CBS can rig its poll results] show that Kerry is ahead by 5 points.

The average American is quickly losing patience with GWB lauding the fact that we "liberated" 26 million Iraqis and admitting, ooops, the CIA had bad intelligence about Iraq. If the 9/11 Commission's report in fact states that Iran was connected to the 9/11 attack, no one is going to be very pleased with GWB losing 900 GI's lives and spending X Billions of dollars chasing Saddam out of Iraq.

"Imminent gathering danger" is trumped by real and active evil that helped kill 3000 Americans on our soil. No, #1, I don't think middle America is going to jump at the idea of opening up yet a 3rd battle front. Middle America is going to say: "GWB, why didn't you get it right the first time? No second chances for you. Next batter up..."

Posted by rex 2004-07-17 12:45:01 AM|| 2004-07-17 12:45:01 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Steve.,I know what I typed was the best situation but if the Bobbsey Twins win, all of us ..I can't type it...nor even contemplate the adverse effects. A headache is coming on...ahhhh

Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-07-17 12:50:55 AM|| 2004-07-17 12:50:55 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 I share your pain, #3. More worrisome than Kerry and Edwards doing next to nothing about terror threats abroad, they will act like the good lawyers both of them are and rip the Patriot Act to shreds. Then they'll raise taxes on everyone earning $100,000 or more. Then they'll institute universal healthcare so all of us get mediocre health care services from Third World trained physicians[former taxi drivers]. Then they'll legalize 14 million illegal aliens and pass the Dream Act to give illegal aliens college scholarships. I see out country going down the tubes fast under the Bobbsey twins.

Posted by rex 2004-07-17 1:01:24 AM|| 2004-07-17 1:01:24 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 It's almost like one knows there is an earthquake or hurricane and one can't move for whatever reason.

This is incredible that some nations either do not fathom the very real threats from the death cultists or they have adopted the early days of 1939 school of thought. Even when the enemy slaughters commuters of public transit they appease, appease and appease some more, and maybe..... they will simply go away. The enemy is not at the gates he is inside waiting, lurking and watching every monumental blunder & reaction the non-Islamic world continues to display, as if almost deliberately attempting to follow the exact script of the dangerous history of double dealings which led up to the first days of World War Two.

To the leftist political Dem Party machine top hacks, they are only viewing the entire global situation as one they 'think' they can use to regain power. It's insane.

Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-07-17 1:20:21 AM|| 2004-07-17 1:20:21 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 Has Kerry stated his position(s) at all about what he plans to do if he's elected--*shudder*--about both Iran and the NorKs?
(And Syria and Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and...etc.)

Posted by Jen 2004-07-17 1:24:46 AM|| [http://www.greatestjeneration.com] 2004-07-17 1:24:46 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 One issue that is greatly disturbing is they posting on radical 'protesters' web-sites in terms of the planned fifth column acts of out right treason these collaborators are plotting, if allowed, at both conventions.

This is ready made for the jihadic fanatics to walk right through the side door while these 'progressives' create deliberate national security diversions.

There used to be a term for this, and federal reciprocity, which was swift, setting off alarm bells to any & all duplicators of siding with the enemy during the war years. These are the war years of the early days of the 21st century.

Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-07-17 1:29:55 AM|| 2004-07-17 1:29:55 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 Jen - The answer is their mantra - International / UN. Everything can be fixed if they do the multilateral two-step.

Posted by .com 2004-07-17 1:30:57 AM|| 2004-07-17 1:30:57 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 Maybe this gives us an idea about how Kerry would deal with Iran and North korea, et al:
American power comes from respect, not weapons
Our leaders in WWII understood that America drew its power not only from the might of weapons, but also from the trust and respect of nations around the globe. There was a time, not so long ago, when the might of our alliances was a driving force in the survival and success of freedom-in two World Wars, in the long years of the Cold War-then from the Gulf War to Bosnia & Kosovo. America led instead of going it alone. We extended a hand, not a fist. We respected the world-and the world respected us.
Source: John Kerry speech on foreign policy, Seattle WA May 27, 2004

Posted by rex 2004-07-17 1:31:57 AM|| 2004-07-17 1:31:57 AM|| Front Page Top

#11 Jen. There is one word .....NADA! The Kerry response to all current & future global threats.

We must not even entertain the possibility of that phoney gaining any sort of victory in Nov.

Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-07-17 1:34:31 AM|| 2004-07-17 1:34:31 AM|| Front Page Top

#12 Rex . oy God help us !

Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-07-17 1:35:50 AM|| 2004-07-17 1:35:50 AM|| Front Page Top

#13 Sorry, rex but BS-ing about American power (all of which, I might point out, that sKerry cites was bolstered by American military superiority) isn't sufficient for me as a voter and a citizen.
sKerry must specifically state what he plans to do about the nuclear threats from both Axis of Evil powers as CiC.

Posted by Jen 2004-07-17 1:37:17 AM|| [http://www.greatestjeneration.com] 2004-07-17 1:37:17 AM|| Front Page Top

#14 Jen, you may want specifics, but Joe Average voter wants to get by each day and pay his mortgage and watch his kids play soccer on the weekend. Joe Average likes hearing B.S. It's soothing. Joe Average does not want to hear specifics about fighting nuclear threats from the Axis of Evil. Joe Average couldn't find North Korea in a world atlas if his life depended on it. If Joe Average were at the head of the class, he'd think Iran was generally in the Middle East somewhere - if he was not so smart, he'd think Iran was where the Olympic Games are being held, or worse...the place that makes great Chardonnay wine.

Posted by rex 2004-07-17 1:52:28 AM|| 2004-07-17 1:52:28 AM|| Front Page Top

#15 Acutually Rex, you discribe Joe Below-Average. Don't be so sure about the ingnorant factor.

Posted by Lucky 2004-07-17 2:04:12 AM|| 2004-07-17 2:04:12 AM|| Front Page Top

#16 2:1 odds on Iran being next; 3:1 odds on Syria

Posted by Capt America 2004-07-17 2:16:27 AM|| [http://captamerica.blogspot.com/] 2004-07-17 2:16:27 AM|| Front Page Top

#17 I think we're spoiled by rantburg, #15. I don't think a lack of concern about world events is related to low IQ. What I meant to say is that Joe Average just wants to get by each day. Life is so stressful at the day-to-day level, many people don't want to take on additional "what if" worries.In fact, one of the reasons I post on rantburg is because people I know personally, who are very well educated and successful, have zero interest in discussing world politics.

So that's why I believe GWB may be in serious trouble if the 9/11 Commission report fingers Iran for giving support to the 9/11 terrorist attack. A real tangible terrorist attack on America is what Joe Average can relate to and get fired up and angry about... not an "imminent and gathering danger" in Iraq or N. Korea or Saudi Arabia. So Joe Average may get pissed at GWB for expending capital on a "potential" instead of a "for sure" because 9/11 is the only thing that has threatened his home.

Posted by rex 2004-07-17 2:19:31 AM|| 2004-07-17 2:19:31 AM|| Front Page Top

#18 "Recently discovered" eh?

Looks like Bush is on the ball. (No way he'll lose, either.)

Posted by someone 2004-07-17 4:49:30 AM|| 2004-07-17 4:49:30 AM|| Front Page Top

#19 I really don't see what's new here. We've known there were AQ folks in Iran for a long time. And the connection to the Khobar Towers attack has been reported for years. What is new I guess, is that the media have found a way to spin it in terms of "GWB attacked the wrong country."

Posted by virginian 2004-07-17 7:27:41 AM|| 2004-07-17 7:27:41 AM|| Front Page Top

#20 Errrr, the polls are somewhat decieving even the good ones because they tend to measure popular vote not electoral vote potential. Since the 2000 census and the Republican gains in the States redistricting has given Bush more electoral votes in the states that he took in 2000. One of the best predictors with less than a 1.5% margin of error I believe is:

http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/Pres04_VS.html

Kerry and his catamite could loose with 51% of the popular vote because they lost the electoral vote.

Posted by toad 2004-07-17 8:19:04 AM|| 2004-07-17 8:19:04 AM|| Front Page Top

#21 Welll I am joe-average and most ppl I know want to know why Iran still standing and I live at the ass end of nowhere in the middle of the swamp.

Posted by djohn66 2004-07-17 8:20:54 AM|| 2004-07-17 8:20:54 AM|| Front Page Top

#22 rex,I don't care for you talking about the American people as "Joe Average" and characterizing them (us) as being simple-minded dolts who only care about meeting their most basic human needs.
The American people are smarter and more aware than you give them credit for.
And it's your type of "little people" thinking that is the DNC's mindset where they see themselves as the enlightened Ivy League intellectuals who are the only ones fit to make real decisions about running the country--
That is an oligarchy, my friend, and not a democratic republic!

Posted by Jen 2004-07-17 8:25:14 AM|| [http://www.greatestjeneration.com] 2004-07-17 8:25:14 AM|| Front Page Top

#23 #10,Running Eagle is flat out wrong,it was not respect that won WW2,it was American Industrial might+the courage of the American soldier/sailor/marine.
What Jen said!

Posted by raptor 2004-07-17 8:44:43 AM|| 2004-07-17 8:44:43 AM|| Front Page Top

#24 Rex, simply put, you are as disgustingly wrong in your opinion about the Joe Average as are the Democrats.

Just informal polls at my (Catholic) Church shows that people of faith (i.e. the largest single organized religion in the US) strongly favor Bush. And they see past the campaign rhetoric. The see a people becoming free in spite of Iran trying to destabilize them. They see an improving economy. THey see neighbors getting jobs that were not there a year ago.

And these are "just" track drivers, accountants, managers, phone company workers, arpenters, etc - your average mix of Catholics.

[I discount where I work - we in the intelligence community know Kerry for what he is and are overwhelmingly Bush supporters]

As for the polls, you are extremely ignorant if you go with the horserace poll without examining the underlying data and polling:

1) its the "VP Bounce" (soon to be followed by the "Convention Bounce" - at this time in 88 Dukakis was up by 15 on Bush-Sr).

2) Bush is actually regaining favorability on the question "Who is best able to handle the terrorist threats to the US?" Last poll I saw as of last week was Bush is back over the 50% mark, and kerry is in the low 40%.

3) Bush is approaching 50% favorability rating (job perfomance). No president witha favorability rating of over 45% at this point has ever failed to be re-elected.

4) The Republicans have yet to really start campaigning. They've run few ads, and have been relatively quite. Kerry has run tons of ads and will be soon getting hit with Federal camaign limits - which will slow him down. Bush does not hit those limits until the Repub convention. SO there's the gap into which, for a month, almsot 50 million dollars in pro-Bush and attack-Kerry (voting record, etc) ads will poured while Kerry is constrained.

Kerry has 75 million to spend between the convention and election. Bush reloads at the Rpub with his 75 million over 2 months instead of 3 that Kerry has. Add to that Moveon and SOros cannot run those "informational" adds within 3 weeks of the election - meaning the last 3 weeks will be easier for the Republicans to get their message out.

Do the math.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-07-17 10:49:45 AM|| 2004-07-17 10:49:45 AM|| Front Page Top

#25 Ref #17-If your analysis of Joe Average is true, then we better think about a new information campaign on how placing ourselves in Iraq and Afghanistan puts us in a better position to to squeeze Iran.

I think we can reach Joe America if we take the right tack.

Posted by jules 2 2004-07-17 10:56:52 AM|| 2004-07-17 10:56:52 AM|| Front Page Top

#26 OldSpook makes good points, but I'm still concerned. GWB has taken a sustained assault on his personage, honor and trust factor the last couple of years thanks to the media, moveon.org, Michael "FatAss" Moore, etc., and it shows in the polls.

Further, the Electoral College vote today is NOT reassuring. I've got an Excel template that I use to track this (go figure, eh?), and Bush is in trouble. Key battleground states (PA, FL) are edging towards Kerry. If I dump the polls that tend to be extremist on either side and just go down the middle with the more reputable pollsters, Bush loses right now about 295 - 243.

OS is right about the 1988 election -- remember, that came about in part because Dukakis was one of the most inept campaigners in modern election history. As scary as Kerry is, he seems to have learned from that, and he's somewhat (marginally?) better on the trail. Plus the moveon.org types aren't going to let up, and that continued pounding adds up.

I'd like OldSpook to be right, and I certainly intend to punch the GWB chad in November. But GWB is in trouble. I hope he knows it.

Posted by Steve White 2004-07-17 11:51:10 AM|| 2004-07-17 11:51:10 AM|| Front Page Top

#27 Newt Gingrich recently debated one of Kerry's legion of advisors, Richard Holbrooke, on the Today show. The transcript can be found here (I hope... it is a long URL).

After pressing Holbrooke on the North Korean question, Holbrooke finally says:
"I would continue the six power talks but make an all-out effort to put more pressure directly on North Korea."

In other words... pretty much the same thing that is happening now. Somehow Kerry would just "do it better". Yeah. Uh huh. Newt pressed him on how that would be accomplished, with Holbrooke dodging around and trying to get in a slam at Bush. Finally it came to this line from Gingrich:

"...Are you prepared to invade North Korea or is this just more rhetoric without any substantive action?"

Priceless! But Katie Couric stepped in and saved Holbrooke from having to formulate an answer.

Posted by eLarson 2004-07-17 12:00:56 PM|| 2004-07-17 12:00:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#28 I don't think the "tack" you mention is the appropriate one, #25. I'm not sure how much interest the 9/11 report will garner from the general public. Lucky for us the 9/11 hearings on TV were pretty boring and extremely partisan. Maybe Joe Average Citizen has already written off the Commission and hopefully, its report. If I were Karl Rove, I'd play down the Iraq thingie-even good news about Iraq-the less said about Iraq, the better. Say what you will, OldSpook about church goers being happy about liberating 26 Million Iraqis, trust me, MOST AMERICANS DO NOT CARE-we have been there, done that, and in the end we discover that Third World countries, Arabs included, hate us. If Bush wants to say anything about Iraq, then he should showcase Kurdistan and talk about numbers of troops there[350] and how that is how he would like to have the rest of Iraq rely on troops-next to nothing. ie. The only good news Joe Average wants to hear about Iraq are plans about our troops GETTING OUT OF THERE, kapeesh?

I think GWB should concentrate on domestic matters like the economy, airport security, maybe even announce plans to add more border control folks to the pay roll, plans for tort reform to help Americans keep their doctors in practice to serve their medical needs. Bush should play up his implementation of education standards and maybe announce plans to offer scholarships to SMART kids in high school to go to college and specialize in science, medicine, and technology, as well as monies to fund gifted programs in public elementary schools. The gifted have been overlooked for years in public education because all the vote buying $ has gone to disadvantaged, struggling students.

GWB needs to define himself as being different from a liberal because that's who will vote for him, non-liberals. The more he comes across as a RINO, the greater risk he will lose conservative votes. GWB can forget about appealing to Hispanics & blacks & gays. The majority of those folks vote Democrat anyways. What Bush needs to do is energize his middle America conservative voters, who otherwise may stay home, because they are not seeing a conservative in Bush and his yaking about "liberating" 26 million Iraqis just confirms that perception. The grand strategy of spreading democracy to Arab countries to make America does not play well in Kansas City. That theory is associated with a Democrat's foreign policy not a Republican's.

Posted by rex 2004-07-17 12:21:40 PM|| 2004-07-17 12:21:40 PM|| Front Page Top

#29 rex, does DUH.com know you're over here?
Maybe I didn't make myself clear:
Stop with the "Joe Average!" Capisce?
And Bush is doing everything right; he shouldn't change a thing!
You are such a typical Liberal Dimocrat, totally failing to understand normal Americans in Flyover Country!

Posted by Jen 2004-07-17 12:29:41 PM|| [http://www.greatestjeneration.com] 2004-07-17 12:29:41 PM|| Front Page Top

#30 Would anyone (everyone) be interested in sharing links to the best poll sites?

I've been following Rasmussen's Prez Track because they keep it fairly clean.

If you have something similar / better, plz post the link.

Thx.

Posted by .com 2004-07-17 12:48:37 PM|| 2004-07-17 12:48:37 PM|| Front Page Top

#31 I like the Iowa Electronic Markets that Toad posted above in #20.

Have you looked at RealClearPolitics? They have a poll average on the front page.

Posted by eLarson 2004-07-17 1:09:12 PM|| 2004-07-17 1:09:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#32 Rex's point:

GWB needs to define himself as being different from a liberal because that's who will vote for him, non-liberals. The more he comes across as a RINO, the greater risk he will lose conservative votes.

Is well taken. The average american wants his or her family safe, some stability in the standard of living, employment, community, etc etc. Responsible things like control of borders, a runaway Supreme Court, for example are not addressed by the Bush Administration. People like leadership, but in the case of the Bush Administration, the only thing that he got right so far is the WoT. People want leadership and demonstrated character and standing up for values, not politics run by the polls and hacks like Rove. When you are going for votes, perception is a major factor, and I regretfully say that Bush is perceived as weak and waffling in many issues that matter to middle class voters. Both parties absolutely disgust me in their greed and weakness. But how do you get the good ones to go for public office when the perception of being in office is that you have to be a scumbag and sell your soul to get there?
This is Bush's election to LOSE. His party is not helping him.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2004-07-17 1:24:39 PM|| 2004-07-17 1:24:39 PM|| Front Page Top

#33 eL - Lol! I've been to RCP 50 times to read the articles and never paid attention to the polls on the right. Oh brother, tunnel vision! Shit! Thx! :-}

Posted by .com 2004-07-17 1:28:07 PM|| 2004-07-17 1:28:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#34 Maybe I didn't make myself clear:Stop with the "Joe Average!"
And you are...the Moderator...the Queen...God???

You are such a typical Liberal Dimocrat, totally failing to understand normal Americans in Flyover Country!
a. I am not a Democrat b. My parents were farmers. I was born in the Midwest. I think I know "fly over" country better than you.

Bush is doing everything right; he shouldn't change a thing
If this were so, GWB should be ahead of a mediocre candidate like Kerry by at least 10-15 points. GWB is behind in polls some weeks or barely holding his own in other weeks. The only reason Kerry has not wiped Bush off the map in polls is because Kerry is so unlikeable. This election was for GWB, the incumbent, to lose, and he's in danger of doing it. The last thing on earth I'd want is for a Democrat to win the WH, much less a left wing socialist like Kerry, and a slimeball personal injury lawyer like Edwards as his running mate.

You don't get it, Jen. You devote your life to worrying about global terror and think GWB is the man. You like the theory of spreading democracy around the world to fight global terror. But I got news for you. If GWB tried to 'splain that idea to America, he'd get wiped out in November.

Conservatives think "boom" is the best way to fight terror and liberals think ideology and education is a good way. Unfortunately, the left has a visceral hate for GWB, so as much as his Johnny Appleseed theory of military action might appeal to them, they will not vote for GWB no way, not ever. So GWB is back to courting and counting on conservatives to vote for him. Johnny Appleseed foreign policy is not going to win their votes. But domestic security, border control, standards in public education, moral values[being opposed to gay marriage], access to a variety of talented physicians and protection of their small business from frivolous lawsuits[tort reform] is what will energize conservatives to go out and vote. His foreign policy, in case you have not noticed, is the very thing that's having GWB's base think twice about him. So I say, play down foreign policy and play up values, direction for this country that is DIFFERENT from what the Democrats stand for.

Here's an article for you to ponder. Even the Democrats are seeing VALUES as GWB's strength and their weakness. That's the very thing he should yak about, not how many schools Mohammed has to choose from in Baghdad or what brands of jeans Afghan women are now able to wear in Kabul. http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20040717-9999-1n17faith.html
"Democrats seek to deliver message of faith, family values"
...There are politically strategic reasons for linking the Democratic message with religion and faith. Some experts say the "religion gap" is the fundamental divide in this year's election landscape, and that a person's religious commitment is a more significant indicator of voting behavior than education, income level or gender. According to the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 63 percent of voters who attend religious services more than once a week say they will vote for Bush, who polls show has a particularly firm hold on evangelical Protestant voters. While Republicans might feel secure in their hold on religious voters, 4 million evangelicals stayed home during the 2000 election, nearly costing Bush the White House...

Posted by rex 2004-07-17 1:47:18 PM|| 2004-07-17 1:47:18 PM|| Front Page Top

#35 Continuation of my #34 post...the following is what will energize voters to get out and vote for Bush. This position shows the difference between liberals/RINOS and conservatives. This shows leadership. This shows Bush in the best possible light and on an issue that he doesn't get tongued tied on. If GWB can stay away from empty Karl Rovian phrases like "evil doers" and "Islam is a religion of peace" and "brave Iraqi people", GWB will do himself a lot of good in November.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040717/ap_on_el_pr/bush&cid=694&ncid=716
... Drug use and violent crime among teenagers have decreased dramatically, while children raised in households with married parents are less likely to live in poverty, the president said Saturday in his weekly radio address. He cited a newly issued government report to claim progress. "My administration is acting to encourage teens to make healthy choices," Bush said...Bush and Democratic rival John Kerry are trying to define and dominate the debate on gay marriage, abortion, gun rights and other values issues. The sparring has emerged along with the economy and the war in Iraq as a critical issue in the close presidential campaign, with some polls showing Americans evenly split on which candidate shares their personal values. ...Bush highlighted his proposals to spend $23 million for drug testing in schools and $25 million to encourage schools to develop curricula promoting good character...The culture of America is changing from one that said, "if it feeds good, do it; and if you've got a problem, blame somebody else," Bush said, using language reminiscent of his recent campaign speeches. The values debate is seen as energizing Bush's strongest supporters, particularly in Republican-leaning rural America...

Posted by rex 2004-07-17 2:32:24 PM|| 2004-07-17 2:32:24 PM|| Front Page Top

#36 But domestic security, border control, standards in public education, moral values[being opposed to gay marriage], access to a variety of talented physicians and protection of their small business from frivolous lawsuits[tort reform] is what will energize conservatives to go out and vote.
Bush stands for all these things and has tried to promote them as President, in addition to being superb on foreign policy.
I don't know what you and AP are really bitching about, except that thanks to the Media, everyone's a pundit and feels they're obliged to tell Bush how to run the perfect campaign.
Kerry sucks on every issue--even when he takes both sides, as he usually does--whereas Bush has done a fine job in the past 4 years and deserves to be reelected!

Posted by Jen 2004-07-17 2:53:46 PM|| [http://www.greatestjeneration.com] 2004-07-17 2:53:46 PM|| Front Page Top

#37 oh, and rex, word to the wise: The AP/Yahoo is no friend to Bush. Ever.
(They're only a hair's breadth better than al-Reuters)

Posted by Jen 2004-07-17 3:10:51 PM|| [http://www.greatestjeneration.com] 2004-07-17 3:10:51 PM|| Front Page Top

#38 Who cares whether or not AP/Yahoo is a friend of GWB or not? How is that smug observation relevant to the discussion? Fyi, I quoted the AP/Yahoo article because it featured Bush campaigning on values. Am I supposed to wait until the Wash. Times or FOX News runs a story on Bush doing the same thing because they are "friendlier?"

Posted by rex 2004-07-17 3:20:33 PM|| 2004-07-17 3:20:33 PM|| Front Page Top

#39 Quite simply, yes, rex.

Posted by Jen 2004-07-17 3:43:25 PM|| [http://www.greatestjeneration.com] 2004-07-17 3:43:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#40 I'm a certifiable peawit for even thinking of stepping into this, but here goes...
Jen, the point that Rex is trying to make is that, all other things being equal, Bush should be mopping the floor with a candidate as wooden, hauty, unphotogenic, elitist, inarticulate, droll, unapproachable, and generally creepy as Herman Forbes Munster. Instead, the situation is a dead heat at best.

His choice of words may be indelicate, but Rex's analysis of the electorate is spot-on. I lack statistics to back this up (anyone? anyone?), but my own anectodal analysis is overwhelmingly unanimous: for the vast majority of Americans, September 11 is ancient history, Iraq was a mistake, the Patriot Act is tyranny, terror alerts are either irritants or punch-lines, Tom Ridge is a Clutch Cargo lookalike, attacking Iran sounds like a great idea (for a Bruckheimer movie), and people like us have passed from being "hawks" and gone into the realm of "freaks" on par with Furries and Sailor Moon cosplayers.

If I'm wrong, then why can't a headcount of RB's regular posters fill a deck of cards (even with Murat, Antiwar, Gentle, etc.)? Why have all of us, at one point or another, expressed frustration over the fact that few people we know in the "real life" are even capable of discussing world affairs with us? When's the last time you uttered "Waziristan" or "al Aqsa" or "kufr" at work or your parents' place? Can you mention "Tater" or "Hek's bad boyz" or even "Arafish" to your neighbor?

Jen, everyone else, I'm sorry (I'm really, really sorry), but we're not mainstream, or else we wouldn't be here. Bush is hardly doomed, but if Bill O'Reilly is openly questioning the WMD causus bellum, then Bush is certainly in the tall grass. Whether that changes hinges on who has his ear. And there, again, Rex is right. If Bush is being told, "We've gotta reach out to the [insert lost-cause left-bastion demographic here] and quit looking so gosh-darned Republican," then he's roadkill.

If this gets sinktrapped, take care all.

Posted by Another Dan 2004-07-17 4:29:56 PM|| 2004-07-17 4:29:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#41 AD - all good points. W however, depending on how he plays the next couple months, IMHO is in the catbird seat. Watch if Kedwards get a bump from their convention.... all other indicators: economy, Iraq, consumer confidence are riding up. The more people see and know Kerry, the less they like him. Check out poll reviews at Polipundit and Realclearpolitics...our friend Zhang Fei posts frequently at Poli. W could do wrong and who knows how an AQ attack would play, but he's in good shape right now. GOTV - get out the vote - is the big stick!

Posted by Frank G 2004-07-17 4:36:39 PM|| 2004-07-17 4:36:39 PM|| Front Page Top

#42 Excellent content, #40, and very funny, too!

However, I disagree with you, #41, about Bush being in the "catbird seat." As was mentioned in an earlier post, the polls over the last few months belie your optimism about GWB retaining his incumbent's advantage.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm
While it's true that Kerry is not an attractive person, the folks who will vote for Kerry do so because they hate Bush and not because they are "fooled" by Kerry the enigma and will suddenly see the light. For Bush to win, he needs to energize/inspire conservative voters who are getting a bit weary with domestic overspending, liberating Arabs in far off lands, and illegal aliens coming over the border by the truck load. Bush has got to win those disappointed constituents back to the fold. And he's got to persuade the 3% undecided[independents] that he is the better man to represent their values.

Posted by rex 2004-07-17 5:03:19 PM|| 2004-07-17 5:03:19 PM|| Front Page Top

#43 My favorite sites for election polling data...

The Hedgehog Report

Election Projection

The war drums are starting to beat faintly on Iran....

Posted by Damn_Proud_American 2004-07-17 7:17:03 PM|| [http://brighterfuture.blogspot.com] 2004-07-17 7:17:03 PM|| Front Page Top

#44 A few things to keep in mind about polls.

What people say to a pollster and what people do are 2 very different things (Dean learned that one the hard way).

Democrats make a lot of noise but they don't vote and the more left wing they are, the less likely they are to get off the couch on election day.

Many of these polls (NYTimes and CBS are famous for this) are extremely biased towards registered democrats. I've seen some where the number of democrats were 10% higher than the number of republicans polled.

Posted by Damn_Proud_American 2004-07-17 7:23:39 PM|| [http://brighterfuture.blogspot.com] 2004-07-17 7:23:39 PM|| Front Page Top

#45 Starting right after the close of polls on that tues. night in Novemeber....

The heavy 2nd Arm. Div. moved just weeks before from the Korean border will be warming up their heavy tanks and preparing to race to Tehran. In the air the stealth fighters (currently practicing in Korea) and the UACVs will be preforming their E-lint destruction dance. Hot on their tails will be B-2's with bunker busters heading for the nuke sites.... At terrain level the cruise missles will be winging their way from subs and ships...
Such will be election night no matter whom wins...

Posted by 3dc 2004-07-17 7:42:29 PM|| 2004-07-17 7:42:29 PM|| Front Page Top

#46 rex? I take your dissent with pride, thx

Posted by Frank G 2004-07-17 8:27:25 PM|| 2004-07-17 8:27:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#47 One thing about Rassmussen - he was off the last election, and this one so far as well in the same manner: his polls skew Democrat by +3to5% on average, especially in the national polls, and in large states.

Also, you need to make sure the polls are of "likely voters" and that they mirror the expected (historical) turnout for the demographic of the voter.

Rasmussen and others do "adjustments" based on private turnout models, which can skew the results. An example of this is the CBS poll that did NOT adjust the poll numbers based on likely turnout. They ran the straight numbers, despite their sample being 43+ % Democrat and less than 30% Republican (way off the national distribution, and even further off the usual turnout percentages).

Until you get a poll of "likely voters" with a solid turnout number and an unbiased sample, poll results are dubious tools af much anything other than trends (i.e. they are done the same way every time, so you can see movement to or from a given candidate).

And finally (on polls): These are phone polls. How many of you have caller ID? How many of you have anonymous call reject or don't answer the phone unless you recognize the caller? How many of you mainly use your cell phone and are not home or have completely done away with your "land line" for anything other than a modem line?

Middle class and midwesterners typically are not that easy to reach viaphone - and the "upper middle" on upward are even less likely to be polled (although they are even more likely to vote).

Now how many of the typical poor or lower class, bloc-voting urban Democrats (regardless of color) do the same? A lot less than the former bunch.

So "middle American" tends to be underrepresented in these pools, Upper-Class is virtually ignored, and lower-class/poor/urban are likely far too easily available and overrepresented.

If you want to see one of the better sites:

Dale's ECB is probably one of the most accurate as he uses a lot of poll sources (and righfully discards most of the Zogby internet polls) - although I do think he gives Rasmussen too much weight.

Right now that has Kerry winning the electoral college. But swing either Pennsylvania or Florida (bot5h very close states) over to Bush and Bush wins.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-07-17 8:56:25 PM|| 2004-07-17 8:56:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#48 Given the circumstances, and the constant pounding in the media, and the drumbeat of tacit liberal attempts to tear Bush down every chance they get, (and the complete tossing away and not reporting ANY good news - from job reports to the successes in Iraq) its remarkable that Bush is not further behind.

The problem now has to be getting the Bush and Republicans in gear, nationally, before it becomes too late - they have to take some momentum now from Kerry and gain a little themselves. Time for some "interest group" attack ads. Kerry is very vulnerable to these. Especially since he "Voted for it before he voted against it" on a lot of issues, and his Abortion stand leaves him wide open to hipocracy charges (and will damage him in the south, midwest, and in Florida).

The one thing that discourages me is the inability of the party to field a good candiate without scraping: look at the mess in Illinois, and the potential mess in Colorado (both Republican senatorial seats). The fact that they dont even have a valid candidate in one and they had to grab Pete Coors in the other (insead of Owens - who would have been nearly unbeatable) speaks volumes that the national Republican Party has either become lazy or is seriously disorganized.

I will agree with Rex on this point: Bush had better start campaigning HARD very soon (instead of sitting back), or he will be playing catch up in critical areas far too late in the game, and the momentum Kerry will gain at the convention will carry the Dems through.

Bush needs to hammer home the "Liberal-Lawyer" nature of the Dem condidates, hammer Kerry's voting record (More liberal than Ted Kennedy!). Expose Kerry's absenteeism. Exposed Kerry's votes on all the systems that are keeping Americans alive in Iraq, and hammer home how he voted REPEATEDLY to cut *INTELLIGENCE* spending as late as 2000 - questioning the need for our agencies (and dredge up the nice quote about the CIA from Kerry's radical days).

Then hammer home how Bush's programs that improved the economy in spite of a multi-BILLION dollar attack on the US when we are already in a Recession left from the previous administration, how we have since then engaged terror on its home fields instead of the playfields of the USA, and how Freedom has expanded world-wide, citing Saddam in the dock, Qadaffi abandoning his arms program, how Afghanisatna now is looking forward to its first free elections since the Soviets invaded, and how Iraq will be the first fnation in the middle east in almsot half a century to change form a despotic dictatorship that terrorised its own people, invaded its neighbors, and threatened the entire region, to a representative government that is even now rebuilding its economy and learning the responsbilities and duties of a Democracy.

Come on Dubya, time to "Cowboy up and get moving".

Posted by OldSpook 2004-07-17 9:01:09 PM|| 2004-07-17 9:01:09 PM|| Front Page Top

#49 Dale's ECB?

Posted by .com 2004-07-17 9:06:15 PM|| 2004-07-17 9:06:15 PM|| Front Page Top

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