Article

2007-05-30 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Spengler: Why Iran will fight, not compromise

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Posted by Pappy 2007-05-30 00:12|| || Front Page|| [4 views ] Top

#1 My guess is that US Intelligence agencies are hoping to rely on Iranian opponents of the Ayatollahs. Opposition is centered in the seminary city of Qom; Teheran wouldn't be a target. In the case of Iranian exiles in America, there are reports that at least half have abandoned Islam, and they are in close contacts with family members back home. A poll of Iranian youth, taken before Ahmadinejad's rigged election, revealed almost universal desire to emigrate from the terror entity. If US does bomb Ayatollah power centers, as a signal to dissidents - especially professional military, who are fed up with the clerics - could it result in another Bay of Pigs fiasco that entrenches enemy power? I don't think so, because Iran isn't a tough nut to crack.

Posted by McZoid 2007-05-30 01:50|| 2007-05-30 01:50|| Front Page Top

#2 Iran will fracture along ethnic lines. The Iranian Kurds are very quiet at the moment, but give the Iraqi Kurds a couple of years to consolidate their hold on Kirkuk and Nineveh provinces and it will be game on.

Posted by phil_b 2007-05-30 05:15|| 2007-05-30 05:15|| Front Page Top

#3 42% of the non-agricultural population is employed by the Iranian state, compared with 17% in Pakistan

I love reading Spengler because of his snarks!

Posted by gromgoru 2007-05-30 07:19|| 2007-05-30 07:19|| Front Page Top

#4 I am hoping the Iranian economy & power structure will collapse before that of the USA, which has several systemic risks of its own at the moment: dependence on imported oil, a truly huge economic bubble in real estate/construction, an extremely vulnerable middle class, a huge current account deficit, and a ruling class scarcely in touch with reality.

Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2007-05-30 14:10|| 2007-05-30 14:10|| Front Page Top

#5 Iran to import more than half the gasoline it consumes because it lacks enough refinery capacity up - a serious vulnerability.

Posted by Angavirt Borgia5635 2007-05-30 17:12|| 2007-05-30 17:12|| Front Page Top

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