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2005-05-29 Europe
Vote early, often, and correctly--polls open in France
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Posted by Seafarious 2005-05-29 02:17|| || Front Page|| [11132 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 I fear Chirac is trying a massive fraud:

1) There was a suspicious rise in the YES for two institutes (another one kept the NO on the rise). It could be due to people having a remorse about the fact that if NO wins Europe will be destroyed, heaven will fall and cows will give coca-cola instead of milk. However it could also be due to Chirac preparing the ground for fraud so a last minute victory of the Yes being not suspicious

2) The sociology of the place where I live makes it a stronghold for the NO. Suspiciously we haven't got new electoral cards. Usual prcatice is to get a new one every year, specially when there is an election programmed. Cards are valid for more than one year but there will be disnifranchised people.

3) Chirac has paid special attention to the people in the overseas possessions. In those places clientelism and fraud are rampant. It was the "colonial" vote who was largely responsible for the YES victory about the 1992 referrendum

4) Embassies have started an unprecedented effort to make the expats vote. Since they are out of touch with what happens in France (and don't have to cope with the effects of governemnt policies) french expats tend largely to vote for the government.

5) Any fraud will be judged by the Constitutional Council who is populated by pro-YES people. Not a problem if they judge according to the law and justice. But I don't trust them, specially after seeing one of its members campaigning for the YES thus exhibiting a blatant direspect for the law: according to the law members of the Council must keep their mouths shut.
Posted by JFM">JFM  2005-05-29 03:38||   2005-05-29 03:38|| Front Page Top

#2 I've been predicting massive fraud for ages now, but it's interesting that the latest Intrade figures still haven't touched 30% likelihood of passage.

The margin may be too big to fudge.
Posted by someone 2005-05-29 06:32||   2005-05-29 06:32|| Front Page Top

#3 JFM-
If Chirac declares 'Fraud!', do you see him actually having the stones to accuse the US of being behind it? I am thinking that if anything got us to the point where we would give Phrawnce a genuine diplomatic slap, that would be it.

Mike
Posted by Mike Kozlowski 2005-05-29 11:05||   2005-05-29 11:05|| Front Page Top

#4 he'll blame England
Posted by Frank G">Frank G  2005-05-29 11:58||   2005-05-29 11:58|| Front Page Top

#5 Hi folks,

Update on Froggystan-from La Merde:

"The French of Overseas Territories have massively abstained from voting"… http://www.lemond…

——-

Via EU Referendum
Posted by anonymous2u 2005-05-29 12:02||   2005-05-29 12:02|| Front Page Top

#6 Is Jimmuh Cahtah there to "certify" the election?

If so, "yes" will win through massive vote fraud, certified by dear deified Peanut.

If not, the Phrogs have a chance at retaining some semblence of a country.

And maybe getting some dignity to boot.
Posted by Barbara Skolaut">Barbara Skolaut  2005-05-29 12:08|| http://ariellestjohndesigns.com]">[http://ariellestjohndesigns.com]  2005-05-29 12:08|| Front Page Top

#7 "The French of Overseas Territories have massively abstained from voting"… http://www.lemond…

They started voting yesterday, and IIUC, they voted more than for the Maastricht treaty 1992 referendum (abstention is generally higher than in most elections), and at that occasion they probably made the slight difference for the "yes" (JFM will tell you about this more knowledgeably)
The expatriates are also probably following the "yes" party line.

Btw, "Le Monde" official nick is either "L'Immonde", or "Al Jezeera sur Seine" (copyrighted MIF, whose W. currently serves at No Pasaran), not "La Merde", let's stay civil :-).
Posted by Anonymous5089 2005-05-29 12:27||   2005-05-29 12:27|| Front Page Top

#8 If Chiraq fudges the election, the EU is doomed because they can act fraudulantly more easily when the tough choices come up again. Setting a precident, ya know. If the people vote NO, then the EU dream is dead in the water. Want to die slowly or quickly? The US is sitting by. It's Europe's dog and their fight. Final thought: Can't run an organization with 300+ pages of bylaws. Mega-minutae.
Posted by Alaska Paul">Alaska Paul  2005-05-29 13:48||   2005-05-29 13:48|| Front Page Top

#9 I predict 52,5 % NON
Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-29 13:48||   2005-05-29 13:48|| Front Page Top

#10 VERY UNRELIABLE, BEWARE, but according to the ntv teevee, at 17:00 CET there is 52-56% for the non, according to polls outside voting stations. Grain of salt, I got this through an alsacian guy on internet. We'll see.
Posted by Anonymous5089 2005-05-29 13:53||   2005-05-29 13:53|| Front Page Top

#11 "Il est inutile de lire la partie III" (Giscard)

The funny thing is: The juicy things are in the big section 3 that nobody should bother to read.
Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-29 13:59||   2005-05-29 13:59|| Front Page Top

#12 Valérie Giscard "D'Estaing", the auvergnat Jefferson (Tm) : "La constitution est un texte
facilement lisible, limpide et assez joliment écrit, je le dis d'autant plus aisément que c'est moi qui l'ai rédigé".
(not-so good translation : "The constitution is an easily readable text, limpid et pretty nicely well written, I say this even more easily that it is I who wrote it down").
Posted by Anonymous5089 2005-05-29 14:27||   2005-05-29 14:27|| Front Page Top

#13 I have a highly unofficial hint that the NO could be slightly ahead. But I fear the worst.
Posted by JFM">JFM  2005-05-29 14:44||   2005-05-29 14:44|| Front Page Top

#14 Thank you RB Euro Bureau! And now I'm off to visit with my out-of-town friends on this fine holiday weekend.
Posted by Seafarious">Seafarious  2005-05-29 14:50||   2005-05-29 14:50|| Front Page Top

#15 Since I'm on a commenting spree, I might add that I believe the "yes" will win, by a slight margin, just as the Maastricht treaty. French people will be afraid of stepping outside the line, in addition to whatever may have been tried by the Shirakie.
That brings us back to the others referendum (referenda?), in Holland and Luxembourg the "No" is ahead in the polls, and I don't see England voting for the constitution either.

Of course, I'm always wrong, that's a permanent feature of my life, so it means the "No" will probably win.
Posted by Anonymous5089 2005-05-29 14:53||   2005-05-29 14:53|| Front Page Top

#16 I'm rooting for a "Non". That will clear the way for the French to continue their slide into statist squalor and serve as an object lesson for us all. Sounds like a majority of the electorate really wants no part of the Anglo-Saxon free market racket.
Posted by Classical_Liberal 2005-05-29 15:02||   2005-05-29 15:02|| Front Page Top

#17 Another highly unofficial hint: it looks like politicians on the YES side aren't happy.
Posted by JFM">JFM  2005-05-29 15:08||   2005-05-29 15:08|| Front Page Top

#18 Except for Dominique de Villepin who will have the Matignon on Monday
Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-29 15:15||   2005-05-29 15:15|| Front Page Top

#19 ...Dominique de Villepin [who is a man]...
Posted by Rafael 2005-05-29 15:21||   2005-05-29 15:21|| Front Page Top

#20 Non @ 51% according to TSR.ch
http://www.tsr.ch/tsr/index.html?
siteSect=200001&sid=5827030&cKey=1117394055000 (in french)
Posted by Anonymous5089 2005-05-29 15:23||   2005-05-29 15:23|| Front Page Top

#21 Thanks for clarifying Rafael... didn't we miss him a little already?
Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-29 15:27||   2005-05-29 15:27|| Front Page Top

#22 There is a hint: "The reporter at the siege of a pro-YEs faction has told: militants cross fingers and want to beelive until the last second". This hints that the mouth-to-ear is that the NO will win.

Another hint: "At the siege of a pro-No faction people look serene"
Posted by JFM">JFM  2005-05-29 15:47||   2005-05-29 15:47|| Front Page Top

#23 Non @ 56% according to TSR.ch... still, better to wait until 22:00 I guess... some socialist sez the No has won...
http://www.tsr.ch/tsr/index.html?
siteSect=200001&sid=5827030&cKey=1117395463000 (french)
Posted by Anonymous5089 2005-05-29 15:53||   2005-05-29 15:53|| Front Page Top

#24 First estimates: NON 55% !!!
Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-29 15:54||   2005-05-29 15:54|| Front Page Top

#25 54.5%

NO
Posted by Kalle (kafir forever) 2005-05-29 15:55||   2005-05-29 15:55|| Front Page Top

#26 Yeeeeeeees!

There is still hope that the EUSR project will fail.
Posted by Kalle (kafir forever) 2005-05-29 15:56||   2005-05-29 15:56|| Front Page Top

#27 Yeeeeeeees!

There is still hope that the EUSR project will fail. Very soon.
Posted by Kalle (kafir forever) 2005-05-29 15:56||   2005-05-29 15:56|| Front Page Top

#28 TV5 Europe has 55%
Sofres has 54,5%

It's over...no way to change that significantly
Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-29 15:56||   2005-05-29 15:56|| Front Page Top

#29 NO: 55% YES 45%

One of the things to keep in mind is that Chirac made a last attempt speech last Thurday when the NO was at 55% If the NO had won by say 51% then Chirac could have posed as having nearly reversed the result. But since the effect of his speech has been nil the end result is that Chirac has been seriously weakened.
Posted by JFM">JFM  2005-05-29 15:58||   2005-05-29 15:58|| Front Page Top

#30 Ok, Rooters sez the No wins with 54,5 to 55,6%, see, I was wrong, like always...
http://fr.news.yahoo.com/050529/290/4fujx.html (french)
Posted by Anonymous5089 2005-05-29 15:59||   2005-05-29 15:59|| Front Page Top

#31 I guess if Raffarin had spoken again the NON would have been 58%
Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-29 15:59||   2005-05-29 15:59|| Front Page Top

#32 When the German Bundestag ratified the Constitution Schroeder crowed: "The German people have approved the constitution with an overwhelming majority."

One of his more shameless lies and there's no shortage of those
Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-29 16:03||   2005-05-29 16:03|| Front Page Top

#33 On a related note, the Swiss are voting next weekend on their deeper submission to the EU. May this result support the NO vote in Switzerland.
Posted by Kalle (kafir forever) 2005-05-29 16:07||   2005-05-29 16:07|| Front Page Top

#34 wow. In 1 paragraph or less, I have to wonder if what we are seeing is the collapse of the power structure that brought us the nonsense of liberalism. It's failed. Miserably failed. Historically failed. What once glittered is now fools gold.

Unlike Fayed and Zark - it ain't dead yet. It's only stable.
Posted by 2b 2005-05-29 16:08||   2005-05-29 16:08|| Front Page Top

#35 A second thought is that given the large victory of the NO Chirac and his friends will not take the chance of a second referendum who would be a political suicide (BTW: The French really hate to vote twice on the same issue. Each time the vote of a mayor or deputy has been nullified due to irregularities end result has been that the original winner won again by a larger margin).
Posted by JFM">JFM  2005-05-29 16:09||   2005-05-29 16:09|| Front Page Top

#36 JFM, certainly no revote on the same text...but it's possible that they do some rewritings and try again.
Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-29 16:11||   2005-05-29 16:11|| Front Page Top

#37 It's a shame - I was hoping that 'Yes' would squeak through with a 50.01% share, the Dutch accept it by an equally tiny percentage, ....and then we reject it outright ;)

We signed up to an economic zone in 1973 - we *did not* sign up to having EU primacy over our laws.

For those of you who like "Yes Prime Minister", there's this


Sir Humphrey: "Minister, Britain has had the same foreign policy objective for at least the last 500 years: to create a disunited Europe. In that cause we have fought with the Dutch against the Spanish, with the Germans against the French, with the French and Italians against the Germans, and with the French against the Germans and Italians. Divide and rule, you see. Why should we change now when it's worked so well?"
Jim Hacker: "That's all ancient history, surely."
Sir Humphrey: "Yes, and current policy. We had to break the whole thing (the EEC) up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn't work. Now that we're inside we can make a complete pig's breakfast of the whole thing: set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch. The Foreign Office is terribly pleased, it's just like old times."


Of course, if the vote is 'No', it lets that Socialist Blair off the hook - "Look, there's really no need for a vote on Europe now, is there?"
Posted by Tony (UK) 2005-05-29 16:12||   2005-05-29 16:12|| Front Page Top

#38 Chirac will speak on French TV w/in minutes...
Posted by Kalle (kafir forever) 2005-05-29 16:14||   2005-05-29 16:14|| Front Page Top

#39 He just said that he's going to honor the vote.
Not much choice there, Jacques?
Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-29 16:28||   2005-05-29 16:28|| Front Page Top

#40 Chirac acknowledges the NO victory. BUT... France remains in the EU and other countries will continue to vote on the EU Constitution. French national interest will be central to the future of EU negotiations. New government next week.

Bah.
Posted by Kalle (kafir forever) 2005-05-29 16:29||   2005-05-29 16:29|| Front Page Top

#41 We'll see what other countries will do.
Why vote on a corpse?
Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-29 16:35||   2005-05-29 16:35|| Front Page Top

#42 Many NO-proponents on tv claim that it's a victory for anti-capitalism in France. Looks like their beef is that the EUSR is not similar enough to the USSR.

On the other hand, non-leftists see it as evidence of a clash between the people and the MSM + other "elite".

Both camps are calling for Chirac to resign.

Prediction: the next French national elections will put socialists and communists back in power -- unless Europe undergoes a blog revolution and France finds itself a new Frédéric Bastiat.
Posted by Kalle (kafir forever) 2005-05-29 16:38||   2005-05-29 16:38|| Front Page Top

#43 Expect Blair to say "Look, there's no point in us having a vote, is there?, really?" and heave a great sigh of relief.

Didn't the Dutch government said that they wouldn't necessary abide by the vote, rather using it 'as a guide'?
Posted by Tony (UK) 2005-05-29 16:41||   2005-05-29 16:41|| Front Page Top

#44 So, what happened?? Was this a vote solely against Chiraq, or against the new constitution? or perhaps against the EU's enlargement?
Posted by Rafael 2005-05-29 16:41||   2005-05-29 16:41|| Front Page Top

#45 From the outside it looks as if the French were unwilling to submit themselves to a more competitive economic regime. They don't want to compete in services etc. on an open footing.

That's my read of it, anyway .... and that 29.5% of eligible voters who abstained from either a yes or a no suggests that hopes for a more pro-US stance or more open economy are not justified.
Posted by too true 2005-05-29 16:52||   2005-05-29 16:52|| Front Page Top

#46 I can't be too jubilant because I wouldn't like to be lumped with many people who voted NON, for the wrong reasons.
The truth is, I don't want Europe to fail, I want it to be a democratic success.
Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-29 17:01||   2005-05-29 17:01|| Front Page Top

#47 I have a note off sadness however not because that stinking treaty has been rejected but because it has been rejected or approved for the bad reasons.

The people who rejected it because they didn't want France dissolving in the EU. Call them patriots, nationalists or chauvinistics but at least they were coherent.

But then there are the people who voted NO because they feared the EU would destroy the semi-socialist French system. And there are the people who voted YES because they have wet dreams of France dominating world by using the EU as a lever and by having the French jokey riding the German donkey horse.

But the real issue was about democracy. In my agenda there is only one way to make a Constitution: by an elected assembly, preferently one elected specially for the occasion. Then there is a discussion in that assembly and ideally the end result is conformed through a referendum.

But it is undemocratic to have a small assembly of arbitrarily nominated people to make a text and then try to force it down upon the throats of the people telling them that bthe result is not negotiable and that if they vote NO it will be the end of times.

So it is very simple: if text is made by an unelected body then I don't even need to read it. It is NO

Another point: a Constitution must handle ONLY matters concerning the respective powers of executive, legislative and judicial plus the rights of the citizens. When a Constitution pretends to define policies (cf "the EU will have a spatial policy" or "the EU will protect the physical and moral health of sportsmen") then two things happen: you restrict the capability of the government to adapt to a moving situation (a Constitution is by necassity a document who is difficult to modify) and the second consequence is that elections are voided of their meaning when whatever the result: the guy who has been elected will have to apply the same policy then why to have elections at all?

Thus it is very simple: if you can't read the Constitution in less than half an hour then the Constitution is dealing in matters who should be left to the people and its representatives. If Constitution is 500 pages then something is wrong with it, and thus NO.

Posted by JFM">JFM  2005-05-29 17:16||   2005-05-29 17:16|| Front Page Top

#48 I wouldn't call this a failure of Europe but rather a return to sanity perhaps (when viewed as a vote strictly on the constitution). OTOH, you're right regarding the dubiousness of the many people who voted 'no'.
Posted by Rafael 2005-05-29 17:16||   2005-05-29 17:16|| Front Page Top

#49 The weakening of Chirac has the positive effect of strengthening Sarkozy and he is one of the rare French politicians who is not antiamerican (the most heinous anti-americanism is not in the communist daily but in the rabidly pro-europeists "Le Monde" and "Le Point"). But someone (1) has filtered to the press that there are tensions between Sarkozy and his wife, then Sarkozy admitted it on TV, and now some people (2) have suggested that she has cheated on him. In France a politician cheating on his wife is no big deal a problem but being cheated can destroy a carreer.

(1) Who is in the best position to know about the private life of a citizen but the minister of the Police ie our old friend Dominique de Villepin?

(2) Many see the hand of Chirac behind the whole thing.
Posted by JFM">JFM  2005-05-29 17:40||   2005-05-29 17:40|| Front Page Top

#50 JFM, I mostly concur with your assessment of the Constitution.
Re Dominique... you think he might eye the Elysee?
Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-29 17:44||   2005-05-29 17:44|| Front Page Top

#51 Bravo, France for making the right choice, even if it was for the wrong reason.
They know in their hearts that the EU is a crock of merde!
Will we next see Jacques ChIRAQ getting the boot? Let's hope.
Then come the trials for corruption and fraud!
"Sarko" still sounds pretty promising.
Now that they've said "Ta guele" to the EU constitution, dare we hope for a return to the franc and that the EUro can be put in the poubelle?
Posted by Jennie Taliaferro">Jennie Taliaferro  2005-05-29 17:50|| http://www.greatestjeneration.com]">[http://www.greatestjeneration.com]  2005-05-29 17:50|| Front Page Top

#52 TGA

I am persuaded Domininue eyes the Elysee and that Chirac would like him to be his successor (Chirac acts like if he had fallen on his spell, and hasn't fired him after his distarous advice on the 1997 dissolution).

But now the chief of the party is neither Villepin or Chirac but Sarkozy and the referendum has strongly weakened Chirac's influence on the party so no way he could get the UMP nominating Villepin. And difficult for him (Chirac) getting the nomination.
Posted by JFM">JFM  2005-05-29 18:04||   2005-05-29 18:04|| Front Page Top

#53 Well JFM, he could ask Sarkozy to be PM... that might kill him...
Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-29 18:07||   2005-05-29 18:07|| Front Page Top

#54 Btw, I'm watching French TV all night and Giscard is nowhere to be seen...

I think the French people committed Lèse majesté...
Posted by True German Ally 2005-05-29 18:09||   2005-05-29 18:09|| Front Page Top

#55 Bravo to the French! A stepforward. Now prosecute Chirac for his crimes after he's out of office
Posted by Frank G">Frank G  2005-05-29 18:21||   2005-05-29 18:21|| Front Page Top

#56 Yes, I noticed the same thing. Giscard is nowhere to be seen. I didn't expect so much cowardice of him: after all his losy work is one of the main reasons the voters rejected the Constitution.

BTW: I have been watching Antenne 2 and I trealized that in the debates the YES side was getting over 80% of the speaking time, with the NO people being silenced by the moderator: my tax euros at work.
Posted by JFM">JFM  2005-05-29 18:24||   2005-05-29 18:24|| Front Page Top

#57 dare we hope for a return to the franc and that the EUro can be put in the poubelle?

the Euro is actually the good part of the EU experiment, so long as the remaining non-Euro countries don't join. Having twenty-something currencies is a nuisance, one is plain stupid, 3,4,5 is optimum for everyone concerned :)
Posted by Rafael 2005-05-29 18:29||   2005-05-29 18:29|| Front Page Top

#58 But, Rafael, the EU isn't tied to anything (much less gold!) except the (past) performance of the members' economies and that's been pretty bad in reality.
I think the EUro has been doing so well on the currency market because bazillionaires like Soros and the Clown Princes of Saudi Arabia have been buying it to hurt the dollar and the U.S..
Once markets face how bankrupt the EU really is and based on its future prospects as a muscular "common market," it will drop like a rock.
The only hope for EU member countries is to return to running their own budgets, markets and industries as sovereign nation-states and not by Socialist policy wonks in Brussels!
(And on a local level, IIRC, going to the EU caused mucho inflation of prices all over the EU, which is still the case now.)
Posted by Jennie Taliaferro">Jennie Taliaferro  2005-05-29 18:38|| http://www.greatestjeneration.com]">[http://www.greatestjeneration.com]  2005-05-29 18:38|| Front Page Top

#59 I think you're missing the main value of a shared currency. It removes many inefficiencies in trade. If it were the ONLY currency available, it would be too susceptible to manipulation by authorities, but with a few others active in the EU, it serves a useful role.
Posted by too true 2005-05-29 18:46||   2005-05-29 18:46|| Front Page Top

#60 tt, what are you saying, exactly?
The whole point of the EU is that it could be manipulated at will by the Secretariat of the Supreme Soviet EU in Brussels, regardless of how member countries were performing.
Hence we have the spectacle of Brussels "forgiving" France, Germany and Italy for falling far below their target economic growth rates, for which they were supposed to pay fines (?) and to which the alleged value of the EUro is pegged.
Posted by Jennie Taliaferro">Jennie Taliaferro  2005-05-29 22:29|| http://www.greatestjeneration.com]">[http://www.greatestjeneration.com]  2005-05-29 22:29|| Front Page Top

#61 A cautionary note here: the most implacable French opponents of the constitution are also the most anti-American and anti-capitalist. OTOH my take is that what they are rejecting is the notion of a more "competitive" EU, ie one that will liberalize its labor markets and thereby grow fast enough to truly challenge the US in the strategic and international realm. So it's a vote against not just Americanization but also the EU elites' dreams of superpower grandeur. Net-net, the Non represents an outcome favorable to US interests.
Posted by thibaud (aka lex) 2005-05-29 23:27||   2005-05-29 23:27|| Front Page Top

#62 a longer version of above: The EU elites have entirely misread the public. The prevailing mood in Germany, Italy, Holland and France is one of frustration and disappointment with the political class. Kaletsky is right that unemployment and stagnation explain much of this, but my colleagues and friends in France and Italy also indicate a strong belief that the elites are focused on grand ambitions in the international sphere, to the exclusion of domestic needs.

It's a bit like the pro-Perot mood we saw in the US in 1991-92 and to a lesser extent in the runup to the NAFTA debate. Ordinary Europeans who do not work for multinationals or for the EU do not have any interest in the grand project to make the EU into a superpower rival to the US. They want what most people in most countries want: greater economic security.

I suspect that continental west Europeans perceive, correctly, that to the extent the EU elites pursue their chimera of an economically-competitive EU that can and will stand up to the US, there will be less economic security for ordinary Europeans.

The people get it: can't challenge the hyperpower without becoming more like the hyperpower. Setting out to preserve the distinctly unAmerican nature of the EU against a supposedly rapacious US hyperpower, the EU elites will have to scale back EU social policies.

The illogic of the EU's amerophobic mission is coming around to bite them in the ass. Most Europeans are simply asking why it's not enough for Europe to be quietly prosperous, peaceful and a minor player on the world stage. Can't blame 'em
Posted by thibaud (aka lex) 2005-05-29 23:29||   2005-05-29 23:29|| Front Page Top

23:49 Jennie Taliaferro
23:47 Rafael
23:35 thibaud (aka lex)
23:29 thibaud (aka lex)
23:27 thibaud (aka lex)
22:37 macofromoc
22:29 Jennie Taliaferro
22:16 CrazyFool
22:14 mhw
22:13 Frank G
22:11 trailing wife
22:03 Frank G
21:56 trailing wife
21:52 Ptah
21:51 trailing wife
21:24 Frank G
21:23 Frank G
21:13 Frank G
21:13 Ptah
21:09 Jackal
20:59 Tony (UK)
20:53 CrazyFool
20:47 Jackal
20:39 Frank G









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